Uncertainties in QRA: Analysis of losses of containment from piping and implications on risk prevention and mitigation

Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) is commonly used in the chemical industry to support decision-making. Common practices are based on standard methods, such as fault tree, event tree, etc.; in this frame, risk is a function of frequency of events (probability) and associated consequences (negative outcomes), but relevant uncertainties often are not properly taken into account in the derived results. This paper presents the application of an extended risk analysis of loss of containments for a case-study with the following aims: firstly, the uncertainties related to the results of the analysis, which derive from assumption in the application of the standard models, are qualitatively assessed; secondly the application allows evaluating the impact of the uncertainties on the trustworthiness of the results and, finally, commenting about their use in the risk prevention and mitigation.     

Confidence-based quantitative risk analysis for offshore accidental hydrocarbon release events

Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) has been widely used to conduct the assessment of offshore accidental risks. However, the accuracy and validity of QRA is significantly affected by uncertainties when subjective judgments are involved. Therefore, it is unrealistic to determine the probability of a hazardous event by using one single explicit value when safety experts have a relatively low confidence level in their judgments. This paper proposes a new methodology for incorporating uncertainties into conventional QRA using the concept of confidence level. Offshore hydrocarbon release hazards are focused on and a barrier and operational risk analysis (BORA-Release) method is selected as the basic model to illustrate the proposed methodology. A left–right (L–R) bell-shaped fuzzy number is employed and its membership curve is able to control its shape to represent different confidence levels. As to the complex geometry of the bell-shaped fuzzy number, an α-cut operation is introduced to conduct the arithmetic operations of the fuzzy number, and a defuzzification method with total integral value is chosen to match the α-cut operations and acquire complete information for the fuzzy numbers. In the meantime, an optimism index is used to describe the attitude of the decision-maker. One case study is provided in this paper to demonstrate the implementation of this method.     

Morphological characteristics of flashing jet throughout superheated liquid release

Many release problems involve two-phase releases of hazardous materials of superheated liquids with high energy into the atmosphere. Such accidents are accompanied by violent phase transition and form catastrophic flashing jets. In this work, experimental and theoretical analyses were conducted to investigate dynamic characteristics of flashing jet morphology and their dependence on pressure-decay dynamics under different storage pressures, superheats, and nozzle diameters. Flashing jet morphology and angle throughout two-phase releases were captured by a high-speed camera, and the corresponding source pressure in the superheated liquid tank was measured simultaneously. Results show that three typical phases, expansion, stabilization, and decay, are characterized throughout two-phase release based on the evolution of flashing jet morphology. The jet initially expands gradually due to the enhancement of phase transition intensity, and then keeps stable when the intensity reaches its maximum, and terminally decays rapidly due to the depletion of superheated liquid. Phase transition intensity at the nozzle exit is mainly controlled by the pressure-decay dynamics. Bubbles nucleation inception sites gradually move upstream of the nozzle during the pressure decay process increasing the phase transition intensity. The increase of storage pressure, superheat and nozzle diameter promotes the mechanical and thermodynamic effects on the jet breakup. The significant increase of mechanical and thermodynamic effects effectively accelerates droplets evaporation and further affects flashing jet morphology.     

磁湖底泥氮释放通量的研究

本研究通过对磁湖底泥氮释放的特性进行实验室静态模拟实验,测定不同温度对磁湖底泥中氮释放量的影响。结果表明,温度升高时,底泥中NH3-N、TN释放通量增大,NO2-N和NO3-N释放通量减小。磁湖底泥的TN释放通量为-120到-25 mg/m3.d,NH3-N、NO2-N和NO3-N和TN释放通量基本呈负释放,说明磁湖大部分氮元素沉积到底泥中。本研究为探讨磁湖水质的改善提供相关的依据,并为以后关于磁湖的治理研究提供一定参考。     

水位变化对湖泊沉积物营养释放的影响

水位波动可有效调节湖泊生态系统的结构与功能,干湿交替过程引起的沉积物生物地球化学循环途径的改变是其重要机制之一。大量研究结果表明,干湿交替将加速沉积物有机碳的分解,强化沉积物硝化与硝化作用的偶联,促进沉积物磷的酶促水解和厌氧解离,从而增加再度淹没之后水中溶解有机碳和生物可利用性磷的浓度,并减少溶解无机态氮的浓度。有机质的分解是上述过程的关键步骤。因此,必须系统描述湖泊水陆界面土壤和沉积物基本理化性状与水生生物特征,分析干旱过程中沉积物生物地球化学循环途径的变化,了解淹没过程中水柱营养状态与浮游生物群落对沉积物营养释放的响应,从而揭示水位波动调控富营养化过程的机制,即诱发营养脉冲或维系其持续补给,改变营养阈值,进而导致稳态转换。     

