冷空气在北上台风“利奇马”致灾暴雨中的作用分析

利用NCEP逐6 h再分析资料、地面加密观测、探空、雷达资料,分析得出“利奇马”致灾暴雨是在长时间稳定维持的天气尺度环流背景下形成的。冷空气在降水所起的作用表现在:(1)长时间维持的弱冷空气与偏南暖湿气流交汇形成了边界层辐合线,辐射升温和暖湿气流的输送加大了辐合线两侧的温度和露点梯度,在高温高湿的有利环境下,对流在辐合线附近强烈发展。(2)高空槽后冷空气由“利奇马”环流西北侧渗入,先后形成3个冷平流中心,分别对应3个阶段的降水。(3)冷暖空气在降水区的持续辐合抬升作用增强了降水,最强降水时段发生在锋区垂直方向坡度最大的时段。(4)水平锋生有利于水汽输送和辐合抬升,垂直锋生有利于对流不稳定能量的累积和触发。冷空气形成的水平辐合和抬升造成大范围上升运动,使得锋生和垂直锋消同时存在,最强降水时段发生在水平锋生最强的时段。     

超低空航拍技术在输变电环评工作中的应用研究

分析了环评工作中收集的影像资料存在的问题，提出了超低空航拍的解决方法。通过对比分析，选择了多旋翼无人机作为超低空航拍平台。该设备具有携带方便，飞行稳性的优点。从实际应用效果来看，基于该技术获得的影像信息含量全面、工作效率高、评价结果更客观可信，为提高环评工作质量提供了一个可靠的技术方案。     

化学环境下的应力-渗流耦合对尾 矿库稳定性影响试验

通过扫描电镜（FE-SEM）、能谱分析（EDX）、X射线衍射（XRD）、LMS-30激光粒度分析等室内试验探究了尾矿库内存在的酸、碱离子对尾矿颗粒的沉降、微观形貌、物质组成以及粒径级配的影响；建立酸、碱影响下的孔隙比与渗透系数的数学关系模型，并将建立的模型用来表征尾矿库内的应力渗-流场两场耦合机制，实现代入有限元计算软件的目的。结果表明:化学因素的存在影响着尾矿颗粒的多项性状，酸性环境下尾矿颗粒发生溶蚀，部分金属元素流失；碱性环境下尾矿颗粒间生成胶结物质，孔隙出现以含氢氧化铁为主的絮状、团簇状堵塞物，改变了渗流速度；尾矿库内浸润线高度在碱性、中性、酸性环境下依次降低，而渗流速度依次升高。     

大气细颗粒物在线源解析方法研究进展

基于对国内外关于PM2.5化学组分特征、二次气溶胶生成机理、源解析模型的研究综述,引入实现PM2.5在线源解析的2种可能方法,即气溶胶质谱+解析算法与3类化学组分组合观测+受体模型。重点阐述了气溶胶质谱及在线水溶性离子、EC/OC和金属元素仪器的应用研究现状,并分析了不同仪器测定结果的可靠性、优势及缺陷,在此基础上提出加强城市尺度的大气化学二次反应机理及关键技术参数研究、大气颗粒物化学组分连续观测应用于在线源解析的研究、基于多种信息来源和技术手段的在线源解析方法集成研究等建议。     

城市环境总体规划中大气环境红线内涵及划定技术

城市环境总体规划是一项重大环境管理制度创新,目前全国已启动了24个城市的环境总体规划编制工作,其中划定环境红线是城市环境总体规划的核心内容。本文结合福州、宜昌、平潭等城市环境总体规划编制实践,首次提出了大气环境红线的技术框架,将大气环境红线划分为源头布局敏感区、污染易聚集区及敏感的环境受体三类,并创新性建立了大气环境红线划定技术方法,初步构建了适用于城市环境总体规划的空间规划技术体系。     

公路线源大气环境影响预测方法对比分析研究

文章通过从模式原理、范围和特点等方面对AERMOD大气预测模式与EIAA预测模式进行对比分析,以甘肃省天水段G310国道升级改造项目为例,分别采用AERMOD和EIAA两种模式对交通线源排放的特征污染因子CO在各环境空气敏感点的小时最大浓度进行预测,并对预测值与实测值进行对比分析,探讨两种模式在公路线源大气环境影响预测中的适用性及差异性。以期为今后开展道路交通类建设项目大气环境影响预测评价中模式的选取提供参考和借鉴。     

对生态红线的研究——宁夏生态红线划定的问题和思考

为了贯彻国家的可持续发展战略,更有效地解决中国的环境危机以及更好地进行中国的生态文明建设,就必须建立底线思维.中央第十八届三中全会通过的《中共中央关于全面深化改革若干重大问题的决定》明确规定了要划定生态保护红线.通过对生态保护红线的相关文献和政策进行分析,提出生态红线的类型和划定的思考,结合生态红线落地问题,对宁夏生态红线划定中存在的问题进行思考,以期为全国生态红线划定和生态保护提供参考.     

