Toward sustainable use of natural resources: Nexus between resource rents,affluence, energy intensity and carbon emissions in developing and transition economies

Sustainable use of natural resources would entail ensuring that derived economic benefits today do not undermine the welfare of generations to come. On this basis, this study examines the nexus between natural resource rents and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions disaggregated into production and consumption-based (i.e., trade-adjusted) CO₂ emissions for a selected panel of 45 developing and transition economies over the period 1995–2017. The empirical model also incorporates the impacts of population, affluence, and energy intensity. The results show that affluence increases production-based CO₂ emissions by 1.407%, with the EKC's predicted inverted U-shaped curve only explaining consumption-based CO₂ emissions. Economic reliance on natural resource rents and energy intensification contribute 0.022% and 0.766%, respectively, to CO₂ emissions embedded in territorial production inventories and 0.035% and 0.583%, respectively, to CO₂ emissions embedded in consumption inventories. The bootstrap non-causality test shows that historical data on each variable has significant predictive power for future CO₂ emissions from both sources. The historical information about natural resource rents has significant predictive power over the future levels of affluence and energy intensity. Clearly, the results show that the environmental impact of natural resource rents is stronger when CO₂ emissions are adjusted for trade and varies among the countries, with Bangladesh, Guinea, India, Malaysia, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Vietnam, and Zimbabwe among the most affected countries. Overall, this study provides motivation for policies to keep the use of natural resources within sustainable limits.     

Effects of Amazonian flying rivers on frog biodiversity and populations in the Atlantic rainforest

Given the speed at which humans are changing the climate, species with high degrees of endemism may not have time to avoid extinction through adaptation. We investigated through teleconnection analysis the origin of rainfall that determines the phylogenetic diversity of rainforest frogs and the effects of microclimate differences in shaping the morphological traits of isolated populations (which contribute to greater phylogenetic diversity and speciation). We also investigated through teleconnection analysis how deforestation in Amazonia can affect ecosystem services that are fundamental to maintaining the climate of the Atlantic rainforest biodiversity hotspot. Seasonal winds known as flying rivers carry water vapor from Amazonia to the Atlantic Forest, and the breaking of this ecosystem service could lead Atlantic Forest species to population decline and extinction in the short term. Our results suggest that the selection of morphological traits that shape Atlantic Forest frog diversity and their population dynamics are influenced by the Amazonian flying rivers. Our results also suggest that the increases of temperature anomalies in the Atlantic Ocean due to global warming and in the Amazon forest due to deforestation are already breaking this cycle and threaten the biodiversity of the Atlantic Forest hotspot.     

Spatial cost–benefit analysis of blue restoration and factors driving net benefits globally

Marine coastal ecosystems, commonly referred to as blue ecosystems, provide valuable services to society but are under increasing threat worldwide due to a variety of drivers, including eutrophication, development, land-use change, land reclamation, and climate change. Ecological restoration is sometimes necessary to facilitate recovery in coastal ecosystems. Blue restoration (i.e., in marine coastal systems) is a developing field, and projects to date have been small scale and expensive, leading to the perception that restoration may not be economically viable. We conducted a global cost–benefit analysis to determine the net benefits of restoring coral reef, mangrove, saltmarsh, and seagrass ecosystems, where the benefit is defined as the monetary value of ecosystem services. We estimated costs from published restoration case studies and used an adjusted-value-transfer method to assign benefit values to these case studies. Benefit values were estimated as the monetary value provided by ecosystem services of the restored habitats. Benefits outweighed costs (i.e., there were positive net benefits) for restoration of all blue ecosystems. Mean benefit:cost ratios for ecosystem restoration were eight to 10 times higher than prior studies of coral reef and seagrass restoration, most likely due to the more recent lower cost estimates we used. Among ecosystems, saltmarsh had the greatest net benefits followed by mangrove; coral reef and seagrass ecosystems had lower net benefits. In general, restoration in nations with middle incomes had higher (eight times higher in coral reefs and 40 times higher in mangroves) net benefits than those with high incomes. Within an ecosystem type, net benefit varied with restoration technique (coral reef and saltmarsh), ecosystem service produced (mangrove and saltmarsh), and project duration (seagrass). These results challenge the perceptions of the low economic viability of blue restoration and should encourage further targeted investment in this field.     

Impact of floodplain and Stage 0 stream restoration on flood attenuation and floodplain exchange during small frequent storms

River flooding impacts human life and infrastructure, yet provides habitat and ecosystem services. Traditional flood control (e.g., levees, dams) reduces habitat and ecosystem services, and exacerbates flooding elsewhere. Floodplain restoration (i.e., bankfull floodplain reconnection and Stage 0) can also provide flood management, but has not been sufficiently evaluated for small frequent storms. We used 1D unsteady Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System to simulate small storms in a 5 km-long, second-order generic stream from the Chesapeake Bay watershed, and varied % channel restored (starting at the upstream end), restoration location, restoration bank height (distinguishes bankfull from Stage 0 restoration), and floodplain width/Manning's n. Stream restoration decreased (attenuated) peak flow up to 37% and increased floodplain exchange by up to 46%. Floodplain width and % channel restored had the largest impact on flood attenuation. The incremental effects of new restoration projects on flood attenuation were greatest when little prior restoration had occurred. By contrast, incremental effects on floodplain exchange were greatest in the presence of substantial prior restoration, setting up a tradeoff. A similar tradeoff was revealed between attenuation and exchange for project location, but not bank height or floodplain width. In particular, attenuation and exchange were always greater for Stage 0 than for bankfull floodplain restoration. Stage 0 thus may counteract human impacts such as urbanization.     

