Factors affecting the quantitative uncertainty of the estimated short-term intake. Part I—Calculation methods

ABSTRACT

The calculation of the combined uncertainty of the international estimated short-term intake (IESTI) of ethephon residues in apples is shown as an example. The ethephon residues in apples were reported by the Joint FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations)/WHO (World Health Organization) Meeting on Pesticide Residues (JMPR). The apple consumption data were taken from the IESTI (international short-term intake) calculation template used by the JMPR. The IESTI was calculated with the currently used method (case 2a) and a proposed one recommended by the EFSA (European Food Safety Authority)/RIVM (Dutch National Institute for Public Health) Scientific Workshop co-sponsored by FAO and WHO. In this example, the ratio of IESTI_proposed/IESTI_current and their combined relative uncertainty are about 2.8, and 1.7, respectively. The larger IESTI and uncertainty obtained with the proposed equation are the consequence of calculation only with the large portion (LP) instead of its combination with unit mass, and the MRL instead of the highest residue (HR). The LP is the major contributor to the combined uncertainty. Both the calculated IESTI and its combined uncertainty depend on the actual food – pesticide residue combination, and should be calculated for each case.     

基于复杂网络的燃气管线破裂灾害链风险分析*

为提高燃气管线突发事件应急处置决策水平和应急响应能力及效率，采用复杂网络理论和灾害链演化机理对燃气管线破裂灾害事件影响进行耦合分析，构建燃气管线破裂灾害链网络和风险评估模型，并计算得出燃气管线破裂灾害链风险度。为更准确地表达无传播路径的灾害事件之间的关系，将灾害网络中所有最短路径长度的最大值作为其最短路径长度，计算表明这种算法更符合灾害传播实际情况。结果表明:通过燃气管线破裂灾害链风险分析，能够为燃气管线灾害风险控制措施和方案制定提供参考，有利于提高燃气管线破裂灾害事件的应急处置能力和决策水平。     

生物柴油产业链分析

生物柴油是指由植物油、动物油脂等制备得到的单烷烃酯类。它是一种环境友好、清洁排放的燃料,因此是非常理想的石油柴油替代燃料。本文从生物柴油产业链中的原料来源、生产工艺、产品应用以及其效益等方面对这种新型的清洁燃料进行了简单介绍。总之,生物柴油是一种很有发展前景的生物质燃料。     

Urban wild meat consumption and trade in central Amazonia

The switch from hunting wild meat for home consumption to supplying more lucrative city markets in Amazonia can adversely affect some game species. Despite this, information on the amounts of wild meat eaten in Amazonian cities is still limited. We estimated wild meat consumption rates in 5 cities in the State of Amazonas in Brazil through 1046 door-to-door household interviews conducted from 2004 to 2012. With these data, we modeled the relationship between wild meat use and a selection of socioeconomic indices. We then scaled up our model to determine the amounts of wild meat likely to be consumed annually in the 62 urban centers in central Amazonia. A total of 80.3% of all interviewees reported consuming wild meat during an average of 29.3 (CI 11.6) days per year. Most wild meat was reported as bought in local markets (80.1%) or hunted by a family member (14.9%). Twenty-one taxa were cited as consumed, mostly mammals (71.6%), followed by reptiles (23.2%) and then birds (5.2%). The declared frequency of wild meat consumption was positively correlated with the proportion of rural population as well as with the per capita gross domestic product of the municipality (administrative divisions) where the cities were seated. We estimated that as much as 10,691 t of wild meat might be consumed annually in the 62 urban centers within central Amazonia, the equivalent of 6.49 kg per person per year. In monetary terms, this amounts to US$21.72 per person per year or US$35.1 million overall, the latter figure is comparable to fish and timber production in the region. Given this magnitude of wild meat trade in central Amazonia, it is fundamental to integrate this activity into the formal economy and actively develop policies that allow the trade of more resilient taxa and restrict trade in species sensitive to hunting.     

