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1.
Deep learning (DL) models are increasingly used to make accurate hindcasts of management-relevant variables, but they are less commonly used in forecasting applications. Data assimilation (DA) can be used for forecasts to leverage real-time observations, where the difference between model predictions and observations today is used to adjust the model to make better predictions tomorrow. In this use case, we developed a process-guided DL and DA approach to make 7-day probabilistic forecasts of daily maximum water temperature in the Delaware River Basin in support of water management decisions. Our modeling system produced forecasts of daily maximum water temperature with an average root mean squared error (RMSE) from 1.1 to 1.4°C for 1-day-ahead and 1.4 to 1.9°C for 7-day-ahead forecasts across all sites. The DA algorithm marginally improved forecast performance when compared with forecasts produced using the process-guided DL model alone (0%–14% lower RMSE with the DA algorithm). Across all sites and lead times, 65%–82% of observations were within 90% forecast confidence intervals, which allowed managers to anticipate probability of exceedances of ecologically relevant thresholds and aid in decisions about releasing reservoir water downstream. The flexibility of DL models shows promise for forecasting other important environmental variables and aid in decision-making.  相似文献   
2.
In Pacific Northwest streams, summer low flows limit water available to competing instream (salmon) and out-of-stream (human) uses, creating broad interest in how and why low flows are trending. Analyses that assumed linear (monotonic) change over the last ~60 years revealed declining low flow trends in minimally disturbed streams. Here, polynomials were used to model flow trends between 1929 and 2015. A multidecadal oscillation was observed in flows, which increased initially from the 1930s until the 1950s, declined until the 1990s, and then increased again. A similar oscillation was detected in precipitation series, and opposing oscillations in surface temperature, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation series. Multidecadal oscillations with similar periods to those described here are well known in climate indices. Fitted model terms were consistent with flow trends being influenced by at least two drivers, one oscillating and the other monotonic. Anthropogenic warming is a candidate driver for the monotonic decline, and variation in (internal) climatic circulation for the oscillating trend, but others were not ruled out. The recent upturn in streamflows suggests that anthropogenic warming has not been the dominant factor driving streamflow trends, at least until 2015. Climate projections based on simulations that omit drivers of multidecadal variation are likely to underestimate the range, and rate of change, of future climatic variation.  相似文献   
3.
Because of the recent growth in ground-level ozone and increased emission of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), VOC emission control has become a major concern in China. In response, emission caps to control VOC have been stipulated in recent policies, but few of them were constrained by the co-control target of PM2.5 and ozone, and discussed the factor that influence the emission cap formulation. Herein, we proposed a framework for quantification of VOC emission caps constrained by targets for PM2.5 and ozone via a new response surface modeling (RSM) technique, achieving 50% computational cost savings of the quantification. In the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region, the VOC emission caps constrained by air quality targets varied greatly with the NOx emission reduction level. If control measures in the surrounding areas of the PRD region were not considered, there could be two feasible strategies for VOC emission caps to meet air quality targets (160 µg/m3 for the maximum 8-hr-average 90th-percentile (MDA8-90%) ozone and 25 µg/m3 for the annual average of PM2.5): a moderate VOC emission cap with <20% NOx emission reductions or a notable VOC emission cap with >60% NOx emission reductions. If the ozone concentration target were reduced to 155 µg/m3, deep NOx emission reductions is the only feasible ozone control measure in PRD. Optimization of seasonal VOC emission caps based on the Monte Carlo simulation could allow us to gain higher ozone benefits or greater VOC emission reductions. If VOC emissions were further reduced in autumn, MDA8-90% ozone could be lowered by 0.3-1.5 µg/m3, equaling the ozone benefits of 10% VOC emission reduction measures. The method for VOC emission cap quantification and optimization proposed in this study could provide scientific guidance for coordinated control of regional PM2.5 and O3 pollution in China.  相似文献   
4.
随着建筑结构的发展,上悬窗日益成为城市建筑窗户的选择,但这种通风条件下腔室火灾的发展特性仍缺乏研究。利用1∶8相似比例的缩尺寸腔室火灾实验台,实验研究了上悬窗不同开口尺寸、不同开窗角度下,通风控制的腔室火灾温度发展特性。实验结果表明,通风控制条件下,腔室火灾温度随着上悬窗开口尺寸和开窗角度的增加而增加,并通过能量平衡分析,建立了通风控制条件下,耦合上悬窗尺寸和开窗角度因素的腔室内部火灾温度预测模型。  相似文献   
5.
明确了建设用地土壤污染状况调查监管的对象,分析了我国现阶段调查监管存在的监管力量不足、从业门槛不明确、实时监管措施缺乏等问题。结合国内外调查工作监管经验和近年苏州工业园区调查监管的探索实践,提出了鼓励引导相关利益方参与调查监管、建立健全从业人员和机构监管制度、引入监理机制、推进信息化过程管理等对策建议。  相似文献   
6.
1-Butyl-2,3-dimethylimidazolium nitrate ([Bmmim][NO3]), a kind of versatile and novel ionic liquids, is widely applied in the modern petrochemical industry. Nevertheless, its thermal hazard safety data at high temperature or thermal disturbance conditions are currently unavailable. Therefore, this study aimed to characterize the thermal risk of [Bmmim][NO3] through auto-ignition temperature measurements, flash point analysis, thermal gravimetric analysis/differential scanning calorimetry (TGA/DSC), TGA-Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (TGA-FTIR) and thermal decomposition kinetics analysis. Additionally, [Bmmim][NO3] was examined using isothermal thermogravimetric analysis at different temperatures (220, 230, 240, 250, 260 and 270 °C). The experimental results show that the flash point of [Bmmim][NO3] is 305.70 ± 9.30 °C and the auto-ignition temperature is 341.00 ± 21.60 °C with an ignition delay time of 8.6 s. In addition, using the nitrogen atmosphere TGA data to calculate the activation energy according to the Friedman, Kissinger and Flynn-Wall-Ozawa methods, roughly the same results were obtained. Finally, TGA-FTIR results show that [Bmmim][NO3] produced acetylene, butane, butanol and carbon dioxide during the thermal decomposition process. This study could provide data support and some guidance for the thermal hazard assessment and safety control of [Bmmim][NO3] during its use and storage.  相似文献   
7.
