火灾发生率空间分异及影响因素研究

为了探究我国火灾空间聚集特征与影响因素的空间异质性，采用全局莫兰指数、局部莫兰指数、逐步回归模型、地理加权回归模型、地理探测器方法对我国地级市单元进行研究。研究结果表明:我国火灾发生率具有显著的聚集性；我国火灾发生率较低的“冷点”区域有1个，火灾发生率较高的“热点”区域有4个；人均GDP、城镇居民人均可支配收入、人口密度、年平均气温4 个因素的影响效应具有空间异质性。人均GDP与火灾发生率为正相关，另外3影响因素对火灾发生率的作用表现出正负2种相关关系；2因素交互作用要比单因素作用于火灾发生率时影响力更显著，各影响因素的交互作用类型有非线性增强型和双因子增强型2种。     

Investigating factors affecting severity of large truck-involved crashes: Comparison of the SVM and random parameter logit model

Introduction: Reducing the severity of crashes is a top priority for safety researchers due to its impact on saving human lives. Because of safety concerns posed by large trucks and the high rate of fatal large truck-involved crashes, an exploration into large truck-involved crashes could help determine factors that are influential in crash severity. The current study focuses on large truck-involved crashes to predict influencing factors on crash injury severity. Method: Two techniques have been utilized: Random Parameter Binary Logit (RPBL) and Support Vector Machine (SVM). Models have been developed to estimate: (1) multivehicle (MV) truck-involved crashes, in which large truck drivers are at fault, (2) MV track-involved crashes, in which large truck drivers are not at fault and (3) and single-vehicle (SV) large truck crashes. Results: Fatigue and deviation to the left were found as the most important contributing factors that lead to fatal crashes when the large truck-driver is at fault. Outcomes show that there are differences among significant factors between RPBL and SVM. For instance, unsafe lane-changing was significant in all three categories in RPBL, but only SV large truck crashes in SVM. Conclusions: The outcomes showed the importance of the complementary approaches to incorporate both parametric RPBL and non-parametric SVM to identify the main contributing factors affecting the severity of large truck-involved crashes. Also, the results highlighted the importance of categorization based on the at-fault party. Practical Applications: Unrealistic schedules and expectations of trucking companies can cause excessive stress for the large truck drivers, which could leads to further neglect of their fatigue. Enacting and enforcing comprehensive regulations regarding large truck drivers’ working schedules and direct and constant surveillance by authorities would significantly decrease large truck-involved crashes.     

土地资源空间异质性与经济发展水平的关系研究——以武汉城市圈为例

从土地资源属性出发,采用主成分分析法综合测度武汉城市圈土地资源空间异质性,利用Tobit模型对土地资源空间异质性与经济发展水平的关系进行分析。研究表明:城市圈土地资源空间异质性是土地质量、结构、数量和禀赋等特征异质的综合反映,其中土地质量和结构异质是主因;城市圈土地资源空间异质性指数区间为[0.015,0.737],可分为高异质区、中高异质区、一般异质区、中低异质区、低异质区5个梯度区;城市圈土地资源空间异质性呈现出"中心高、边缘低"的分布特征,各异质梯度区内研究单元数量和面积差异明显;城市化水平和人均GDP对土地资源空间异质性具有显著的正向影响,第三产业比重具有显著的负向影响,提高第三产业比重能够降低城市圈土地资源异质性。     

