基于改进的非线性GM(1,1)模型的职业病预测研究

为了更准确地预测职业病，在传统GM(1,1)模型的基础上，提出改进的非线性GM(1,1)模型，在传统的GM(1,1)模型中引入弱化算子，将紧邻均值与原始数据之间的线性假设改为非线性假设，提高曲线的拟合度。以2005—2014年的全国职业病例数为研究对象，进行数据拟合和预测分析，其中以2014年职业病例数作为验证数据，并利用后验差比值和小误差概率2个参数，检验该改进模型的预测精度。由应用实例的分析结果可知:在职业病发病趋势的预测方面，改进的非线性GM(1,1)模型的预测精度提高到一级，曲线拟合度较高，预测得到2015年的职业病例数为34 900例。     

Assessing effects of non-native crayfish on mosquito survival

Introductions of non-native predators often reduce biodiversity and affect natural predator–prey relationships and may increase the abundance of potential disease vectors (e.g., mosquitoes) indirectly through competition or predation cascades. The Santa Monica Mountains (California, U.S.A.), situated in a global biodiversity hotspot, is an area of conservation concern due to climate change, urbanization, and the introduction of non-native species. We examined the effect of non-native crayfish (Procambarus clarkii) on an existing native predator, dragonfly nymphs (Aeshna sp.), and their mosquito larvae (Anopheles sp.) prey. We used laboratory experiments to compare the predation efficiency of both predators, separately and together, and field data on counts of dragonfly nymphs and mosquito larvae sampled from 13 local streams. We predicted a lower predation efficiency of crayfish compared with native dragonfly nymphs and a reduced predation efficiency of dragonfly nymphs in the presence of crayfish. Dragonfly nymphs were an order of magnitude more efficient predators than crayfish, and dragonfly nymph predation efficiency was reduced in the presence of crayfish. Field count data showed that populations of dragonfly nymphs and mosquito larvae were strongly correlated with crayfish presence in streams, such that sites with crayfish tended to have fewer dragonfly nymphs and more mosquito larvae. Under natural conditions, it is likely that crayfish reduce the abundance of dragonfly nymphs and their predation efficiency and thereby, directly and indirectly, lead to higher mosquito populations and a loss of ecosystem services related to disease vector control.     

石油化工催化剂生产过程中的职业病防治及应急处理

石化企业使用了大量的催化剂,催化剂开发、生产过程复杂,有许多原料和生产工艺,存在许多潜在的安全隐患和职业病危害因素。为预防催化剂生产过程中的事故,通过分析催化剂生产过程中的职业病危害分析,提出了相应的职业病防范及应急处置措施,加强催化剂生产过程中的职业病防治和应急处置能力,创造良好的经济、生态和社会效益,有效防止催化剂生产过程中发生安全事故和职业病。     

Distribution of heavy metals in sediments of the Pearl River Estuary, Southern China: Implications for sources and historical changes

The distribution of heavy metals (Pb, Zn, Cd and As) in sediments of the Pearl River Estuary was investigated. The spatial distribution of heavy metals displayed a decreasing pattern from the turbidity maxima to both upstream and downstream of the estuary, which suggested that suspended sediments played an important role in the trace metal distribution in the Pearl River Estuary. In addition, metal concentrations were higher in the west part of the estuary which received most of the pollutants from the Pearl River. In the sediment cores, fluxes of heavy metals were consistent with a predominant anthropogenic input in the period 1970-1990. From the mid-1990s to the 2000s, there was a significant decline in heavy metal pollution. The observed decline has shown the result of pollution control in the Pearl River Delta. However, it is noteworthy that the metal concentrations in the most recent sediment still remained considerably high. Taken together, the enrichment of heavy metals in sediments was largely controlled by anthropogenic pollution.     

灾变性事件引起的消费品产业链价格波及效应研究

为了研究地震等灾变性事件对于消费品产业链内价格传递和市场的影响,本文利用从2008年2月至2009年3月四川省江油市畜产业链进行实证研究,使用向量纠错模型（VECM）和历史分解图（HDG）分析了价格调整的动态效果和沿产业链的因果关系。结果表明,价格的调整关于速度和大小都是不对称的,外生震荡对于该产业链的不同层面产生不同影响,导致价格差益的扩大和价格不完全传递。该方法能够有效地分析灾变事件条件下消费品产业链内价格波及效应问题。     

The problem of estimating recent genetic connectivity in a changing world

Accurate understanding of population connectivity is important to conservation because dispersal can play an important role in population dynamics, microevolution, and assessments of extirpation risk and population rescue. Genetic methods are increasingly used to infer population connectivity because advances in technology have made them more advantageous (e.g., cost effective) relative to ecological methods. Given the reductions in wildlife population connectivity since the Industrial Revolution and more recent drastic reductions from habitat loss, it is important to know the accuracy of and biases in genetic connectivity estimators when connectivity has declined recently. Using simulated data, we investigated the accuracy and bias of 2 common estimators of migration (movement of individuals among populations) rate. We focused on the timing of the connectivity change and the magnitude of that change on the estimates of migration by using a coalescent‐based method (Migrate‐n) and a disequilibrium‐based method (BayesAss). Contrary to expectations, when historically high connectivity had declined recently: (i) both methods over‐estimated recent migration rates; (ii) the coalescent‐based method (Migrate‐n) provided better estimates of recent migration rate than the disequilibrium‐based method (BayesAss); (iii) the coalescent‐based method did not accurately reflect long‐term genetic connectivity. Overall, our results highlight the problems with comparing coalescent and disequilibrium estimates to make inferences about the effects of recent landscape change on genetic connectivity among populations. We found that contrasting these 2 estimates to make inferences about genetic‐connectivity changes over time could lead to inaccurate conclusions.     

