Developing shared qualitative models for complex systems

Understanding complex systems is essential to ensure their conservation and effective management. Models commonly support understanding of complex ecological systems and, by extension, their conservation. Modeling, however, is largely a social process constrained by individuals’ mental models (i.e., a small-scale internal model of how a part of the world works based on knowledge, experience, values, beliefs, and assumptions) and system complexity. To account for both system complexity and the diversity of knowledge of complex systems, we devised a novel way to develop a shared qualitative complex system model. We disaggregated a system (carbonate coral reefs) into smaller subsystem modules that each represented a functioning unit, about which an individual is likely to have more comprehensive knowledge. This modular approach allowed us to elicit an individual mental model of a defined subsystem for which the individuals had a higher level of confidence in their knowledge of the relationships between variables. The challenge then was to bring these subsystem models together to form a complete, shared model of the entire system, which we attempted through 4 phases: develop the system framework and subsystem modules; develop the individual mental model elicitation methods; elicit the mental models; and identify and isolate differences for exploration and identify similarities to cocreate a shared qualitative model. The shared qualitative model provides opportunities to develop a quantitative model to understand and predict complex system change.     

混合酸消解变化对土壤和沉积物中痕量硒分析影响

基于各3种采集环境样本、国家标准物质的土壤和沉积物,以当前环境监测行业常用的3种消解方法,探讨20种混合酸系统条件在消解条件变化中对复杂样本硒元素测定的影响。确定了最佳土壤和沉积物消解的组合为王水系统(盐酸∶硝酸∶氢氟酸∶过氧化氢∶高氯酸=3∶1∶1∶1∶1),各消解法的处理结果部分(n=5)∶水浴法消解时间仅需0.5h,总处理时间2h,准确度回收率达101%~104%,精密度RSD为1.95%~2.20%;电热板法总处理时间较长(7.5h),回收率106%,RSD偏高为8.46%,不推荐使用;微波法处理的总时间亦长达7.0h,回收率93.8%,但精密度亦偏高为8.24%,因此采用水浴法应用于环境样本的测定。该优化消解方法已直接应用于环境中农业、建筑用土和管道淤泥沉积物的3种样品类型前处理,利用同一优化条件即可快速对应土壤和沉积物性质样品,单次可批量处理72~84个样本,解决高通量样品痕量硒测定需求,提供环境污染监测和检测行业一参考依据。     

Changes in electrical generator cooling systems: Are they cost-effective sources of water now and under climate change?

In the United States, thermal power plant electrical generators (EGs) are large water diverters and consumptive users who need water for cooling. Retrofitting existing cooling systems to dry cooling and building new facilities with dry cooling can save water and reduce EG's vulnerability to drought. However, this can be an expensive source of water. We estimate that the cost of water saved by retrofitting cooling in existing EGs ranges from $0.04/m³ to $18/m³ depending on facility characteristics. Also water savings from building new EGs with dry cooling ranges in cost per unit water from $1.29/m³ to $2.24/m³. We compare costs with that for water development projects identified in the Texas State Water Plan. We find the water cost from converting to dry cooling is lower than many of the water development possibilities. We then estimate the impact of climate change on the cost of water saved, finding climate change can increase EG water use by up to 9.3% and lower the costs of water saved. Generally, it appears that water planners might consider cooling alterations as a cost competitive water development alternative whose cost would be further decreased by climate change.     

土壤镉污染修复方法及生物修复研究进展

土壤镉污染主要由人为活动引起,镉在土壤环境体系中存在复杂多变的形态,文章介绍了土壤镉污染对生物体的危害性及其修复方法,综述了生物修复技术处理镉污染土壤的研究进展,并提出了展望。     

