A Variance Estimator for Constrained Estimates of Change in Relative Categorical Frequencies

Consistent estimators of change and state becomes an issue when sample data come from a mix of permanent and temporary observation units. A joint maximum likelihood estimator of state and change creates estimates of state that depend on antecedent viz. posterior survey results and may differ from estimates of state derived from a single-date analysis of the sample data. A constrained estimator of change in relative categorical frequencies that eliminates this potential inconsistency is proposed and a model based estimator of their sampling variance is developed. The performance of the constrained estimator is quantified against six criteria and a joint maximum likelihood estimator in simulated sampling from 15 populations with three combinations of permanent and temporary samples, four to six categorical class attributes, and constant size between sampling dates. Bias of the constrained estimators was negligible but larger than for joint maximum likelihood estimators. Mean absolute deviations and variances of constrained estimators were generally at par with the joint estimators. Constrained estimators of root mean square errors and achieved coverage of nominal confidence intervals of constrained estimators were occasionally better. A generalized variance function for the constrained estimates of change is provided as a computational shortcut.     

基于生态功能考虑的西北干旱地区生态需水研究

在当前生态需水研究的基础上,选取植被盖度作为衡量绿洲生态功能的主要指标,根据植被盖度和侵蚀率之间的关系,从生态系统的需水机理出发,提出了基于生态功能考虑的西北干旱地区生态需水量计算方法.以额济纳绿洲为例,计算了2000年额济纳绿洲生态需水,并与额济纳绿洲不同时期的生态需水进行了对比分析.     

Degradation of Populus euphratica community in the lower reaches of the Tarim River, Xinjiang, China

IntroductionRiparian systems are aquatic-terrestrial ecotones withunique biotic , biophysical and landscape characteristics(Gregory, 1991 ; Naiman, 1997 ; Wiens , 2002) and areshaped by fluvial geomorphic processes . Riparian plantcommunities perform an i…     

Community response to hazard information

The impact of flood hazard information on public acceptance of a selected flood mitigation strategy was assessed by an analysis of the content of newspaper reports of community reaction and letters to the editor. The impact of personal delivery of a flood hazard map on individual perception of risk and attitude to such information was assessed using personal interviews. The results indicated that media coverage of the flood hazard information reduced public criticism of the works. This result must be partially attributable to the dramatic style of media coverage and the fact that the media only emphasized the positive value of the works. The interview demonstrated that personal delivery of the information raised perception of risk, improved comprehension of flood risk, had no impact on acceptability of risk but discouraged some respondents from seeking such information in the future. Factors to explain the last negative change were identified to be the format of the map sheet and low salience of flood hazard. On the basis of all results, methods to improve community response to hazard information are provided.     

Research based on double coverage rate and reliability of gas detector layout optimization

The gas detector layout should be highly attuned to combustible gas leakage and attain a good reliability in avoiding detector malfunction, which is an important guarantee for the normal production of the chemical industry and other related enterprises. Herein, a gas detector layout optimization method based on double coverage and reliability is proposed. The key gas leakage monitoring area is determined through layout scene field investigation. To improve the detection probability and detection system reliability, the dual coverage target and voting mechanism are set, and the gas detector layout is determined with the ray-casting algorithm according to the coverage target. Combined with FLACS software to simulate a variety of typical leakage conditions under different layout scenarios, the relationship between the leaked gas concentration detected by gas detectors in each layout scheme and time is obtained, and the gas leakage detection probability in each layout scheme, number of detectors that can trigger the alarm, shortest time to trigger the alarm and reliability are comprehensively evaluated. The decision-maker selects the final gas detector layout plan according to the evaluation results and actual site needs. The study shows that the detection probability of each layout scheme set according to the double coverage is high, and multiple detectors can trigger the alarm (up to 100%), which ensures that the alarm can be triggered within 10 s under all applicable conditions. According to the evaluation results, the decision-maker can obtain a layout scheme that not only agrees with the actual site conditions but also attains a high detection probability, short detection time and strong reliability.     

鄂尔多斯盆地植被覆盖动态监测与评价

基于像元分解模型,利用LANDSATNDVI数据,估算了鄂尔多斯盆地2002年7月和2010年7月植被覆盖度,以量化和可视化的形式分析了鄂尔多斯盆地2002年一2010年间植被覆盖度的时空变化特征,探寻了引起植被覆盖度变化的驱动因素。结果表明：2002年一2010年鄂尔多斯盆地植被覆盖度变化明显,平均覆盖度增加了7．35％,改善和明显改善面积增加了35．67％,退化和明显退化面积增加了1．49％。研究区植被覆盖度增加的主要原因是降雨量的增加和一系列生态建设工程的实施;减少的主要原因是恶劣的生态环境和过度的能源开发活动。     

密云水库流域2000-2005年植被覆盖度变化监测

植被是生态系统最重要的组成部分,而植被覆盖度是衡量地表植被状况的一个最重要的指标,是生态系统健康评价的前提和必要的基础。文章利用2000和2005年2个时相的Landsat 7 ETM+遥感影像为数据源,以BP神经网络法为植被覆盖度估算模型,计算了密云水库流域内不同时期的植被覆盖度,生成了该流域2个时相内的植被覆盖度图,以此分析密云水库流域植被覆盖度的时空变化。结果表明,从2000-2005年,密云水库流域内除无植被覆盖类型外(即水域部分),其余土地利用类型的植被覆盖度都呈增加趋势,其中以沙质地和耕地最为明显,分别增长了29.5%和27.3%,并且密云水库流域的平均植被覆盖度不高,尤其西部地区植被覆盖度较差,水土流失和土地沙化情况比较严重。     

生态环境变化遥感评价指数的应用研究——以敖江流域为例

利用1994年5月12日与2009年6月6日的Landsat TM和2001年5月23日的Landsat ETM＋卫星影像,选用遥感生态指数（RSEI）,结合流域的植被覆盖度状况,定量评价了15年间敖江流域的生态环境变化与植被覆盖度变化情况,并对二者的关系进行了简要分析.结果表明：15年间,敖江流域生态等级为优所占的面积比例从13.48％上升到24.90％,增加了304.29 km2;植被覆盖度等级为极高的面积增加比例为29.31％.总体看来,敖江流域生态环境状况和植被覆盖状况均有明显的提高,两者具有较好的对应关系.     

Structural-functional organization of lower vegetation layers in tree communities of the upper timberline ecotone in the Polar Urals

Typologically identical (dwarf birch-herb-dwarf shrub-moss) open and closed larch forests growing on the same altitudinal transect have proved to differ in the structural-functional organization of lower vegetation layers. Coverage, general species composition, and species richness of the herb-dwarf shrub layer are higher in the open forest than in the closed forest. Correlations between individual species of vascular plants weaken upon transition from the open to the closed forest. Conversely, the coverage of the lichen-moss layer increases in the closed forest, which contributes to its role as a factor of selection of vascular plant species against the background of the prevailing influence of the tree layer.