氢氧化钽对水体中磷酸盐的吸附去除作用

采用氢氧化钽为吸附剂,对水中磷酸盐的吸附性能进行了研究,考察了吸附时间、pH值、磷酸盐的初始浓度、反应温度对吸附量的影响。实验结果表明:pH值越小,氢氧化钽对磷酸盐的吸附量越大,当pH值为2时氢氧化钽对磷酸盐的吸附性能优,并且pH值对磷酸盐的吸附量影响较大;磷酸盐的初始浓度越大,吸附量越大,吸附平衡时间越短;氢氧化钽对磷酸盐的吸附量和吸附速率都随着温度的升高而增加。在25℃、pH=2、初始浓度为200 mg/L、吸附30 min时达到平衡时最大吸附量为76.69 mg/g。吸附后的氢氧化钽红外谱图在1066 cm-1处出现特征峰,该峰恰好是吸附磷酸盐的伸缩振动峰,并且在638 cm-1与670 cm-1之间Ta-O键由于磷酸盐的吸附发生了蓝移。采用6 mol/L的NaOH对吸附了磷酸盐的氢氧化钽进行解吸,当pH=12时解吸率为52.45%。研究结果表明,氢氧化钽能够有效的去除水溶液中磷酸盐的吸附剂。     

营养条件对污水中小球藻生长及产能效应的影响

以过滤的富营养化的鱼塘废水为培养液,添加外源的碳、氮、磷元素,考察污水中不同的外源无机碳浓度、总氮浓度、总磷浓度对小球藻(Chlorella vulgaris)的生长、油脂含量和烃类含量的影响。在25℃、光照强度为4 500 Lux、光暗比为12L:12D的条件下培养10 d。单因子方差分析和多重比较结果表明:(1)以Na2CO3做碳源,小球藻生物量和烃类含量在外源无机碳浓度为6 mg/L时最高,油脂含量在外源无机碳浓度为12 mg/L最高。(2)以KNO3做氮源,小球藻生物量在总氮浓度为25 mg/L时最高,油脂含量在总氮浓度为15 mg/L时最高,烃含量在总氮浓度为20 mg/L时最高。(3)以KH2PO4做磷源,小球藻生物量和烃类含量在总磷浓度为2 mg/L时最高,油脂含量在总磷浓度为1.5 mg/L时最高。     

Mechanism of lead immobilization by oxalic acid-activated phosphate rocks

Lead (Pb) chemical fixation is an important environmental aspect for human health. Phosphate rocks (PRs) were utilized as an adsorbent to remove Pb from aqueous solution. Raw PRs and oxalic acid-activated PRs (APRs) were used to investigate the effect of chemical modification on the Pb-binding capacity in the pH range 2.0-5.0. The Pb adsorption rate of all treatments above pH 3.0 reached 90%. The Pb binding on PRs and APRs was pH-independent, except at pH 2.0 in activated treatments. The X-ray diffraction analysis confirmed that the raw PRs formed cerussite after reacting with the Pb solution, whereas the APRs formed pyromorphite. The Fourier Transform Infrared spectroscopy analysis indicated that carbonate (CO₃^2-) in raw PRs and phosphate (PO₄^3-) groups in APRs played an important role in the Pb-binding process. After adsorption, anomalous block-shaped particles were observed by scanning electron microscopy with energy dispersive spectroscopy. The X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy data further indicated that both chemical and physical reactions occurred during the adsorption process according to the binding energy. Because of lower solubility of pyromorphite compared to cerussite, the APRs are more effective in immobilizing Pb than that of PRs.     

鸟粪石法回收养猪废水中磷时pH对沉淀物组分的影响

采用鸟粪石沉淀法对养猪废水中的磷进行回收,应用红外光谱和X射线衍射法,并结合物料衡算研究pH变化对沉淀物组分的影响.结果表明,当pH由8.0升至9.0时,磷去除率从85%增加到94%;pH在9.0～11.0范围,磷去除率稳定在94%左右;当pH升高至12.0,磷去除率急剧下降至70％.沉淀物组分为鸟粪石(MgNH₄PO₄·6H₂O)、 钾型鸟粪石(MgKPO₄·6H₂O)、 Ca₃(PO₄)₂·xH₂O和Mg(OH)₂,不含有硫酸盐和碳酸盐.当pH<9.0,沉淀物组分主要为鸟粪石;pH在9.0～10.0范围时,鸟粪石含量降低,钾型鸟粪石、 Ca₃(PO₄)₂·xH₂O含量呈逐渐增加趋势;pH由10.0升至12.0时,鸟粪石含量急剧下降,Ca₃(PO₄)₂·xH₂O和Mg(OH)₂含量快速增加,而钾型鸟粪石快速增加并在pH 11.0达到最大后急剧下降.因此,回收养猪废水中的磷时要获得纯度高的鸟粪石产品,pH值应控制在8.0～9.0.     

海水淡化水在既有管网输配的铁释放控制研究

由于具有强腐蚀性,海水淡化水在既有市政管网输配过程中往往会产生严重的"红水"现象,主要是由于管网中铁的释放.为了研究控制既有管网中铁释放的有效措施,对管龄为30～40 a的钢管和灰口铸铁管内壁的腐蚀瘤进行分析,主要组成物质为Fe3O4和FeOOH;选择腐蚀较严重的钢管进行静态浸泡试验,重点分析了自来水和淡化水的掺混比、pH值、碱度、氯离子和硫酸根离子对铁释放的影响,并以铁浓度为控制量,初步给出了海水淡化水在既有管网中安全输配所需满足的水质条件:自来水和淡化水的掺混比≥2∶1,pH值在7.6以上,碱度>200 mg.L-1.