System dynamics research of non-adaptive evacuation psychology in toxic gas leakage emergencies of chemical park

Chemical industry park plays an important role in optimizing the allocation of resources, but an emergency may make a great deal of personnel casualty and property loss. Many casualties are not the result of accidents but are caused by extreme behavior because of the non-adaptive psychology of the evacuees. Panic is one of the non-adaptive psychological behaviors during an evacuation, which is influenced by a variety of factors. Based on the consideration of the disaster environment and the evolution of crowd emotion, a system dynamics model of panic spread is established by using Anylogic software, and simulation experiments are carried out for different disaster severity, visibility, and groups. The results show that the number of people with severe panic increase when visibility decreases or disaster diffuses. Besides, the appropriate proportion of groups can effectively reduce the cooling time of crowd and ease the fears. However, continue to increase the number of groups has no significant effect on the panic control. This work can provide some reasonable guidance for regional emergency evacuation in chemical park.     

Analysis of crater formation in buried NG pipelines: A survey based on past accidents and evaluation of domino effect

The formation of a crater by the abrupt and catastrophic rupture of a high-pressure pipeline can be highly relevant, especially when the crater uncovers other pipelines, which could undergo a domino effect with a significant increase of the consequences on people or on the environment. However, this scenario has been only partially studied in the literature. To assess the influence of the pipeline parameters on the dimensions of the resulting crater, a statistical analysis of accidental ruptures of buried natural gas pipelines that have involved the formation of a crater was carried out. Mathematical expressions are proposed to describe the proportionality relationships found, which can be very useful to support adequate separation distances in the design and construction of parallel corridors of pipelines after appropriate escalating effects are considered. Finally, detailed event trees were developed to calculate the probability of occurrence of the final outcomes, as well as the identified domino sequences, based on a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the data. The study of these accident scenarios, based on actual cases, represents a useful and needed advance in risk analysis of natural gas transportation through pipelines.     

北京市典型废弃物焚烧源2010—2017年二NFDA1英排放特征和减排效果分析

分析2010—2017年北京市三类典型废弃物焚烧源的废气二NFDA1英排放监测数据,计算排放因子和排放量,评估减排政策成效,并分析不同排放源达标排放时同类物分布特征异同和变化规律,探讨影响排放的重要因素。结果表明: 5家焚烧源平均排放浓度为 0.008～0.069 ng/m³(以TEQ计,下同),废气二NFDA1英排放因子为 0.027～1.7 μg/t,2016年向空气中排放的二NFDA1英量为 0.002 5～0.058 g；生活垃圾、危险废物和医疗废物焚烧源的低、高氯代同类物质量分数比的平均值分别为接近于 0.5、大于0.5和小于0.5,危险废物焚烧源的 ∑PCDFs、∑PCDDs质量分数比的平均值大于2； 123478-HxCDF和123678-HxCDF质量浓度接近且线性相关,具有相近的生成机理和去除效率； I-TEQ变化趋势与∑PCDFs质量分数的变化趋势基本一致,活性炭喷射和布袋除尘的去除效率是影响二NFDA1英排放的重要因素之一；危险废物焚烧源HWI1随运行时间增加排放浓度增加,而及时更换烟道管壁有助于消除“记忆效应”的不良影响。     

北京首都机场绿色滑行时间估算

采用北京首都机场2014年实际CDM地面放行数据确定航空器的污染物排放量与离场排队飞机数量和落地滑入飞机数量的强关联性,构建包含这两个解释变量为影响因素的多元线性回归模型,用以估算几种常见机型在首都机场地面运行时的最小污染物排放量和绿色滑行时间。对比实际污染物排放量与最小污染物排放量,得出首都机场离场地面污染物排放量远远超过最小污染物排放量。     

A new prediction method of industrial atmospheric pollutant emission intensity based on pollutant emission standard quantification

● Established a quantification method of pollutant emission standard. ● Predicted the SO₂ emission intensity of single coking enterprises in China. ● Evaluated the influence of pollutant discharge standard on prediction accuracy. ● Analyzed the SO₂ emissions of Chinese provincial and municipal coking enterprises. Industrial emissions are the main source of atmospheric pollutants in China. Accurate and reasonable prediction of the emission of atmospheric pollutants from single enterprise can determine the exact source of atmospheric pollutants and control atmospheric pollution precisely. Based on China’s coking enterprises in 2020, we proposed a quantitative method for pollutant emission standards and introduced the quantification results of pollutant emission standards (QRPES) into the construction of support vector regression (SVR) and random forest regression (RFR) prediction methods for SO₂ emission of coking enterprises in China. The results show that, affected by the types of coke ovens and regions, China’s current coking enterprises have implemented a total of 21 emission standards, with marked differences. After adding QRPES, it was found that the root mean squared error (RMSE) of SVR and RFR decreased from 0.055 kt/a and 0.059 kt/a to 0.045 kt/a and 0.039 kt/a, and theR² increased from 0.890 and 0.881 to 0.926 and 0.945, respectively. This shows that the QRPES can greatly improve the prediction accuracy, and the SO₂ emissions of each enterprise are highly correlated with the strictness of standards. The predicted result shows that 45% of SO₂ emissions from Chinese coking enterprises are concentrated in Shanxi, Shaanxi and Hebei provinces in central China. The method created in this paper fills in the blank of forecasting method of air pollutant emission intensity of single enterprise and is of great help to the accurate control of air pollutants.     

