A multidecadal oscillation in precipitation and temperature series is pronounced in low flow series from Puget Sound streams

In Pacific Northwest streams, summer low flows limit water available to competing instream (salmon) and out-of-stream (human) uses, creating broad interest in how and why low flows are trending. Analyses that assumed linear (monotonic) change over the last ~60 years revealed declining low flow trends in minimally disturbed streams. Here, polynomials were used to model flow trends between 1929 and 2015. A multidecadal oscillation was observed in flows, which increased initially from the 1930s until the 1950s, declined until the 1990s, and then increased again. A similar oscillation was detected in precipitation series, and opposing oscillations in surface temperature, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation series. Multidecadal oscillations with similar periods to those described here are well known in climate indices. Fitted model terms were consistent with flow trends being influenced by at least two drivers, one oscillating and the other monotonic. Anthropogenic warming is a candidate driver for the monotonic decline, and variation in (internal) climatic circulation for the oscillating trend, but others were not ruled out. The recent upturn in streamflows suggests that anthropogenic warming has not been the dominant factor driving streamflow trends, at least until 2015. Climate projections based on simulations that omit drivers of multidecadal variation are likely to underestimate the range, and rate of change, of future climatic variation.     

Uncertainties in QRA: Analysis of losses of containment from piping and implications on risk prevention and mitigation

Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) is commonly used in the chemical industry to support decision-making. Common practices are based on standard methods, such as fault tree, event tree, etc.; in this frame, risk is a function of frequency of events (probability) and associated consequences (negative outcomes), but relevant uncertainties often are not properly taken into account in the derived results. This paper presents the application of an extended risk analysis of loss of containments for a case-study with the following aims: firstly, the uncertainties related to the results of the analysis, which derive from assumption in the application of the standard models, are qualitatively assessed; secondly the application allows evaluating the impact of the uncertainties on the trustworthiness of the results and, finally, commenting about their use in the risk prevention and mitigation.     

Confidence-based quantitative risk analysis for offshore accidental hydrocarbon release events

Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) has been widely used to conduct the assessment of offshore accidental risks. However, the accuracy and validity of QRA is significantly affected by uncertainties when subjective judgments are involved. Therefore, it is unrealistic to determine the probability of a hazardous event by using one single explicit value when safety experts have a relatively low confidence level in their judgments. This paper proposes a new methodology for incorporating uncertainties into conventional QRA using the concept of confidence level. Offshore hydrocarbon release hazards are focused on and a barrier and operational risk analysis (BORA-Release) method is selected as the basic model to illustrate the proposed methodology. A left–right (L–R) bell-shaped fuzzy number is employed and its membership curve is able to control its shape to represent different confidence levels. As to the complex geometry of the bell-shaped fuzzy number, an α-cut operation is introduced to conduct the arithmetic operations of the fuzzy number, and a defuzzification method with total integral value is chosen to match the α-cut operations and acquire complete information for the fuzzy numbers. In the meantime, an optimism index is used to describe the attitude of the decision-maker. One case study is provided in this paper to demonstrate the implementation of this method.     

Morphological characteristics of flashing jet throughout superheated liquid release

Many release problems involve two-phase releases of hazardous materials of superheated liquids with high energy into the atmosphere. Such accidents are accompanied by violent phase transition and form catastrophic flashing jets. In this work, experimental and theoretical analyses were conducted to investigate dynamic characteristics of flashing jet morphology and their dependence on pressure-decay dynamics under different storage pressures, superheats, and nozzle diameters. Flashing jet morphology and angle throughout two-phase releases were captured by a high-speed camera, and the corresponding source pressure in the superheated liquid tank was measured simultaneously. Results show that three typical phases, expansion, stabilization, and decay, are characterized throughout two-phase release based on the evolution of flashing jet morphology. The jet initially expands gradually due to the enhancement of phase transition intensity, and then keeps stable when the intensity reaches its maximum, and terminally decays rapidly due to the depletion of superheated liquid. Phase transition intensity at the nozzle exit is mainly controlled by the pressure-decay dynamics. Bubbles nucleation inception sites gradually move upstream of the nozzle during the pressure decay process increasing the phase transition intensity. The increase of storage pressure, superheat and nozzle diameter promotes the mechanical and thermodynamic effects on the jet breakup. The significant increase of mechanical and thermodynamic effects effectively accelerates droplets evaporation and further affects flashing jet morphology.     

