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1.
In Pacific Northwest streams, summer low flows limit water available to competing instream (salmon) and out-of-stream (human) uses, creating broad interest in how and why low flows are trending. Analyses that assumed linear (monotonic) change over the last ~60 years revealed declining low flow trends in minimally disturbed streams. Here, polynomials were used to model flow trends between 1929 and 2015. A multidecadal oscillation was observed in flows, which increased initially from the 1930s until the 1950s, declined until the 1990s, and then increased again. A similar oscillation was detected in precipitation series, and opposing oscillations in surface temperature, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation series. Multidecadal oscillations with similar periods to those described here are well known in climate indices. Fitted model terms were consistent with flow trends being influenced by at least two drivers, one oscillating and the other monotonic. Anthropogenic warming is a candidate driver for the monotonic decline, and variation in (internal) climatic circulation for the oscillating trend, but others were not ruled out. The recent upturn in streamflows suggests that anthropogenic warming has not been the dominant factor driving streamflow trends, at least until 2015. Climate projections based on simulations that omit drivers of multidecadal variation are likely to underestimate the range, and rate of change, of future climatic variation.  相似文献   
2.
This paper responds to recent calls for alternative approaches to the analysis of environmental communication that uncover overlooked voices in the discussion of environmental issues. Borrowing core principles from critical rhetoric, it suggests a way to categorize media messages according to how human–nature relationships are constructed in media discourse. The paper illustrates how, in presenting contrasting and often oppositional constructions of human–nature relationships, the media messages examined articulate three recurrent (but not equal) discourses on global warming. These discourses include (1) nature-as-out-of-reach discourse, (2) nature-as-antagonist discourse, and (3) nature-as-co-present discourse. By juxtaposing these discourses, the paper shows how environmental communication scholars can engage in critical realism and political advocacy to illuminate latent public discourse that holds the potential to champion marginalized voices of nature and accentuate the interconnectedness of humans and the environment.  相似文献   
3.
We exploit recent advances in climate science to develop a physically consistent, yet surprisingly simple, model of climate policy. It seems that key economic models have greatly overestimated the delay between carbon emissions and warming, and ignored the saturation of carbon sinks that takes place when the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide rises. This has important implications for climate policy. If carbon emissions are abated, damages are avoided almost immediately. Therefore it is optimal to reduce emissions significantly in the near term and bring about a slow transition to optimal peak warming, even if optimal steady-state/peak warming is high. The optimal carbon price should start relatively high and grow relatively fast.  相似文献   
4.
Emerging attention has been given to the use of biomass in local areas for its contribution to reducing fossil fuel dependence and mitigating global warming. The objective of the present study is to develop a method that quantitatively assesses the effects of local biomass projects on fossil fuel consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission. A practical method based on a life cycle approach is proposed and applied to a case of bioethanol project in Miyako Islands of Japan. The project is aiming to produce bioethanol from molasses within the islands, and to replace the entire gasoline consumed in the islands to E3 fuel (i.e., a mixture of 3% ethanol and 97% gasoline by volume). The assessment using the developed method revealed that, first, the complete shift from gasoline to E3 fuel allows for decreases in fossil fuel consumption and GHG emission. Second, the performance of the project is improved by the integration of the ethanol plant and the sugar factory. Moreover, the assessment found that, in small-scale bioethanol projects, the contribution of capital goods to life cycle fuel consumption and GHG emission is not negligible.  相似文献   
5.
The ongoing biodiversity crisis becomes evident in the widely observed decline in abundance and diversity of species, profound changes in community structure, and shifts in species’ phenology. Insects are among the most affected groups, with documented decreases in abundance up to 76% in the last 25–30 years in some terrestrial ecosystems. Identifying the underlying drivers is a major obstacle as most ecosystems are affected by multiple stressors simultaneously and in situ measurements of environmental variables are often missing. In our study, we investigated a headwater stream belonging to the most common stream type in Germany located in a nature reserve with no major anthropogenic impacts except climate change. We used the most comprehensive quantitative long-term data set on aquatic insects available, which includes weekly measurements of species-level insect abundance, daily water temperature and stream discharge as well as measurements of additional physicochemical variables for a 42-year period (1969–2010). Overall, water temperature increased by 1.88 °C and discharge patterns changed significantly. These changes were accompanied by an 81.6% decline in insect abundance, but an increase in richness (+8.5%), Shannon diversity (+22.7%), evenness (+22.4%), and interannual turnover (+34%). Moreover, the community's trophic structure and phenology changed: the duration of emergence increased by 15.2 days, whereas the peak of emergence moved 13.4 days earlier. Additionally, we observed short-term fluctuations (<5 years) in almost all metrics as well as complex and nonlinear responses of the community toward climate change that would have been missed by simply using snapshot data or shorter time series. Our results indicate that climate change has already altered biotic communities severely even in protected areas, where no other interacting stressors (pollution, habitat fragmentation, etc.) are present. This is a striking example of the scientific value of comprehensive long-term data in capturing the complex responses of communities toward climate change.  相似文献   
6.
