西南山地区域森林火险综合预报模型研究——以重庆市为例

森林火灾严重破坏森林生态系统的结构和功能,针对其风险预报开展研究具有重要的理论意义和应用价值。通过融合气象、地表覆盖和人类活动等要素的方式构建森林火险综合预报模型,是西南山地区域森林火险综合预报业务化应用的重要发展方向。基于《森林火险气象等级》国家标准(GB/T 36743-2018),本文研究首先构建了重庆市森林火险气象风险预报模型。然后通过融合可燃物因素和人为因素的方式,进一步构建重庆市森林火险综合预报模型。最后利用历史火点数据针对上述两类模型的精度进行对比和分析。研究结果表明:重庆市森林火灾发生次数较多,且呈现出季节性规律;重庆市森林火灾的发生不仅受到气象条件的影响,而且受到地表覆盖和人类活动等多种要素条件的共同影响;与森林火险气象风险预报结果相比,森林火险综合预报结果在空间分布上具有更高的精细程度;森林火险综合预报模型能有效提高森林火险等级预报精度。     

屏蔽服冷却系统对人体表面温度影响的研究*

为科学有效地论证多种方式组合的冷却屏蔽服在不同环境条件下对人体表面温度控制的效果，需要对冷却系统及人体敏感部位发热量进行客观评估。通过对5名健康男性的高温测试，探究人体在不同环境温度下体表温度的变化，得出胸部、背部及额头为热量最高部位，并构建以“人体-降温屏蔽服-外界环境”为主体的冷却系统数值模型，对不同环境中的屏蔽服冷却效果展开研究，分析穿戴冷却屏蔽服时人体躯干部分的温度分布及影响。结果表明:在屏蔽服中靠近胸部、背部部位引入相变材料和风扇，均可帮助人体降低体温，提高舒适度。     

钙钛矿型催化剂催化湿式氧化处理煤气化废水纳滤浓缩液

采用溶胶-凝胶法制备了Mn掺杂钙钛矿型催化剂LaFexMn1-xO3，并以其为催化剂催化湿式双氧水氧化处理煤气化废水纳滤浓缩液。采用XRD，SEM，FTIR技术对催化剂进行了表征。表征结果显示：制备的催化剂均具有标准的钙钛矿型结构，其中，LaFe0.9Mn0.1O3的结构稳定，比表面积大。实验结果表明：制备的催化剂中LaFe0.9Mn0.1O3的催化活性最高，且稳定性好，连续使用5次后催化活性未见明显减弱；在H2O2投加量3.0 g/L、n（H2O2）∶n（LaFe0.9Mn0.1O3）=12∶1、反应温度160 ℃、反应压力1 MPa、浓缩液pH 3、反应时间60 min的最优条件下，COD、UV254和TOC的去除率分别达到80.9%、95.2%和68.0%，BOD5/COD由0.02提升至0.40，可生化性大幅提高。     

Safety assessment of the film boiling chemical vapor infiltration (FB-CVI) process through a system-theoretic accident model and process (STAMP)

Film boiling chemical vapor infiltration (FB-CVI) is considered as one of the fastest process methodologies for manufacturing carbon-carbon (C–C) composite products and possesses various advantages compared to conventional methodologies. However, there are safety concerns associated with this process for large-scale manufacturing, mainly owing to the intrinsic nature of the precursor and the process conditions. Considering the multifunctional interactions of the various systems during the process, a system-theoretic process analysis (STPA)/system theoretic accident model and process (STAMP) model is used to perform a safety analysis of the hazardous states of the FB-CVI process at the system level. As a case study, the FB-CVI process equipment employed for the manufacturing of C–C composites is considered. The safety constraints present in the system are assessed for adequacy through a hazard analysis by STPA/STAMP. The analysis through STPA/STAMP demonstrated the capability to create proactive strategies for the design and realization of process equipment that can be employed to manufacture C–C composite products through the FB-CVI process.     

Change in avian functional fingerprints of a Neotropical montane forest over 100 years as an indicator of ecosystem integrity

Ecologically relevant traits of organisms in an assemblage determine an ecosystem's functional fingerprint (i.e., the shape, size, and position of multidimensional trait space). Quantifying changes in functional fingerprints can therefore provide information about the effects of diversity loss or gain through time on ecosystem condition and is a promising approach to monitoring ecological integrity. This, however, is seldom possible owing to limitations in historical surveys and a lack of data on organismal traits, particularly in diverse tropical regions. Using data from detailed bird surveys from 4 periods across more than a century, and morphological and ecological traits of 233 species, we quantified changes in the avian functional fingerprint of a tropical montane forest in the Andes of Colombia. We found that 78% of the variation in functional space, regardless of period, was described by 3 major axes summarizing body size, dispersal ability (indexed by wing shape), and habitat breadth. Changes in species composition significantly altered the functional fingerprint of the assemblage and functional richness and dispersion decreased 35–60%. Owing to species extirpations and to novel additions to the assemblage, functional space decreased over time, but at least 11% of its volume in the 2010s extended to areas of functional space that were unoccupied in the 1910s. The assemblage now includes fewer large-sized species, more species with greater dispersal ability, and fewer habitat specialists. Extirpated species had high functional uniqueness and distinctiveness, resulting in large reductions in functional richness and dispersion after their loss, which implies important consequences for ecosystem integrity. Conservation efforts aimed at maintaining ecosystem function must move beyond seeking to sustain species numbers to designing complementary strategies for the maintenance of ecological function by identifying and conserving species with traits conferring high vulnerability such as large body size, poor dispersal ability, and greater habitat specialization. Article impact statement: Changes in functional fingerprints provide a means to quantify the integrity of ecological assemblages affected by diversity loss or gain.     