平原丘陵过渡带土壤有机碳空间分布及环境影响

为定量分析景观过渡带中土壤有机碳空间分布及环境影响,将环境因子纳入空间自回归模型与地理加权回归模型分析比较,并以普通最小二乘回归模型作对照.结果表明:土壤性质指标中,容重及有效铁与土壤有机碳存在极显著相关关系;地形及区位因子中,纬度、高程、坡度、粗糙度等稳定性因素与土壤有机碳存在极显著相关关系;土壤有机碳的局部集聚性多发生在核心景观过渡带;空间回归模型的拟合优度均优于普通最小二乘回归模型,估计值的空间自相关变化趋势与实测值一致,残差的空间模式显著减弱;能够灵活调整权函数与带宽的地理加权回归模型能够更好地分析土壤有机碳的空间变异模型评价方面,GWR-1和GWR-2的残差平方和较OLS分别降低了20.717%和8.799%;SLM、SEM、GWR-1、GWR-2的AIC值较OLS分别减小了5.108、5.391、19.887和11.751.除本身存在的空间自相关外,模型中土壤性质指标及环境因子能大幅解释土壤有机碳的异质性本研究引入辅助变量,运用空间回归模型分析了平原丘陵过渡带土壤有机碳的空间变异,可为生态恢复、环境变化指示及研究区典型柑橘区的区划提供依据.     

Technological innovation paths toward green industry in China

With the environmental carrying capacity reaching its limits and the decreasing margin benefits of traditional production factors, the green transformation and green development through technological innovations has been a major direction for the future development of Chinese industries. However, the characteristics and heterogeneities of various types of industries call for different approaches regarding technological innovations. How to choose the most effective mode of technological innovation according to the characteristics of a certain industry has been a key issue. This paper measures the green total factor productivity of 32 industrial trades using the Slacks Based Measure(SBM)-DDF method. The effects of three innovation modes in the green transformation of industrial industry, including the independent innovation(Ⅱ), the technology introduction(TI), and the government support(GS), are empirically analyzed based on industry heterogeneity. Results indicate that the green total factor productivities of different industries show significant differences if taking into account the energy input and the undesirable output of pollutant emissions. The green total factor productivities of traditional high input,high pollution, and high energy consumption industrial trades were significantly lower than those with obvious green features. The year of 2009 is a leap year for the industrial green transformation in China. For resource-intensive industries, the II and the GS are the important ways to achieve green transformation. For labor-intensive industries, the TI is the best path to achieve green transformation, while for technology-intensive industries, the II is the primary driving force for the promotion of green developments. In addition, the innovation-compensating effect of the current Chinese environmental regulations to the resource-intensive industries has been revealed. Improving the overall scale and the industrial concentration of the industries is also beneficial for the green transformation of the industries.     

巢湖水体组分垂向分布特征及其对水下光场的影响

富营养化湖泊不同组分垂向分布及其对水下光场的影响是湖泊水环境遥感领域亟待开展的内容.利用巢湖野外实测数据,分析水体不同组分垂向分布特征,结合Hydrolight辐射传输模型模拟研究水体不同组分垂向分布对漫衰减系数Kd的影响.结果表明,巢湖水体悬浮物以及有色可溶性有机物CDOM垂向分布较为均一,水面未发生藻华现象时叶绿素a垂向分布符合高斯正态分布,漫衰减系数Kd受叶绿素a以及无机悬浮物的显著影响,其垂向变化复杂多样,以往以水体光学性质均一为前提计算得到的Kd仅仅表示其衰减的平均情况,不能精确反映水下光场的垂向变化,因此研究水体组分垂向分布特征及其对漫衰减系数Kd的影响是开展藻类垂向分布异质性对水下光场影响机制研究的前提和基础.     

Continuous versus binary representations of landscape heterogeneity in spatially-explicit models of mobile populations

How a landscape is represented is an important structural assumption in spatially-explicit simulation models. Simple models tend to specify just habitat and non-habitat (binary), while more complex models may use multiple levels or a continuum of habitat quality (continuous). How these different representations influence model projections is unclear. To assess the influence of landscape representation on population models, I developed a general, individual-based model with local dispersal and examined population persistence across binary and continuous landscapes varying in the amount and fragmentation of habitat. In binary and continuous landscapes habitat and non-habitat were assigned a unique mean suitability. In continuous landscapes, suitability of each individual site was then drawn from a normal distribution with fixed variance. Populations went extinct less often and abundances were higher in continuous landscapes. Production in habitat and non-habitat was higher in continuous landscapes, because the range of habitat suitability sampled by randomly dispersing individuals was higher than the overall mean habitat suitability. Increasing mortality, dispersal distance, and spatial heterogeneity all increased the discrepancy between continuous and binary landscapes. The effect of spatial structure on the probability of extinction was greater in binary landscapes. These results show that, under certain circumstances, model projections are influenced by how variation in suitability within a landscape is represented. Care should be taken to assess how a given species actually perceives the landscape when conducting population viability analyses or empirical validation of theory.     

