天津地区相对海平面变化最新进展及发展趋势分析

相对海平面上升是一个缓慢、渐进过程,但长期的积累可以使得上升幅度相当可观,从而加剧风暴潮、海岸侵蚀、海水入侵和咸潮等灾害致灾程度。基于验潮位监测和卫星观测结果显示,全球海平面在20世纪中期平均上升1.5~2.0 mm/a,而近30年中国沿海海平面上升速率为2.6~2.7 mm/a,高于全球平均值。渤海湾天津地区由于地面沉降显著,而导致相对海平面大幅度上升。滨海地区地面沉降速率在未来50至100年内可能会稳定在1.0~2.0 cm/a范围,结合目前海平面上升速率2.7 mm/a,总的相对海平面上升速率处于12.7~22.7 mm/a范围。由此估计,到2050年,天津地区相对海平面将比2012年高出48.3~86.3 cm,而到2100年,将比2012年高出111.8~199.8 cm。     

氧化还原体系低温引发丙烯酸酯乳液聚合安全风险研究

以甲基丙烯酸甲酯、丙烯酸酯乙酯、丙烯酸酯丁酯为反应单体,十二烷基苯磺酸钠为乳化剂,过硫酸铵为氧化剂,亚硫酸氢钠为还原剂,在低温下进行乳液聚合。主要研究了反应单体的热稳定性及反应过程中的相关热力学参数,最后按照规定对该聚合体系进行了安全风险研究。研究结果表明,丙烯酸酯混合单体无热分解放热风险,丙烯酸酯乳液体系的绝热温升(△Tad)为49.6℃,失控体系能达到的最高温度(MTSR)为91.9℃,该体系的最终反应工艺危险度评估为1级,聚合工艺热风险低。     

侧向风速作用下聚氨酯泡沫双火源火蔓延研究

为探究环境风作用下逆向双点火源聚氨酯泡沫火蔓延及融合行为，开展多组对照实验并从材料传热机理角度分析侧向风速对火蔓延行为中火羽流形态、质量损失和辐射热流场等特征参数的影响。结果表明:风速与上述参数之间存在非线性关系。环境风效应使火焰被拉长且敷贴于预热区表面，增大预热区面积和热反馈；侧向风速的增加对FPU板材质量损失的影响逐渐弱化，且板材的熔滴率与风速呈正相关；无论侧向风是否存在，两侧逆向火焰融合后均达到整个蔓延过程中的峰值温度；风速的存在限制了火焰温度与辐射热通量峰值，也缩短了温度和辐射峰值出现的时间。     

高层公寓式住宅建筑电梯协同楼梯疏散策略研究

为探索高层建筑利用电梯协同楼梯疏散以提高疏散效率的可行性，基于现有的电梯协同楼梯疏散研究成果，运用Pathfinder构建某高层住宅建筑实例模型，研究楼层总数及电梯数量对电梯最佳停靠层的影响，提出2个电梯协同楼梯的疏散策略，并对策略进行优化分析。结果表明:电梯最佳停靠层随楼层总数的增加，呈现“平台阶变”的特征和线性增加的趋势，但随楼层总数的增加，最佳疏散层在“平台阶变”后会更加远离顶层；策略1（顶层优先策略）下因存在最佳分离楼层使得该策略下的总疏散时间最短，策略2（分段顶层优先策略）可有效提高电梯利用率，通过对策略2下的人员使用电梯比例进行控制，可进一步提高疏散效率，该优化策略可将总疏散时间从仅楼梯无电梯疏散的804 s缩短到580 s，使疏散效率提升27.9%。     

Optimization-Based Atmospheric Plume Source Identification

This work applies optimization and an Eulerian inversion approach presented by Bagtzoglou and Baun in 2005 in order to reconstruct contaminant plume time histories and to identify the likely source of atmospheric contamination using data from a real test site for the first time. Present-day distribution of an atmospheric contaminant plume as well as data points reflecting the plume history allow the reconstruction and provide the plume velocity, distribution, and probable source. The method was tested to a hypothetical case and with data from the Forest Atmosphere Transfer and Storage (FACTS) experiment in the Duke experimental forest site. In the scenarios presented herein, as well as in numerous cases tested for verification purposes, the model conserved mass, successfully located the peak of the plume, and managed to capture the motion of the plume well but underestimated the contaminant peak.     