Using environmental and geographic data to optimize ex situ collections and preserve evolutionary potential

Maintenance of biodiversity through seed banks and botanical gardens, where the wealth of species’ genetic variation may be preserved ex situ, is a major goal of conservation. However, challenges can persist in optimizing ex situ collections if trade-offs exist among cost, effort, and conserving species evolutionary potential, particularly when genetic data are not available. We evaluated the genetic consequences of population preservation informed by geographic (isolation by distance [IBD]) and environmental (isolation by environment [IBE]) distance for ex situ collections for which population provenance is available. We used 19 genetic and genomic data sets from 15 plant species to assess the proportion of population genetic differentiation explained by geographic and environmental factors and to simulate ex situ collections prioritizing source populations based on pairwise geographic distance, environmental distance, or both. Specifically, we tested the impact prioritizing sampling based on these distances may have on the capture of neutral, functional, or putatively adaptive genetic diversity and differentiation. Individually, IBD and IBE explained limited population genetic differences across all 3 genetic marker classes (IBD, 10–16%; IBE, 1–5.5%). Together, they explained a substantial proportion of population genetic differences for functional (45%) and adaptive (71%) variation. Simulated ex situ collections revealed that inclusion of IBD, IBE, or both increased allelic diversity and genetic differentiation captured among populations, particularly for loci that may be important for adaptation. Thus, prioritizing population collections based on environmental and geographic distance data can optimize genetic variation captured ex situ. For the vast majority of plant species for which there is no genetic information, these data are invaluable to conservation because they can guide preservation of genetic variation needed to maintain evolutionary potential within collections.     

Application of environmentally conscious manufacturing strategies for an automotive component

Application of appropriate environmentally conscious manufacturing strategies enables the sustainable development of products and processes. Automotive component manufacturers recognise the potential of applying appropriate strategies for attaining Triple Bottom Line benefits. In this context, three strategies such as eco-efficiency, waste minimisation and material efficiency are being applied to minimise environmental impacts associated with the manufacture of automotive products and its associated processes. A case study of an automotive component manufacturing firm has been exemplified. After conducting the study, the potential environmental impact was reduced by 20% and eco-efficiency was improved by 13%. Further, improvements have been observed in terms of overall resource consumption and material efficiency. The overall power consumption was reduced by 18% and weight of the component was reduced by 11%. The study aimed at improving the sustainable performance of product by incorporating green and environmentally friendlier manufacturing practices.

Abbreviations: USEPA: United Nations Environmental Protection Agency; OECD: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development; WBCSD: World Business Council for Sustainable Development; Eco-QFD: Environmental Quality Function Deployment; WCED: World Commission on Environment and Development; LCA: Life Cycle Assessment     

Ti3C2纳米层状材料对废水中Cr（Ⅵ）的光催化去除性能

以Ti₃AlC₂为原料,采用HF刻蚀工艺制备出12种Ti₃C₂纳米层状材料,对其形貌进行了表征,并考察了以其作为光催化剂对废水中Cr（Ⅵ）的处理效果。实验结果表明：HF体积分数为80%、刻蚀时间为48 h时得到的MX-80-48的形貌较好;MX-80-48具有类似石墨烯的二维层状结构,纳米层厚度约20~50 nm,孔径2~10 nm,比表面积14.8 m²/g,在400~700 nm可见光范围内表现出强烈的吸光性;当Cr（Ⅵ）的初始质量浓度为40.00 mg/L、MX-80-48投加量为200 mg/L、pH=2、反应时间4 h（暗反应1 h+光照3 h）时,Cr（Ⅵ）去除率可达100%。     

基于模糊推理的FRAM事故定量分析方法研究

为有效克服FRAM事故分析中无法进行定量分析的缺陷，提出结合模糊推理技术的Fuzzy FRAM模型。此改进模型基于FRAM识别系统运行状态；依据功能输出要素的时间/精度属性利用Matlab构建2阶模糊推理系统量化功能输出质量；根据通用性能条件(CPC)及功能输入耦合端口构建功能评价体系，针对评价体系中存在的不确定性信息融合及建模问题，采用模糊证据推理技术，通过模糊信度结构建立、数据处理、信息融合测度后获得功能的风险指数;以既有铁路危险品运输事故为例，验证方法的可行性。结果表明:Fuzzy FRAM模型的评估结果较为精确，是FRAM分析方法的有效补充。     

瓦斯抽采PC-CAS基封孔材料优化及其膨胀作用分析*

为了研制以硅酸盐/铝酸盐水泥、生石灰、生石膏为主的PC-CAS基封孔材料，采用正交试验优化材料配比、开展膨胀力研究，并用扫描电镜观测料-煤胶结形貌。研究结果表明:材料的最优配比为A2B2C4，其具备优良的流动性、强度及致密性，造浆量达2 100 mL/kg；PC-CAS基材料具有显著的膨胀性，其膨胀力随时间先增大而后趋于稳定，并且该膨胀力随着径向约束的提高而增大；相比于FP材料，PC-CAS基材料产生的膨胀力能够显著降低材料-煤岩界面的空隙并在一定程度上压密煤体内部的裂隙；该材料产生的膨胀力可压密封孔段围岩、提高封孔质量，并为后期“二次注浆”提供保压条件。工业试验结果表明，采用PC-CAS基材料进行封孔可显著改善抽采效果，将原有平均浓度10.11%提升至20.08%。