Understanding the Lessons and Limitations of Conservation and Development

Abstract: The lack of concrete instances in which conservation and development have been successfully merged has strengthened arguments for strict exclusionist conservation policies. Research has focused more on social cooperation and conflict of different management regimes and less on how these factors actually affect the natural environments they seek to conserve. Consequently, it is still unknown which strategies yield better conservation outcomes? We conducted a meta‐analysis of 116 published case studies on common resource management regimes from Africa, south and central America, and southern and Southeast Asia. Using ranked sociodemographic, political, and ecological data, we analyzed the effect of land tenure, population size, social heterogeneity, as well as internally devised resource‐management rules and regulations (institutions) on conservation outcome. Although land tenure, population size, and social heterogeneity did not significantly affect conservation outcome, institutions were positively associated with better conservation outcomes. There was also a significant interaction effect between population size and institutions, which implies complex relationships between population size and conservation outcome. Our results suggest that communities managing a common resource can play a significant role in conservation and that institutions lead to management regimes with lower environmental impacts.     

晋西黄土区林草复合界面雨后土壤水分空间变异规律研究

利用统计学方法对晋西黄土区林草复合系统界面上雨后表层（0～10 cm）、亚表层（10～20 cm）和20～40 cm土层土壤水分空间变异性进行研究。结果表明：草地、林地以及二者组成的林草界面的土壤水分含量、变异系数差别均不大,土壤水分含量随着深度的增加而减少,但土壤水分变异系数则相反;移动窗口法分析表明,林草界面对表层和亚表层的土壤水分影响范围均为4.0 m;草地土壤质量含水量的变异函数模型可以拟合成高斯模型,林地和林草界面则可以拟合球状模型,草地土壤水分总体空间异质性要大于林地和林草界面,草地土壤水分变异函数的平均变程为10.96 m,林草界面及林地土壤水分的平均变程分别为5.37 m和4.31 m。对于描述界面土壤水分分布情况,克立格制图直观性强,具有良好效果。     

森林生态系统土壤呼吸时空异质性及影响因子研究进展

土壤呼吸是全球碳循环的一个重要流通途径，是大气CO2的重要来源之一，是陆地碳循环的重要环节，对温室气体的排放产生直接影响，且关系到科学把握全球变化背景下CO2的排放动态，在全球碳收支中占据重要地位，越来越受到各国学者的广泛关注。在全球变化背景下研究土壤呼吸的时空异质性及其影响因子，可为探索陆地生态系统在碳循环方面的碳源/碳汇功能和揭示“碳失汇之迷”，以及减缓气候变暖等方面提供有力的依据。作为一个复杂的生物学与生态学过程，土壤呼吸受到气候、生物以及非生物等因子的影响而呈现时空异质性，并随着各种干扰因子影响的增强，人为因素的作用亦越来越大，该文阐述了森林生态系统土壤呼吸作用的时空动态变化规律、并探讨了影响土壤呼吸速率的各种影响因子，剖析了导致土壤呼吸时空异质性的影响因子，指出自然因子、生物因子和干扰因子共同驱动着土壤呼吸的时空动态变化。并对森林生态系统土壤呼吸作用的模型模拟方面的研究进展进行了综述。最后讨论了森林土壤呼吸时空异质性研究中存在的相关问题，同时提出了今后土壤呼吸研究中应关注的问题，同时对森林生态系统土壤呼吸时空异质性及影响因子的研究方向进行了展望。