Did Child Restraint Laws Globally Converge? Examining 40 Years of Policy Diffusion

Objective: The objective of the current study is to determine what factors have been associated with the global adoption of mandatory child restraint laws (ChRLs) since 1975.

Methods: In order to determine what factors explained the global adoption of mandatory ChRLs, Weibull models were analyzed. To carry out this analysis, 170 countries were considered and the time risk corresponded to 5,146 observations for the period 1957–2013. The dependent variable was first time to adopt a ChRL. Independent variables representing global factors were the World Health Organization (WHO) and World Bank's (WB) road safety global campaign; the Geneva Convention on Road Traffic; and the United Nation's (UN) 1958 Vehicle Agreement. Independent variables representing regional factors were the creation of the European Transport Safety Council and being a Commonwealth country. Independent variables representing national factors were population; gross domestic product (GDP) per capita; political violence; existence of road safety nongovernmental organizations (NGOs); and existence of road safety agencies. Urbanization served as a control variable. To examine regional dynamics, Weibull models for Africa, Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, the Caribbean, and the Commonwealth were also carried out.

Results: Empirical estimates from full Weibull models suggest that 2 global factors and 2 national factors are significantly associated with the adoption of this measure. The global factors explaining adoption are the WHO and WB's road safety global campaign implemented after 2004 (P <.01), and the UN's 1958 Vehicle Agreement (P <.001). National factors were GDP (P <.01) and existence of road safety agencies (P <.05). The time parameter ρ for the full Weibull model was 1.425 (P <.001), suggesting that the likelihood of ChRL adoption increased over the observed period of time, confirming that the diffusion of this policy was global. Regional analysis showed that the UN's Convention on Road Traffic was significant in Asia, the creation of the European Transport Safety Council was significant in Europe and North America, and the global campaign was in Africa. In Commonwealth and European and North American countries, the existence of road safety agencies was also positively associated with ChRL adoption.

Conclusions: Results of the world models suggest that the WHO and WB's global road safety campaign was effective in disseminating ChRLs after 2004. Furthermore, regions such as Asia and Europe and North America were early adopters since specific regional and national characteristics anticipated the introduction of this policy before 2004. In this particular case, the creation of the European Transport Safety Council was fundamental in promoting ChRLs. Thus, in order to introduce conditions to more rapidly diffuse road safety measures across lagging regions, the maintenance of global efforts and the creation of road safety regional organizations should be encouraged. Lastly, the case of ChRL convergence illustrates how mechanisms of global and regional diffusion need to be analytically differentiated in order better to assess the process of policy diffusion.     

高寒条件下振弦式传感器在线测量尾矿坝浸润线的误差分析及对策

为减少和消除高寒条件下振弦式传感器在线测量浸润线的误差,通过理论分析和现场试验,对造成误差的因素及其影响情况进行了深入研究。结果表明,振弦式传感器产生测量误差的主要来源为设备安装深度的测量误差与尾矿水密度及重力加速度的取值误差,并提出了减少或消除误差的方法和工程技术措施,为高寒地区的浸润线在线精确测量提供了重要指导意义。     

中国服务业碳生产率的空间收敛性研究

在经济服务化与低碳化的双重背景下,研究中国服务业碳生产率的演变轨迹,区域差异及空间收敛特征,对于推动中国服务业高质量发展具有重要的意义。采用2004—2016年中国30个省(区、市)的面板数据,对服务业碳生产率进行测度,并对其演变轨迹与区域差异进行分析,在此基础上,系统考察中国服务业碳生产率的空间收敛性。研究表明:①中国服务业碳生产率在整体上呈逐年增长态势,且呈现从东到西逐次递减的格局。②中国服务业碳生产率存在正向空间自相关关系,并且空间自相关程度表现出波动上升趋势。③全国与西部服务业碳生产率均不存在σ收敛,即服务业碳生产率的地区差异并未随着时间的推移而缩小;东、中部服务业碳生产率则在整体上呈现σ收敛特征。全国以及东、中、西部服务业碳生产率均存在绝对β收敛和条件β收敛,即服务业碳生产率落后地区对发达地区存在"追赶效应",各地区服务业碳生产率最终向自身的稳态水平趋同;空间效应加快了全国与东部服务业碳生产率的β收敛速度。④人均服务业增加值增长速度、部门结构以及能源消费结构对服务业碳生产率具有显著的负向效应,人力资本则对服务业碳生产率产生了显著的正向影响。据此,本文的政策启示如下:①重视服务业碳排放问题,构建服务业低碳绩效评估体系。②探索建立定期会商制度,加强服务业低碳技术的跨区域交流合作。③完善基础设施,促进要素空间互动和优化重组。④调整服务业能源结构与部门结构,推进人力资本积累和服务业稳增长。