The High Plains aquifer (HPA) is the primary water source for agricultural irrigation in the US Great Plains. The water levels in many locations of the aquifer have declined steadily over the past several decades because the rate of water withdrawals exceeds recharge, which has been a serious concern to the water resources management in the region. We evaluated temporal trends and variations in agricultural water use and hydroclimatic variables including precipitation, air temperature, reference evapotranspiration, runoff, groundwater level, and terrestrial water storage across the HPA region for different periods from 1985 to 2020 at the grid, county, or region scale. The results showed that water withdrawals decreased from 21.3 km3/year in 1985 to 18.2 km3/year in 2015, while irrigated croplands increased from 71,928 km2 in 1985 to 78,464 km2 in 2015 in the entire HPA. The hydroclimatic time-series showed wetting trends in most of the northern HPA, but drying and warming trends in the southern region from 1985 to 2020. The groundwater level time-series indicated flat trends in the north, but significant declining in the central and southern HPA. Trends in irrigation water withdrawals and irrigation area across the HPA were controlled by the advancement of irrigation systems and technologies and the management of sustainable water use, but also were affected by dynamical changes in the hydroclimatic conditions.  相似文献   
8.
Finding sustainable ways to increase the amount of private land protected for biodiversity is challenging for many conservation organizations. In some countries, organizations use revolving‐fund programs, whereby land is purchased and then sold to conservation‐minded owners under condition they enter into a conservation covenant or easement. The sale proceeds are used to purchase, protect, and sell additional properties, incrementally increasing the amount of protected private land. Because the effectiveness of this approach relies on selecting appropriate properties, we explored factors currently considered by practitioners and how these are integrated into decision making. We conducted exploratory, semistructured interviews with managers from each of the 5 major revolving funds in Australia. Responses indicated although conservation factors are important, financial and social factors are also highly influential. A major determinant was whether the property could be resold within a reasonable period at a price that replenishes the fund. To facilitate resale, often selected properties include the potential for the construction of a dwelling. Practitioners face with clear trade‐offs between conservation, financial, amenity, and other factors in selecting properties and 3 main challenges: recovering the costs of acquisition, protection, and resale; reselling the property; and meeting conservation goals. Our findings suggest the complexity of these decisions may constrain revolving‐fund effectiveness. Drawing from participant responses, we identified potential strategies to mitigate these risks, such as providing adequate recreational space without jeopardizing ecological assets. We suggest managers could benefit from a shared‐learning and adaptive approach to property selection given the commonalities between programs. Understanding how practitioners deal with complex decisions in the implementation of revolving funds helps identify future research to improve the performance of this conservation tool.  相似文献   
9.
Brazil hosts the largest expanse of tropical ecosystems within protected areas (PAs), which shelter biodiversity and support traditional human populations. We assessed the vulnerability to climate change of 993 terrestrial and coastal-marine Brazilian PAs by combining indicators of climatic-change hazard with indicators of PA resilience (size, native vegetation cover, and probability of climate-driven vegetation transition). This combination of indicators allows the identification of broad climate-change adaptation pathways. Seventeen PAs (20,611 km2) were highly vulnerable and located mainly in the Atlantic Forest (7 PAs), Cerrado (6), and the Amazon (4). Two hundred fifty-eight PAs (756,569 km2), located primarily in Amazonia, had a medium vulnerability. In the Amazon and western Cerrado, the projected severe climatic change and probability of climate-driven vegetation transition drove vulnerability up, despite the generally good conservation status of PAs. Over 80% of PAs of high or moderate vulnerability are managed by indigenous populations. Hence, besides the potential risks to biodiversity, the traditional knowledge and livelihoods of the people inhabiting these PAs may be threatened. In at least 870 PAs, primarily in the Atlantic Forest and Amazon, adaptation could happen with little or no intervention due to low climate-change hazard, high resilience status, or both. At least 20 PAs in the Atlantic Forest, Cerrado, and Amazonia should be targeted for stronger interventions (e.g., improvement of ecological connectivity), given their low resilience status. Despite being a first attempt to link vulnerability and adaptation in Brazilian PAs, we suggest that some of the PAs identified as highly or moderately vulnerable should be prioritized for testing potential adaptation strategies in the near future.  相似文献   
10.
为科学有效地论证多种方式组合的冷却屏蔽服在不同环境条件下对人体表面温度控制的效果,需要对冷却系统及人体敏感部位发热量进行客观评估。通过对5名健康男性的高温测试,探究人体在不同环境温度下体表温度的变化,得出胸部、背部及额头为热量最高部位,并构建以“人体-降温屏蔽服-外界环境”为主体的冷却系统数值模型,对不同环境中的屏蔽服冷却效果展开研究,分析穿戴冷却屏蔽服时人体躯干部分的温度分布及影响。结果表明:在屏蔽服中靠近胸部、背部部位引入相变材料和风扇,均可帮助人体降低体温,提高舒适度。  相似文献   
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