反硝化作用是水生生态系统的主要脱氮过程,与蓝藻生长之间存在对氮素的竞争作用,然而气候变化背景下反硝化脱氮对蓝藻水华发生动态的影响仍不清楚.基于2017~2021年北太湖为期5 a的水质监测历史数据,结合不同温度下蓝藻生长和沉积物泥浆培养实验,探究了湖体反硝化脱氮与蓝藻水华之间的相互影响.监测数据表明,太湖水体藻类生物量(以Chla表示)高值主要出现在夏秋季节,而总氮浓度季节变化规律与藻类生物量完全相反,冬春季较高,夏秋季显著降低,溶解态无机氮主要以硝态氮为主,并且硝态氮浓度在夏秋季节几乎接近于零.总磷浓度与Chla浓度变化一致.蓝藻培养实验结果表明,20℃以下蓝藻不能大量生长繁殖.泥浆培养实验结果发现,太湖反硝化作用的最高温度阈值为25℃,在10~25℃之间反硝化潜力与温度呈现显著的线性关系(R2=0.99).反硝化作用发生的最高硝态氮浓度阈值为4 mg ·L-1,远高于太湖水体的硝态氮浓度,反硝化潜力最高达到(62.98±21.36)μmol ·(kg ·h)-1.太湖水体反硝化速率受到硝态氮浓度的限制,而气候变暖导致湖泊温度提前升高,会使蓝藻提前生长,蓝藻生长对硝态氮的同化吸收会和反硝化作用产生竞争,使得大量氮还未被反硝化作用脱除就被藻类吸收利用,从而加剧蓝藻水华暴发的态势.研究结果对于解释近年来气候变化背景下太湖蓝藻水华反弹的机制具有重要科学意义.  相似文献   
7.
The objective of this study was to predict the number of refrigerators containing CFC-11 blown isolation foam and the amount of CFC-11 banked in these refrigerators. By using a Weibull-based survival function, the number of CFC-11 containing and still-functioning refrigerators was estimated to be approximately 1.6 million in 2013 in Turkey. In order to determine the amount of CFC-11 in the isolation foam of these refrigerators, polyurethane (PU) foam samples were taken from a refrigerator manufactured in 1993 and the quantity of CFC-11 was analyzed by a GC-MS. It was determined that 113–195 mg CFC-11/g PU remains in the PU foam depending on the location such as door, sides, top and bottom. Knowing that a mid-sized refrigerator contains 4 kg PU on average, the total amount of PU foam to be disposed of is 6344 tons when the CFC-11 containing refrigerators in Turkey become obsolete in the near future. Furthermore, 717–1237 tons of CFC-11 are expected to be banked in the PU foam of these refrigerators which will exert an equivalent amount of ozone depleting potential (ODP). In addition, the global warming potential will vary between 3.4 and 5.9 million tons of CO2.  相似文献   
8.
Why has the United States not adopted global warming policies? Because the inner circle of the corporate elite has opposed these policies despite some corporate support for cap-and-trade and other policies. Pro- and anti-positions taken by think tanks that have led the policy debate in the post-Kyoto period are analyzed in order to demonstrate this. The corporate and upper class social ties of the directors of these pro- and anti-think tanks are examined, revealing a corporate elite split between the inner circle opposing these policies, and a ‘public interest sector’ of corporate law and media corporations along with top executives from higher education and other nonprofits that is supportive of policies addressing global warming. To enable adoption of major global warming policies, the corporate inner circle will need to become supportive and forge a class-wide corporate consensus on the need to address global warming.  相似文献   
9.
James E. Lovelock, famed for his Gaia hypothesis, which views the Earth as a living integrated and interconnected self-regulating system whose equilibrium comes about from complex energy-based interactions and feedback loops, ultimately sustaining life, passed away at the end of July, 2022 at the age of 103. Not only are the adaptive mechanisms of Gaia central to the conversation of environmental homeostasis, they lie at the heart of climate change and global warming. Lovelock is also remembered as the co-inventor of the electron capture detector that eventually allowed for the sensitive detection of chlorofluorocarbons and pesticides. Finally, Lovelock’s free-spirited nature and research independence allow academia to rethink current research’s modus operandi.  相似文献   
10.
基于长江中下游地区1961~2100年区域气候模式COSMO-CLM(CCLM)模拟与1961~2005年气象站观测的逐日降水数据,通过统计计算年降水量、强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率4个极端降水指数,研究全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃情景下,长江中下游地区极端降水的时空变化特征。结果表明:(1)全球升温1.5℃情景下,年降水量相对于1986~2005年减少5%,强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率分别增加7%、33%和4%;概率密度曲线表明,年降水量均值下降,强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率均值上升,极端降水方差增大;年降水量、强降水量和暴雨日数在空间上表现为南部增加北部减少,极端降水贡献率则相反。(2)全球升温2.0℃情景下,年降水量下降3%,强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率分别上升15%、46%和15%;年降水量均值稍有减少且方差稍有上升,强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率均值和方差明显增加;年降水量减少区域位于长江主干以北,强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率表现为绝大部分地区增加的空间变化特征。(3)全球升温由1.5℃至2.0℃时,年降水量、强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率分别增加3%、7%、10%和11%;随升温幅度的增加极端降水均值和方差上升;极端降水呈增加态势的范围扩大。因此,努力将升温控制在1.5℃对降低极端降水的影响具有重要意义。  相似文献   
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