一体化管理体系与HSE管理

介绍了一体化管理体系的特点和框架,阐明了建立一体化管理体系对HSE管理的作用,指出了实施一体化管理体系的注意事项。     

内部营销理论与HSE推广

介绍了内部营销理论的发展历程,分析了内部营销理论在指导HSE推广工作中的可行性与必要性。     

磁湖底泥氮释放通量的研究

本研究通过对磁湖底泥氮释放的特性进行实验室静态模拟实验,测定不同温度对磁湖底泥中氮释放量的影响。结果表明,温度升高时,底泥中NH3-N、TN释放通量增大,NO2-N和NO3-N释放通量减小。磁湖底泥的TN释放通量为-120到-25 mg/m3.d,NH3-N、NO2-N和NO3-N和TN释放通量基本呈负释放,说明磁湖大部分氮元素沉积到底泥中。本研究为探讨磁湖水质的改善提供相关的依据,并为以后关于磁湖的治理研究提供一定参考。     

水位变化对湖泊沉积物营养释放的影响

水位波动可有效调节湖泊生态系统的结构与功能,干湿交替过程引起的沉积物生物地球化学循环途径的改变是其重要机制之一。大量研究结果表明,干湿交替将加速沉积物有机碳的分解,强化沉积物硝化与硝化作用的偶联,促进沉积物磷的酶促水解和厌氧解离,从而增加再度淹没之后水中溶解有机碳和生物可利用性磷的浓度,并减少溶解无机态氮的浓度。有机质的分解是上述过程的关键步骤。因此,必须系统描述湖泊水陆界面土壤和沉积物基本理化性状与水生生物特征,分析干旱过程中沉积物生物地球化学循环途径的变化,了解淹没过程中水柱营养状态与浮游生物群落对沉积物营养释放的响应,从而揭示水位波动调控富营养化过程的机制,即诱发营养脉冲或维系其持续补给,改变营养阈值,进而导致稳态转换。     

海水淡化水在既有管网输配的铁释放控制研究

由于具有强腐蚀性,海水淡化水在既有市政管网输配过程中往往会产生严重的"红水"现象,主要是由于管网中铁的释放.为了研究控制既有管网中铁释放的有效措施,对管龄为30～40 a的钢管和灰口铸铁管内壁的腐蚀瘤进行分析,主要组成物质为Fe3O4和FeOOH;选择腐蚀较严重的钢管进行静态浸泡试验,重点分析了自来水和淡化水的掺混比、pH值、碱度、氯离子和硫酸根离子对铁释放的影响,并以铁浓度为控制量,初步给出了海水淡化水在既有管网中安全输配所需满足的水质条件:自来水和淡化水的掺混比≥2∶1,pH值在7.6以上,碱度>200 mg.L-1.     

动态水流条件下河流底泥污染物(COD_(Cr))释放研究

为了研究不同水深、流速等水动力条件对底泥中污染物释放强度的影响,以苏州河底泥为例,通过水槽试验,分析了动态水流条件下河流底泥中污染物释放及其对上覆水体水质的影响.结果表明,CODCr释放率随时间的增大而增大,但CODCr释放强度随时间的增大而减小.底泥中污染物释放率与水深和流速有关,在相同水深的条件下,底泥的释放率随着流速的增加而增大;在相同流速的条件下,底泥的释放率随着水深的增大而减小.在水深10cm、流速0.10m.s-1的动态水流条件下,底泥向上覆水体释放CODCr的释放强度与时间的关系为:C=1.06C0e-0.06t.