Dividing and Uniting Through Naming: The Case of North Carolina's Sea-Level-Rise Policy

Opponents of a proposed sea-level-rise policy in North Carolina, USA, reasoned rhetorically to promote a narrative claiming that the policy supporters’ efforts had failed to meet the criteria of “good” science and the American dream expectancy of “progress.” The critics worked to hinder policy adoption by naming as “villains” scientists who provided research to support the proposed policy. In addition, the opponents named their own efforts to prevent policy based on “bad” science that would “destroy” the American dream as “heroic.” To more effectively respond to such narratives, scientists and policy proponents need to shift away from reporting just climate change “facts” in the attempt to gain stakeholder support for mitigation and adaptation initiatives. They need to move toward reasoning rhetorically to construct narratives that encourage the public to name them as the “heroes” who will achieve the American dream by their actions to mitigate climate-change outcomes.     

条形障碍物对瓦斯爆炸特性影响研究

我国煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故不断出现,造成了巨大的人员伤亡和经济损失,在置障条件下研究瓦斯爆炸特性,对预防和减少瓦斯爆炸事故具有重要意义。利用水平管道式爆炸试验装置,研究密闭管道内条形障碍物的数量和阻塞率对管道内瓦斯最大爆炸压力、火焰速度、最大爆炸压力上升速率和爆炸指数的影响以及敞口状态的影响。研究表明:障碍物对瓦斯爆炸具有显著激励作用,管道内瓦斯最大爆炸压力、火焰速度、最大爆炸压力上升速率和爆炸指数均显著增大,随着障碍物数量和阻塞率的增加,激励作用越明显;敞口状态下管道内最大爆炸压力、最大爆炸压力上升速率和爆炸指数均显著减小,火焰持续传播。研究结果对防治煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故提供一定的理论支持。     

Impact of Sea Level Rise on Groundwater Salinity in a Coastal Community of South Florida1

Guha, Hillol and Sorab Panday, 2012. Impact of Sea Level Rise on Groundwater Salinity in a Coastal Community of South Florida. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(3): 510-529. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00630.x Abstract: Freshwater resources of coastal communities in the United States and world over are threatened by the rate of sea level rise. According to recent estimates by various governmental agencies and climate researchers, the global sea level rise is likely to be between 0.6 and 2.1 m by the year 2100. South Florida is a coastal community and much of its coastline is subject to sea level rise and potential impacts to wetlands and the water resources of the area. To understand what the impact of sea level rise would cause to the groundwater level and salinity intrusion, an integrated groundwater and surface water model was developed for North Miami-Dade and Broward Counties of South Florida. The model was calibrated against daily groundwater heads, base flows in canals, and chloride concentrations for a period of one year and six months. Three separate sensitivity analyses were conducted by increasing the sea level by 0.6, 0.9, and 1.22 m. Results of the simulations shows increase of groundwater heads in some areas from 4 to 15%; whereas the average relative chloride concentrations increased significantly by 100-600% in some wells. The increase in groundwater elevations and chloride concentrations varies from location of the wells and its proximity to the coast. The model results indicate that even a 0.6 m increase in sea level (which is the conservative estimate) is likely to impair the vital freshwater resources in many parts of South Florida.     

电源变压器温升试验中（绕组法）的影响因素及不确定度的评估

本文中探讨的是根据绕组法计算电源变压器绕组温升的试验方法,以及对整个试验过程中环境、仪器设备、仪表、人为因素所引起的误差等对最终试验结果的影响,并对其测量不确定度进行评估。