土地集约利用空间分异研究中指标标准化方法研究

土地集约利用空间分异研究中指标标准化通常采用极差标准化等方法,这类方法默认各区域集约临界值相同,从而使得评价中区位好的区域土地集约水平高于区位差的区域。基于级差地租Ⅰ和级差地租Ⅱ理论提出新的指标标准化方法,指出传统指标标准化方法的问题,并以重庆市耕地集约利用空间分异为例进行实证比较。研究充分考虑了不同区域因禀赋差异造成的单项指标理想值(临界值)的差异,弥补了传统指标标准化方法的不足,有助于完善土地集约利用空间分异的研究。研究表明:土地利用集约度是一个相对概念,其参照物为区域土地集约临界点,理论基础是级差地租Ⅱ;区位不同导致区域间土地利用强度存在差异,它是级差地租Ⅰ的一类现象,这类差异可称为"禀赋差异";每个区位点适度指标标准化值Y与该区位指标现状值x₁₁和集约临界点x₁有关,与其他区位指标现状值无关;传统标准化方法将指标现状值或现状平均值设为集约临界值,没有考虑不同区位集约临界点差异,因而空间分异结果更符合土地收益空间分异规律;重庆市耕地集约利用度空间分异研究表明该方法在空间分异、集约度绝对值和区县集约度比较等方面优于传统方法,更符合不同区县耕地利用实际。     

CGE模型在水资源研究中的应用与展望

文章简要介绍了CGE模型及其在水资源研究中的应用,归纳了水资源在模型中的处理方法,分析了CGE模型应用于水资源研究中存在的问题,并对未来发展趋势进行了展望。从处理水资源问题的方法看,约束条件、要素、中间投入和综合处理等4 种方法是主要的建模手段,并随着数据和建模技术的发展,模型向精细化、复杂化和贴近实际发展。尽管CGE模型在水资源研究中的应用仍然受制于模型本身的缺陷以及对水资源问题的认识和处理方式,但随着理论发展、数据完善,CGE模型在水资源研究中的应用会逐步朝着标准化、模块化、精细化和实用化的方向发展。     

木兰县饮用水源地水质状况分析研究

2012年木兰县监测站对木兰县饮用水源地水质状况进行了监测,监测了六项常规的监测项目,其中包括:pH、总硬度、铁、锰、浑浊度、总大肠菌群.通过这些监测数据可知,木兰县饮用水源地中pH、总硬度、浑浊度均能达到中国《生活饮用水卫生标准》和国家《地下水质量标准》(GB 14848-93)规定,总大肠菌群四个季度均未检出,但铁的含量在第三季度出现超标情况,锰的含量在第一、二、三季度出现超标,本文分析了超标的成因及处理的方法,并提出建议.     

汽车工业中水回用于冷却水系统的研究

汽车生产过程中伴随着大量的自来水消耗与废水排放,因此,汽车工业具有较大的节能减排潜力.国内某汽车厂采用膜过滤技术对达标排放的废水进行深度处理,中水水质达到冷却水回用标准,作为补充水回用于循环冷却水系统.通过对中水水质的监控和冷却水系统的运行控制,保证中水回用实施效果.结果表明:中水回用后,循环冷却水满足系统运行条件,既节约了自来水的消耗又达到了减少污染物排放的目的,在汽车工业中具有一定的推广应用价值.     

电吸附水处理技术(EST)对污水悬浮物去除效果研究

为了研究电吸附水处理技术(EST)对污水悬浮物的去除效果,本文采用电吸附水处理技术对生活污水中悬浮物进行处理分析,结果表明电吸附水处理系统对悬浮物的去除效果较好,去除率达到74.07%,而电吸附模块本身对悬浮物去除率仅为14.29%,氯离子、进水中悬浮物的浓度及进水中的硬度值均对悬浮物去除效率没有影响。因此,电吸附水处理技术可作为污水处理的一种新型有效方法。     

药品和个人护理用品在固体基底中的检测方法和分布现状

药品和个人护理用品(Pharmaceuticals and personal care products,PPCPs)在环境中广泛存在,威胁生态环境和人类健康,受到越来越多的关注.本文综述了固体基底中PPCPs的检测方法,总结了国内外污泥、土壤、沉积物等基底中PPCPs的污染现状,并对PPCPs的进一步研究进行了展望.结果表明,PPCPs的检测方法朝多样化和趋优化的方向发展.污泥样品中PPCPs种类多、浓度高(μg·kg-1—mg·kg-1),土壤和沉积物中虽然浓度不高,但是总量不可小觑.目前,固体基底中的PPCPs还需要更全面和更广泛的研究.