A stochastic approach for risk analysis in vapor cloud explosion

A stochastic approach for evaluating the risk of vapor cloud explosions is proposed in this work. The proposed methodology aims to incorporate the effect of uncertainty into the risk analysis to produce a better overall view for the risk. Some stochastic variables are used to estimate the probability of vapor cloud explosions: frequency of the release, the probability of not having an immediate ignition, the probability of delayed ignition and the probability of a vapor cloud explosion given a delayed ignition, as well as different possible meteorological conditions. These stochastic variables are represented with probability distribution curves. Different curves for the frequencies of releases from process equipment types (steel process pipes, flanges, manual valves, actuated valves, etc.), different equipment diameters and different leak sizes are also used in this analysis. Monte Carlo simulation is performed to obtain the risk as a probability distribution using the Analytic Solver Platform. Then the risk distribution curve obtained by Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the probability of satisfying the risk tolerance criterion.     

210m钢筋混凝土烟囱控制爆破拆除数值模拟研究

通过采用LS-DYNA动力学有限元程序,模拟210 m钢筋混凝土烟囱的控制爆破拆除倒塌过程。采用数值模拟方法,不仅可以对控制爆破拆除工程中构筑物倾倒、破坏的重要影响因素进行分析,对有关理论研究结果的正确性和有效性进行验证,还能优化爆破拆除方案、预测实际爆破拆除效果,提高爆破拆除设计与施工的经济性、可靠性和安全性。     

Information Network Topologies for Enhanced Local Adaptive Management

We examined the principal effects of different information network topologies for local adaptive management of natural resources. We used computerized agents with adaptive decision algorithms with the following three fundamental constraints: (1) Complete understanding of the processes maintaining the natural resource can never be achieved, (2) agents can only learn by experimentation and information sharing, and (3) memory is limited. The agents were given the task to manage a system that had two states: one that provided high utility returns (desired) and one that provided low returns (undesired). In addition, the threshold between the states was close to the optimal return of the desired state. We found that networks of low to moderate link densities significantly increased the resilience of the utility returns. Networks of high link densities contributed to highly synchronized behavior among the agents, which caused occasional large-scale ecological crises between periods of stable and high utility returns. A constructed network involving a small set of experimenting agents was capable of combining high utility returns with high resilience, conforming to theories underlying the concept of adaptive comanagement. We conclude that (1) the ability to manage for resilience (i.e., to stay clear of the threshold leading to the undesired state as well as the ability to re-enter the desired state following a collapse) resides in the network structure and (2) in a coupled social–ecological system, the systemwide state transition occurs not because the ecological system flips into the undesired state, but because managers lose their capacity to reorganize back to the desired state. An erratum to this article can be found at .     

城市大气质量模式研究进展

本文通过对大气质量模式发展历史的回顾,及其发展趋势的讨论,认为城市大气质量预报模式的建立与发展主要受以下三个动态因素的支配：（１）政府环境管理目标;（２）科学进步;（３）计算机及信息处理和通讯技术。结合三要素就建立我国城市空气质量预报系统框架进行了讨论。     

迎接地震观测技术的新变革

回顾了地震观测技术发展的三个阶段及其特点。简要总结了随着这几个阶段的技术进步南京基准地震台观测技术的重要变革 ,并从记录地震事件数量、大地震速报作用和推动某些研究的深入等方面评估了由于这些技术进步所带来的地震台效能的提高。对目前地震观测技术从模拟观测向数字观测的转折时期 ,地震台如何尽快过渡 ,充分发挥效能提出了初步对策。     

辽河流域畜禽养殖污染源仿真研究

随着国家对流域水质改善要求的逐渐提高,流域污染源管理变得日益重要。提出了一种基于CPNTOOLS的辽河流域畜禽养殖行业污染源仿真技术,并采用CPNTOOLS软件对辽河流域内一家典型畜禽养殖基地进行了仿真研究,经过多次仿真与数据统计分析,分别得出了该畜禽养殖基地的CODCr,BOD5,NH3-N,TP,TN日排放量的正态分布均值在90%,95%,99%置信水平下的置信区间,并结合排水量分别计算出各污染物指标排放浓度的区间。结合BAT处理技术对污染物浓度削减进行了计算仿真,并得出了处理后CODCr,BOD5,NH3-N,TP,TN排放浓度的正态分布均值在90%,95%,99%置信水平下的置信区间以及排放浓度的极大值和极小值。     

Identification of Driver Model Parameters

The paper presents a driver model, which can be used in a computer simulation of a curved ride of a car. The identification of the driver parameters consisted in a comparison of the results of computer calculations obtained for the driver-vehicle-environment model with different driver data sets with test results of the double lane-change manoeuvre (Standard No. ISO/TR 3888:1975, International Organization for Standardization [ISO], 1975) and the wind gust manoeuvre. The optimisation method allows to choose for each real driver a set of driver model parameters for which the differences between test and calculation results are smallest. The presented driver model can be used in investigating the driver-vehicle control system, which allows to adapt the car construction to the psychophysical characteristics of a driver.     

Simulation of Reflected and Scattered Laser Radiation for Designing Laser Shields

This paper presents a computer simulation of reflected and scattered laser radiation for calculating the angle of laser shields performed with the Laser Shield Solver computer program. The authors describe a method of calculating the shield angle for laser shields which protect workers against reflected and scattered laser radiation and which are made from different materials. The main assumptions of the program, which calculates and simulates reflected laser radiation from any material and which can be used for designing shield angles, are presented. Calculations are compared with measurements of reflected laser radiation. The results for one type of laser and different materials which interacted with a laser beam showed that the Laser Shield Solver was an appropriate tool for designing laser shields and its simulations of reflected laser radiation distribution have practical use.     

含地下采空区岩质边坡的施工过程数值分析

为研究含地下采空区的岩质边坡在施工过程中的各种响应与稳定性,采用SURPAC建立某磷矿的三维地质模型。在边坡坡顶、坡角与采空区四周布置应力与位移监测点。利用接口程序将三维模型导入FLAC3D,计算露天边坡开挖过程中监测点的应力与位移。计算结果表明:坡顶与坡角水平位移与竖向反弹位移随着边坡开挖的进行越来越大,但每步开挖完成后新增的反弹位移越来越小,这与每步开挖的卸载量大小有关。坡顶监测点处于拉应力状态,坡角监测点处于压剪应力状态,在监测点所在位置开挖时,压应力显著变大。地下空区的开挖过程对空区的竖向位移与应力有极大影响,最大主应力在每步开挖完成时突然增加,且增幅很大。建议在施工过程中,加强对采空区与边坡坡顶及坡脚的位移与应力的量测,以确保施工安全。     

数值模拟结合SF_6示踪法确定煤层钻孔瓦斯抽采有效半径

为准确确定煤层钻孔的瓦斯抽采有效半径,实现最优钻孔设计及最佳抽采效果,根据煤层瓦斯流动理论与煤岩体变形理论,建立钻孔抽采煤层瓦斯的气固耦合数学模型。并利用COMSOLMultiphysics软件,模拟SF6气体在瓦斯渗流场内的运移过程。利用SF6气体示踪法进行现场测试。依据相似定律,结合模拟与实测结果确定钻孔抽采有效半径的范围。以黄陵集团一号煤矿306工作面为例进行试验研究。试验结果表明,模拟结果与实测结果基本吻合;在钻孔直径为94 mm,抽采负压为15 kPa的条件下,预抽30天后,试验工作面抽采有效半径为5.88 m。