基于TVR的腐蚀油气管道失效概率及安全寿命研究

为避免因腐蚀导致油气管道失效，针对因管道特性和腐蚀尺寸的不确定性使得管道剩余强度成为概率模型的特点，建立了腐蚀管道强度损失随机模型；借助可靠性理论，通过分析管道腐蚀进程的时变性特点，将管道系统由损伤积累和抗力衰减导致的剩余强度随机化；提出基于穿越率的腐蚀油气管道失效评定及安全寿命预测方法。研究结果表明:腐蚀速率和运行压力对管道失效概率及安全寿命影响显著,管道尺寸影响适中，而相关系数和拉伸强度影响较小；若腐蚀速率Va=0.2 mm/a，VL=10 mm/a或局部腐蚀缺陷半径达到管道壁厚的0.5倍时，建议作为重点风险段监测并检修。所建方法是对腐蚀油气管道运营监控和风险评估的有益补充。     

钻孔间距对水力压裂促抽煤层瓦斯的影响

针对定量确定合理钻孔间距困难问题，基于损伤力学和多场耦合理论，建立了水力压裂和瓦斯抽采的煤层流固耦合模型，包括和水运移场、应力场以及孔隙度、渗透率演化方程，并采用Comsol联合Matlab求解，研究了不同钻孔间距时压裂和抽采过程中煤层弹模、损伤值、渗透率、瓦斯压力、抽采量和压裂贯通时间的变化规律。结果表明:耦合模型可较准确地模拟煤层水力压裂和瓦斯抽采过程；压裂贯通时间与钻孔间距呈指数增长关系；在马堡煤矿，当钻孔间距为4~8 m时，压裂损伤区在抽采孔贯通，渗透率呈“n”型曲线，瓦斯抽采后，瓦斯压力迅速下降，抽采有效区随间距的增加而增大；当钻孔间距为9~12 m时，压裂损伤区未贯通，煤层渗透率呈“m”型曲线，抽采有效区随间距的增加而减小，与间距4~8 m相比，瓦斯抽采量较小。     

臭氧氧化—湿式钙法吸收工艺对烟气的同时脱硫脱硝

采用臭氧氧化—湿式钙法吸收工艺对模拟烟气进行同时脱硫脱硝处理。O₃于150 ℃下具有较高的热稳定性,可将NO氧化为高价态氮氧化物,且NO氧化率随n（O₃）∶n（NO）的增大而逐渐提高。烟气中SO₂和H₂O的存在对NO氧化率的影响不大。O₃对SO₂的氧化率较低,约为5%。3%（w）石灰石浆液对SO₂的吸收率接近100%,NO_x吸收率随n（O₃）∶n（NO）的增大而逐渐提高,当n（O₃）∶n（NO）为1.6时NO_x吸收率可达约65%。SO₂能促进吸收液对NO_x的脱除。石灰石浆液中加入0.2%（w）的（NH₄）₂SO₃或Na₂SO₃后NO_x吸收率可达约85%或82%,且吸收率随添加剂加入量的增加而提高,添加（NH₄）₂SO₃的NO_x吸收率略高于添加Na₂SO₃。     

基于FDS的加油站便利店火灾模拟

为了研究加油站便利店火灾的发展规律，选择合理的疏散路线，使用 FDS软件对某加油站便利店进行火灾数值模拟。通过观察烟气扩散和动态升温过程，分析便利店的烟气扩散和升温规律，对比分析不同疏散路线上温度、烟气层高度和能见度的数据变化规律，分析选择不同疏散路线对人员安全疏散的影响。结果表明:在无火灾报警设备的情况下，卫生间等有隔断的设施会延迟设施内人员获得火灾信息的时间,不利于安全疏散；同等高度下靠墙区域受高温烟气影响较中央开阔区域更大；疏散时选择合理的疏散路线可以显著延长安全疏散时间。     

Effects of EGR on performance and emissions of a diesel engine fuelled with balanites aegyptiaca/diesel blends

In this study, balanites Aegyptiaca (L.) Del biodiesel was blended in proportions of 10% and 20% on the volume basis with diesel fuel and tested in a single cylinder, VCR diesel engine under measured load conditions with varied EGR rates (0, 10 and 20%). The results showed that B10 and B20 blends shown a significant reduction rate in terms of NO_x emissions that were familiar with biodiesel blends. At peak load conditions, BTE increased slightly for test fuel blends compared with pure diesel fuel while the BSFC rate and EGT suffered from increasing and decreasing nature with respect to blending percentage. From the emissions point of view, with the increase in blends percentage, a significant reduction rate is observed in terms of CO and HC concentrations (up to 12.34 and 17.5%, respectively) while NOx emissions decreased at peak load conditions (up to 24.34%). HC and CO emissions decreased with increase in blends percentage. However, lower levels of NO_x and EGT (up to 21.37 and 8.47%, respectively) and the average increase in terms of BTE and BSFC (up to 2.83 and 2.9%, respectively) can be realised with B20 test fuel blend under 20% EGR rate.