高含CO2天然气运输管道缓蚀剂的筛选

大多数天然气藏CO2含量为10%~98%,CO2在不同的温度、压力条件下腐蚀极其严重。文章主要针对高含CO2天然气运输管道腐蚀的问题,开展缓蚀剂的筛选,重点开展CO2腐蚀规律研究与实验,评价环境温度、CO2分压、流动速度对腐蚀规律的影响,明确缓蚀剂的影响因素,结合管材的材质,优选评价不同类型的缓蚀剂,缓蚀效率分别为90.53%和92.64%,在管道凝液介质的气相及液相中都有较高的缓蚀效率。通过设计现场加药工艺及制度,监测评价缓蚀剂缓释效果和腐蚀情况,可防止管道运输过程中CO2腐蚀的侵害,长输管线内腐蚀控制良好。     

区域主体功能实现与自然资源利用的定量关系研究

主体功能区划通过主体功能划分的方式将开发和保护结合,自然资源开发利用复杂化过程中资源利用与目标实现之间亟需实现基本的定量核算关系。本文从自然资源可持续利用角度,试图探讨建立初步的主体功能核算关系,通过核算框架进行生产、生活、生态主体功能概算与比较。以京津冀主体功能区与水资源为例,对所设立的核算关系进行了验证与应用,并构造绝对与相对量指标量化京津冀主体功能量、功能水资源投入量与效率,进行了异空间尺度与异质性功能的比较,为以主体功能实现最大化为目标的资源优化配置提供量化工具。结果显示:①利用生态服务价值测算的当量因子法与水足迹测算的投入产出法,刻画了水资源对于地区主体功能的支撑作用。②利用功能总量与单位功能水资源投入量指标完成了异质性功能在异质性空间上规模、结构、相应水资源效率的比较。基于算例结果得到以下结论:①本文构建的自然资源-主体功能核算关系框架能够有效衔接主体功能规划,定量核算能有效反映与评价资源对区域功能目标、经济开发活动的支撑作用。②区域资源配置存在相对功能实现的效率差异,可根据资源投入与功能产出之间的关系引导实现功能最大化目标的资源配置。合理、有效的量化手段能够推进主体功能制度的落实,也有助于当前中国空间规划体系编制与落实的实际指导效果。     

Numerical simulation of small-scale pool fires of LNG

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) has been largely indicated as a promising alternative solution for the transportation and storage of natural gas. In the case of accidental release on the ground, a pool fire scenario may occur. Despite the relevance of this accident, due to its likelihood and potential to trigger domino effects, accurate analyses addressing the characterization of pool fires of LNG are still missing.In this work, the fire dynamic simulator (FDS) has been adopted for the evaluation of the effects of the released amount of fuel and its composition (methane, ethane, and propane), on the thermal and chemical properties of small-scale LNG pool fire. More specifically, the heat release rate, the burning rate, the flame height, and thermal radiation, at different initial conditions, have been evaluated for pool having diameter smaller than 10 m. Safety distances have been calculated for all the investigated conditions, as well.Results have also been compared with data and correlations retrieved from the current literature. The equation of Thomas seems to work properly for the definition of the height over diameter ratio of the LNG pool fire for all the mixture and the investigated diameters.The addition of ethane and propane significantly affects the obtained results, especially in terms of radiative thermal radiation peaks, thus indicating the inadequacy of the commonly adopted assumption of pure methane as single, surrogate species for the LNG mixture.     

城市天然气工程环境风险评价

结合广州、深圳、东莞、佛山等城市的天然气工程情况,对城市天然气工程的环境风险评价进行了讨论,并采用穆尔哈斯(Moorhowse)和普里恰特(Prichard)提出的热辐射预测模式和爆炸冲击波预测模式对城市天然气工程进行了风险评价.结果表明,如果发生天然气泄漏并引起火灾,假设在10 min以内,城市门站、调压站和城市高中压管道的火球对建筑物和设备的严重损害范围( A 级)最远距离分别为35.8 m、18.0 m和28.7 m,爆炸冲击波严重损害范围( C1 级)分别为距事故处54.8 m、27.8 m和44.4 m.最后从城市门站、调压站选址及输气管道选线、安全防范距离、作业过程中的风险控制与管理以及事故应急对策四方面提出了风险事故的防范措施与对策.     

The social impact of natural hazards: a multi‐level analysis of disasters and forms of trust in mainland China

This study aimed to assess the multi‐level effects of natural hazards on trust in Chinese society. Drawing on the Chinese General Social Survey conducted in 2012 and provincial disaster damage records, it examined the association between individuals’ past experiences of disasters and province‐level damage (measured by the number of affected people, deaths, and economic loss) and various forms of trust: in‐group; out‐group; generalised; and political. The findings indicate that Chinese individuals with experience of disasters have higher levels of out‐group trust but lower levels of political trust. Similarly, at the province level, damage owing to disasters over the past three years (2009–11) positively impacted on residents’ out‐group trust while negatively affecting their political trust. However, when provincial damage was aggregated for disasters over the past five years (2007–11), which included the devastating Sichuan earthquake on 12 May 2008, only total deaths had a positive effect on generalised trust.     

自然贮存环境下某型控制舱贮存寿命评估

目的评估自然贮存环境下某型控制舱贮存寿命。方法针对历年统计的控制舱成败型、不完全故障数据,假设其服从指数分布族、Weibull分布族、极值分布族、对数正态分布族,结合工程实际处理异常数据、"倒挂"数据,采用极小x2估计对分布函数的参数进行估计,采用极小x2检验对各分布函数的合理性进行验证,计算"服从不同自由度下的x2分布随机变量"检验的拟合优度。结果得到了控制舱贮存可靠性分布函数。结论通过统计的故障数据,验证了所提出数学模型评估方法的适用性和正确性,得到了在置信度为0.90、可靠度为0.95条件下控制舱的自然贮存寿命。