大力推进城市资源循环利用基地建设——以北京市朝阳区资源循环利用产业基地为例

资源循环利用基地的建设是破解城市固体废弃物“邻避效应”的创新道路,有助于新型城市功能区的建设,是推进资源循环利用的主要方式。以北京市朝阳区资源循环利用产业基地为例,研究其基地建设的优势基础及制约因素,通过探索基地建设模式,分析了基地建设的总体思路和重要举措,以期为其他地区资源循环利用基地建设提供经验。     

区块链技术在安全生产信息化建设中的应用

为了促进安全生产信息化平台在数据方面进行分析以及整合,基于区块链本身的匿名性、去中心化、安全性、开放性以及独立性等优势,提出将区块链技术应用于安全生产信息化建设,研究表明,区块链技术的应用将能够为企业针对生产安全状态进行有效监督提供最大的帮助,最大限度的实现资源共享,为企业监督、政府部门监管提供便利条件,各企业之间就安全问题进行交流沟通,安全评价服务机构针对各企业安全生产存在的问题提供更有针对性的服务,同时对于提升服务效率以及服务质量有着重要现实意义。     

基于生态工业的区域光电产业链构建的探讨

生态工业是遵循循环经济理念和生态经济学原理,转变工业经济发展模式,解决人口、资源和环境压力,使人类社会走上可持续发展道路的生产组织方式。介绍了区域光电产业按照生态经济学原理发展的必要性,并从产业链和废物代谢链两方面探讨了生态工业链的构建。     

餐厨垃圾综合资源化处理技术实例研究

在目前餐厨垃圾处理现状基础上,介绍了一种餐厨垃圾处理工艺,采用机械生物处理技术,包括收运系统、粉碎分选预处理、厌氧发酵生物处理、沼气热电联供、有机堆肥、废水处理、除臭系统多个环节,分离出油脂进行回收,垃圾厌氧发酵产生沼气发电,沼渣进行堆肥,以期实现餐厨垃圾减量化、无害化、资源化,解决"垃圾猪"、"地沟油"问题。     

基于PCR-TGGE技术的餐厨垃圾厌氧消化微生物群落结构解析

为了解不同负荷下单相餐厨垃圾厌氧消化反应器内微生物群落结构演替特征,在单相厌氧消化反应器负荷为2.0～8.5kg·m-·3d-1(以VS计)的不同负荷条件下取样,运用16SrDNA的PCR-TGGE技术对反应器内微生物进行动态追踪.同时,运用Dice系统和NMDS软件对PCR-TGGE图谱进行分析.结果表明,负荷为4.0～6.0kg·m-·3d-1时,微生物群落结构变化不大;负荷为6.0～7.0kg·m-·3d-1时,微生物群落结构变化较为明显;负荷分别为7.0～8.0kg·m-·3d-1及8.5kg·m-·3d-1时,微生物群落结构变化最为明显.纵观整个过程,在餐厨垃圾厌氧消化反应器有机负荷在2.0～8.5kg·m-·3d-1下厌氧反应器内的微生物群落结构存在明显的阶段性演替;负荷为7.0kg·m-·3d-1时微生物群落结构的丰富度最好.     

全氟辛烷磺酸(PFOS)对斑马鱼卵黄蛋白原mRNA水平的影响

为了研究环境低剂量全氟辛烷磺酸（perfluorooctane sulfonate,PFOS）对水生生物的内分泌干扰效应和可能的作用机制,测定了PFOS对斑马鱼（Brachydanio rerio）肝脏中卵黄蛋白原（vitellogenin,VTG）mRNA水平的影响.将斑马鱼暴露于4个PFOS的环境低剂量浓度组（0.1、1、10、100μg.L-1）中进行21d毒性试验,收集肝脏样品,提取RNA,采用荧光定量PCR（qRT-PCR）分别检测VTG1和VTG3的mRNA水平.结果表明：①PFOS暴露引起雄性斑马鱼肝脏VTG1和VTG3 mRNA水平升高,VTG1 mRNA水平升高与剂量呈正相关,在100μg.L-1暴露浓度处与对照组呈现显著性差异;VTG3的mRNA水平变化与剂量呈倒U型曲线,呈现典型的毒物刺激荷尔蒙效应,在10和100μg.L-1暴露浓度处与对照组呈现显著性差异;②PFOS暴露引起雌性斑马鱼肝脏中VTG1 mRNA水平升高,在10μg.L-1暴露浓度处与对照组呈现显著性差异,但在高浓度（10和100μg.L-1）处试验结果误差较大;VTG3 mRNA水平只在10μg.L-1暴露浓度处升高,但相比于对照组均没有显著性差异.试验结果表明PFOS暴露对斑马鱼的内分泌干扰作用明显,其毒性作用机制可能是类雌激素效应,而肝脏中VTG1和VTG3mRNA水平可能作为PFOS内分泌干扰效应评价的敏感生物标志物,但VTG1和VTG3 mRNA水平的响应曲线呈现基因亚型和性别差异.