Conservation implications of physiological carry‐over effects in bats recovering from white‐nose syndrome

Although it is well documented that infectious diseases can pose threats to biodiversity, the potential long‐term consequences of pathogen exposure on individual fitness and its effects on population viability have rarely been studied. We tested the hypothesis that pathogen exposure causes physiological carry‐over effects with a pathogen that is uniquely suited to this question because the infection period is specific and time limited. The fungus Pseudogymnoascus destructans causes white‐nose syndrome (WNS) in hibernating bats, which either die due to the infection while hibernating or recover following emergence from hibernation. The fungus infects all exposed individuals in an overwintering site simultaneously, and bats that survive infection during hibernation clear the pathogen within a few weeks following emergence. We quantified chronic stress during the active season, when bats are not infected, by measuring cortisol in bat claws. Free‐ranging Myotis lucifugus who survived previous exposure to P. destructans had significantly higher levels of claw cortisol than naïve individuals. Thus, cryptic physiological carry‐over effects of pathogen exposure may persist in asymptomatic, recovered individuals. If these effects result in reduced survival or reproductive success, they could also affect population viability and even act as a third stream in the extinction vortex. For example, significant increases in chronic stress, such as those indicated here, are correlated with reduced reproductive success in a number of species. Future research should directly explore the link between pathogen exposure and the viability of apparently recovered populations to improve understanding of the true impacts of infectious diseases on threatened populations.     

IKK inhibition prevents PM2.5-exacerbated cardiac injury in mice with type 2 diabetes

Epidemiological studies have found that individuals with diabetes mellitus(DM) display an increased susceptibility for adverse cardiovascular outcomes when exposed to air pollution.This study was conducted to explore the potential mechanism linking ambient fine particles(PM2.5) and heart injury in a Type 2 DM(T2DM) animal model. The KKay mouse, an animal model of T2DM, was exposed to concentrated ambient PM2.5 or filtered air for 8 weeks via a versatile aerosol exposure and concentrator system. Simultaneously, an inhibitor of IκB kinase-2(IKK-a)(IMD-0354), which is a blocker of nuclear factor κB(NF-κB)nuclear translocation, was administrated by intracerebroventricular injection(ICV) to regulate the NF-êB pathway. The results showed that ambient PM2.5 induced the increase of, NF-êB, cyclooxygenase-2(COX-2) and mitogen activated protein kinase(MAPK) expression in cardiac tissue, and that IMD-0354 could alleviate the inflammatory injury. The results suggested that the NF-êB pathway plays an important role in mediating the PM2.5-induced cardiovascular injury in the T2DM model. Inhibiting NFκB may be a therapeutic option in air-pollution-exacerbated cardiovascular injury in diabetes mellitus.     

石林风景名胜区对乡村经济发展的影响

石林风景名胜区始建于20世纪30年代,旅游开发经历了居民游览、服务中心城市的接待观光型到区域支柱产业的转型。经济体制深刻地影响了石林旅游业,旅游产品延续了计划经济体制下形成接待观光游览型,形成以门票收入为主体的旅游经济收入格局,对不同层次的经济发展带来不同的影响。石林旅游业对县级经济收入、产业结构、财政、税收有积极影响,近5年石林旅游业占当地GDP的9%～11%,占第三产业产值的27.9% ～33%、财政收入的10.8%～0.1%,但对农业生产、农村居民就业和家庭收入的带动力弱,有明显的“距离衰减效应”。获得旅游效益的居民限于风景区旅游中心的村寨,约占风景区人口的15%,中心旅游区的第三产业就业人员比例比其它地区高7%～35%。中心区农民参与旅游业方式的调查表明,居民参与旅游业的方式被动：耕地被征用后,或被风景名胜区管理部门雇佣、或成个体工商户、或被外来企业雇佣,就业领域局限于餐饮服务、环卫和绿化、民族工艺品制作与销售、照相、旅游交通、导游等。风景区农村的基础建设、产业结构、就业领域与风景区功能和旅游业目标的协调存在距离。促进风景名胜区旅游业对所在地的“三农”发展的协调值得思考和解决。     

Novel Organisms: Comparing Invasive Species, GMOs, and Emerging Pathogens

Invasive species, range-expanding species, genetically modified organisms (GMOs), synthetic organisms, and emerging pathogens increasingly affect the human environment. We propose a framework that allows comparison of consecutive stages that such novel organisms go through. The framework provides a common terminology for novel organisms, facilitating knowledge exchange among researchers, managers, and policy makers that work on, or have to make effective decisions about, novel organisms. The framework also indicates that knowledge about the causes and consequences of stage transitions for the better studied novel organisms, such as invasive species, can be transferred to more poorly studied ones, such as GMOs and emerging pathogens. Finally, the framework advances understanding of how climate change can affect the establishment, spread, and impacts of novel organisms, and how biodiversity affects, and is affected by, novel organisms.