Temporal trends in agricultural water use and the relationships to hydroclimatic factors in the High Plains aquifer region

The High Plains aquifer (HPA) is the primary water source for agricultural irrigation in the US Great Plains. The water levels in many locations of the aquifer have declined steadily over the past several decades because the rate of water withdrawals exceeds recharge, which has been a serious concern to the water resources management in the region. We evaluated temporal trends and variations in agricultural water use and hydroclimatic variables including precipitation, air temperature, reference evapotranspiration, runoff, groundwater level, and terrestrial water storage across the HPA region for different periods from 1985 to 2020 at the grid, county, or region scale. The results showed that water withdrawals decreased from 21.3 km³/year in 1985 to 18.2 km³/year in 2015, while irrigated croplands increased from 71,928 km² in 1985 to 78,464 km² in 2015 in the entire HPA. The hydroclimatic time-series showed wetting trends in most of the northern HPA, but drying and warming trends in the southern region from 1985 to 2020. The groundwater level time-series indicated flat trends in the north, but significant declining in the central and southern HPA. Trends in irrigation water withdrawals and irrigation area across the HPA were controlled by the advancement of irrigation systems and technologies and the management of sustainable water use, but also were affected by dynamical changes in the hydroclimatic conditions.     

2014年北京市CO浓度水平和时空分布

对北京市地面监测站点的CO浓度进行分析，探讨其浓度水平、变化趋势和时空分布特征。2014年春、夏、秋、冬四季北京市CO平均浓度分别为1.06、0.87、1.34、2.17 mg/m³。CO浓度均呈双峰型变化，第一个峰值出现在07：00-09：00，主要由交通早高峰的排放引起；第二个峰值出现在23：00左右，主要受交通晚高峰排放和夜间边界层高度降低的挤压效应的共同影响。从空间分布来看，全年整体呈现南高北低的分布特征，尤其是秋、冬季较为明显，体现了工业布局和区域传输对CO的影响。从全年来看，湿度对CO浓度的影响最大。对2014年冬季北京市的一次高CO浓度分析结果表明，此次过程是由本地排放和区域传输共同造成的，气象要素中地面气压对CO浓度影响最大。     

循环载荷下煤裂隙演化试验研究

为了研究循环载荷下的煤体裂隙演化特征，在不同应力水平和不同频率条件下分别进行煤样破坏力学及声发射试验。结果表明:应力-应变曲线呈疏-密-疏的变化特征，对应的振铃数柱状图呈U型；上限应力点的应变值、累积能量、撞击计数均随循环次数增加而上升，曲线呈倒S型；煤裂隙演化经历了原始裂隙闭合、新生裂隙稳定发育和裂纹贯穿破坏等3个不同阶段；循环载荷的应力水平和加载频率对煤体疲劳寿命的影响具有差异性，对煤体裂隙演化和破坏模式均有明显影响。     

综合拉底、扩漏和出矿全过程的底部结构安全性颗粒流模拟技术研究

为探明自然崩落法从拉底崩落至出矿全过程中底部结构节理连续扩展过程与破坏过程规律，采用PFC2D软件，结合RocLab软件反演节理岩体参数，建立229 m×129 m的岩体扩大模型，对拉底崩落至出矿过程进行连续综合计算。研究结果表明:模拟结果及破坏现象与现场监测结果相近，建模与细观参数反演方法适用于该类岩体工程研究；裂纹扩展贯通导致岩体失稳破坏，破坏过程与裂纹扩展具有相对应的阶段特征，裂纹扩展分为崩落前稳定扩展期，崩落与聚矿槽开挖过程加速扩展期和后续持续扩展期；结构破坏分为蕴育过程，扰动失稳过程和宏观破坏过程；较大范围的宏观破坏主要在出矿阶段。该模拟方法与结果可为底部结构维护以及节理岩体长期稳定性研究提供参考。     

脆弱性基本原理与控制方法

本文从社会进步导致自反性危机出发,通过对风险承载体脆弱性构成要素暴露度、敏感度、适应度的分析,提出了三特征要素递次演化的模型;并根据脆弱性的递次演化的特点,提出了对脆弱性的辨识和递次管控的基本思路;最后,依据对地铁运行安全管理脆弱性的研究,进行脆弱性管理的实证分析。     

An integrated EDIB model for probabilistic risk analysis of natural gas pipeline leakage accidents

Natural gas pipeline construction is developing rapidly worldwide to meet the needs of international and domestic energy transportation. Meanwhile, leakage accidents occur to natural gas pipelines frequently due to mechanical failure, personal operation errors, etc., and induce huge economic property loss, environmental damages, and even casualties. However, few models have been developed to describe the evolution process of natural gas pipeline leakage accidents (NGPLA) and assess their corresponding consequences and influencing factors quantitatively. Therefore, this study aims to propose a comprehensive risk analysis model, named EDIB (ET-DEMATEL-ISM-BN) model, which can be employed to analyze the accident evolution process of NGPLA and conduct probabilistic risk assessments of NGPLA with the consideration of multiple influencing factors. In the proposed integrated model, event tree analysis (ET) is employed to analyze the evolution process of NGPLA before the influencing factors of accident evolution can be identified with the help of accident reports. Then, the combination of DEMATEL (Decision-making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory) and ISM (Interpretative Structural Modeling) is used to determine the relationship among accident evolution events of NGPLA and obtain a hierarchical network, which can be employed to support the construction of a Bayesian network (BN) model. The prior conditional probabilities of the BN model were determined based on the data analysis of 773 accident reports or expert judgment with the help of the Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. Finally, the developed BN model was used to conduct accident evolution scenario analysis and influencing factor sensitivity analysis with respect to secondary accidents (fire, vapor cloud explosion, and asphyxia or poisoning). The results show that ignition is the most critical influencing factor leading to secondary accidents. The occurrence time and occurrence location of NGPLA mainly affect the efficiency of emergency response and further influence the accident consequence. Meanwhile, the weight ranking of economic loss, environmental influence, and casualties on social influence is determined with respect to NGPLAs.     

克山县空气质量及变化趋势

通过对克山县2003—2012年的空气监测数据分析,二氧化硫和总悬浮物颗粒物呈下降趋势,氮氧化物和降尘浓度变化不大;尘类是影响环境质量的主要污染物,县区环境空气质量呈轻度污染,根据各年度的监测数据来看,环境空气质量逐年得到改善。     

“十一五”期间肇源境内地表水环境质量状况评价及分析

针对我省入境流域肇源,全面开展了十一五期间枯、平、丰水期的河流水环境现状调查,采用秩相关系数法对水环境现状进行评价。研究表明:肇源境内"十一五"期间主要污染因子为高锰酸盐指数、石油类、氨氮和生化需     

甘南县污染源排污状况分析

采用近五年的污染源监测数据,分析了甘南县污染源污染特征,指出了影响甘南县主要污染物及变化趋势。     

新疆昭苏黄土剖面色度变化特征及古气候意义

对受西风影响的伊犁盆地南缘的昭苏波马剖面进行色度指标分析后发现,在黄土堆积期间,亮度L^*在很大程度上受控于颜色分量a^*、b^*,同有机质含量关系密切。在S_* 中亮度L^* 与碳酸钙有较好的相关性,而在L_*中相关性极低。红度a^*受赤铁矿含量的影响最大,其较好的 正相关关系可以很好地反映气候变干的过程。而黄度b^*与针铁矿相关性较差,易受到多方面因 素的影响,对气候转变的敏感性不高。