Risk assessment and risk reduction of an acrylonitrile production plant

Reducing accident occurrence in petrochemical plants is crucial, thus appropriately allocating management resources to safety investment is a vital issue for corporate management as international competition intensifies. Understanding the priority of safety investment in a rational way helps achieve this objective.In this study, we targeted an acrylonitrile plant. First, Dow Chemical's Fire and Explosion Index (F&EI) identified the reaction process as having the greatest physical risk. We evaluated the severity of accidents in the reaction process using the Process Safety Metrics advocated by the Center for Chemical Process Safety (CCPS); however, this index does not express damages a company actually experience. To solve this problem, we proposed a new metric that adds indirect cost to CCPS metrics. We adopted fault tree analysis (FTA) as a risk assessment method. In identifying top events and basic events, we attempted to improve the completeness of risk identification by considering accidents from the past, actual plant operation and equipment characteristics, natural disasters, and cyber-attacks and terrorist attacks. Consequently, we identified the top events with high priority in handling because of serious accidents as fire/explosion outside the reactor, fire/explosion inside the reactor, and reactor destruction. The new CCPS evaluation index proposed in this study found that fire and explosion outside the reactor has the highest severity. We considered the creation of the fault tree (FT) diagram of the top event, estimating the occurrence probability, and identifying the risk reduction part and capital investment aimed at risk reduction. As an economically feasible selection method for risk reduction investment, using the difference in loss amounts before and after safety investments indicated investment priority.     

Change in avian functional fingerprints of a Neotropical montane forest over 100 years as an indicator of ecosystem integrity

Ecologically relevant traits of organisms in an assemblage determine an ecosystem's functional fingerprint (i.e., the shape, size, and position of multidimensional trait space). Quantifying changes in functional fingerprints can therefore provide information about the effects of diversity loss or gain through time on ecosystem condition and is a promising approach to monitoring ecological integrity. This, however, is seldom possible owing to limitations in historical surveys and a lack of data on organismal traits, particularly in diverse tropical regions. Using data from detailed bird surveys from 4 periods across more than a century, and morphological and ecological traits of 233 species, we quantified changes in the avian functional fingerprint of a tropical montane forest in the Andes of Colombia. We found that 78% of the variation in functional space, regardless of period, was described by 3 major axes summarizing body size, dispersal ability (indexed by wing shape), and habitat breadth. Changes in species composition significantly altered the functional fingerprint of the assemblage and functional richness and dispersion decreased 35–60%. Owing to species extirpations and to novel additions to the assemblage, functional space decreased over time, but at least 11% of its volume in the 2010s extended to areas of functional space that were unoccupied in the 1910s. The assemblage now includes fewer large-sized species, more species with greater dispersal ability, and fewer habitat specialists. Extirpated species had high functional uniqueness and distinctiveness, resulting in large reductions in functional richness and dispersion after their loss, which implies important consequences for ecosystem integrity. Conservation efforts aimed at maintaining ecosystem function must move beyond seeking to sustain species numbers to designing complementary strategies for the maintenance of ecological function by identifying and conserving species with traits conferring high vulnerability such as large body size, poor dispersal ability, and greater habitat specialization. Article impact statement: Changes in functional fingerprints provide a means to quantify the integrity of ecological assemblages affected by diversity loss or gain.     

Using environmental and geographic data to optimize ex situ collections and preserve evolutionary potential

Maintenance of biodiversity through seed banks and botanical gardens, where the wealth of species’ genetic variation may be preserved ex situ, is a major goal of conservation. However, challenges can persist in optimizing ex situ collections if trade-offs exist among cost, effort, and conserving species evolutionary potential, particularly when genetic data are not available. We evaluated the genetic consequences of population preservation informed by geographic (isolation by distance [IBD]) and environmental (isolation by environment [IBE]) distance for ex situ collections for which population provenance is available. We used 19 genetic and genomic data sets from 15 plant species to assess the proportion of population genetic differentiation explained by geographic and environmental factors and to simulate ex situ collections prioritizing source populations based on pairwise geographic distance, environmental distance, or both. Specifically, we tested the impact prioritizing sampling based on these distances may have on the capture of neutral, functional, or putatively adaptive genetic diversity and differentiation. Individually, IBD and IBE explained limited population genetic differences across all 3 genetic marker classes (IBD, 10–16%; IBE, 1–5.5%). Together, they explained a substantial proportion of population genetic differences for functional (45%) and adaptive (71%) variation. Simulated ex situ collections revealed that inclusion of IBD, IBE, or both increased allelic diversity and genetic differentiation captured among populations, particularly for loci that may be important for adaptation. Thus, prioritizing population collections based on environmental and geographic distance data can optimize genetic variation captured ex situ. For the vast majority of plant species for which there is no genetic information, these data are invaluable to conservation because they can guide preservation of genetic variation needed to maintain evolutionary potential within collections.     

基于模糊推理的FRAM事故定量分析方法研究

为有效克服FRAM事故分析中无法进行定量分析的缺陷，提出结合模糊推理技术的Fuzzy FRAM模型。此改进模型基于FRAM识别系统运行状态；依据功能输出要素的时间/精度属性利用Matlab构建2阶模糊推理系统量化功能输出质量；根据通用性能条件(CPC)及功能输入耦合端口构建功能评价体系，针对评价体系中存在的不确定性信息融合及建模问题，采用模糊证据推理技术，通过模糊信度结构建立、数据处理、信息融合测度后获得功能的风险指数;以既有铁路危险品运输事故为例，验证方法的可行性。结果表明:Fuzzy FRAM模型的评估结果较为精确，是FRAM分析方法的有效补充。     

How farmers develop local ecological knowledge for on-farm tree management: The perspectives of some farming communities of Ghana

Scientific insights into what it means to manage on-farm trees by local farmers, is an essential step towards documenting local ecological knowledge for sustainable landscape management. A study was therefore conducted in the Kumawu Forest District in the Ashanti Region of Ghana to assess how farmers conceptualise on-farm tree management and develop local knowledge for it. Using a case study approach, data were collected through informal interviews and focus group discussions with 120 farmers drawn from 15 communities who were involved in the management of three cropping systems; cocoa, maize and cassava-cocoyam-plantain mix. It was observed that the farmers regard on-farm tree management as a continuous process which occurs in three phases of the farming cycle; land preparation, crop cultivation and fallow management. For each of the three phases, farmers are guided by specific principles that ensure enough light penetration in-between tree crowns in the land preparation phase, suitable spacing between trees and crops in the crop cultivation phase and adequate tree regeneration in the fallow phase. The decisions made during the selection of tree species, spacing of trees adjudged suitable for any particular cropping system and recruitment of saplings prior to the fallow phase of farming constitute tree management. Farmers develop tree management knowledge by studying the physical characteristics of species, matching them to ecological functions they could perform and how they are likely to respond to treatments meant to control or enhance their development. Species are then subjected to trial and recommended or otherwise.     

贵阳市不同粒级地表灰尘中As、Ni水平及权重

根据贵阳市城区土地利用的情况,在不同功能区地表采集灰尘样品,分析As、Ni含量及变异规律。结果表明:贵阳市地表灰尘As、Ni含量分别为17.4mg/kg和50.0mg/kg。工业区地表灰尘中As、Ni含量最高,商贸区和校园等区域As、Ni水平较低。贵阳市地表灰尘中不同颗粒物的质量百分比大小为细颗粒(<105μm)>中等颗粒(105～250μm)>粗颗粒(250～425μm)。As在不同粒径灰尘中含量差别不大,Ni在不同粒径灰尘中含量随粒径增加而降低。细颗粒对灰尘As、Ni的贡献分别为42%和47%。除垃圾站外,贵阳市各功能区地表灰尘不同粒径颗粒物百分比随粒径增大而减小,其中交通区地表灰尘细颗粒所占比例最大。垃圾站地表灰尘中不同粒径颗粒百分比则随粒径增大而增大,As、Ni在垃圾站地表灰尘中颗粒物贡献为中等颗粒>粗颗粒>细颗粒,其余功能区不同粒径颗粒物的贡献基本为细颗粒大于粗颗粒。     

老边区城区环境噪声功能区划分综述

噪声功能区划分是环境保护工作的主要内容之一。通过对营口市老边区自然条件及城区状况的分析,对噪声区域进行了详细科学的划分,为提高人居环境质量、加强噪声防治工作及城市规划建设提供了参考。     

树皮配比对污泥生物-物理联合干燥中试的影响

污泥生物-物理联合干燥技术具有停留时间短、能耗低、减量显著等优势。研究利用自主研制的污泥生物-物理联合干燥反应系统考察了脱水污泥:树皮分别为5:3,7:3和9:3时,污泥生物-物理联合干燥过程中温度、含水率等参数的变化规律。结果表明,污泥温度随干燥时间的延长先增大后减小,含水率随反应时间延长逐渐降低。当脱水污泥:树皮的比例为7:3时,污泥温度迅速升高,在48 h达到3组辅料配比最大值59℃,而后迅速降低,经过168 h处理后含水率从78.6%降低到60.9%,获得水分去除率的最大值57.6%。向脱水污泥中添加适量树皮,能提高其生物-物理联合干燥过程中污泥温度,增强水分去除效果。     

大理市地表水水环境功能区划初探

按照《大理州地表水水环境功能区划技术方案》对大理市地表水水环境功能进行了区划,划分了不同类型的水功能区,用来指导、约束水资源开发利用和保护的实践活动,可作为水资源管理的依据。     

环氧乙烷生产装置的安全分析与评价

综合运用道化学公司火灾、爆炸危险指数评价法,事故树分析以及事件树分析对环氧乙烷生产装置进行安全评价,定量地得出装置的危险程度,定性地分析了各危险因素的大小以及系统中各元件的故障率对事故发生概率的影响程度,并提出了改进措施.结果表明,该装置的危险程度很大,必须加强安全生产管理,采取有效措施控制氧气的浓度,从而降低危险性等级,保证生产安全.