Using a Bayesian network to clarify areas requiring research in a host–pathogen system

Bayesian network analyses can be used to interactively change the strength of effect of variables in a model to explore complex relationships in new ways. In doing so, they allow one to identify influential nodes that are not well studied empirically so that future research can be prioritized. We identified relationships in host and pathogen biology to examine disease‐driven declines of amphibians associated with amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis). We constructed a Bayesian network consisting of behavioral, genetic, physiological, and environmental variables that influence disease and used them to predict host population trends. We varied the impacts of specific variables in the model to reveal factors with the most influence on host population trend. The behavior of the nodes (the way in which the variables probabilistically responded to changes in states of the parents, which are the nodes or variables that directly influenced them in the graphical model) was consistent with published results. The frog population had a 49% probability of decline when all states were set at their original values, and this probability increased when body temperatures were cold, the immune system was not suppressing infection, and the ambient environment was conducive to growth of B. dendrobatidis. These findings suggest the construction of our model reflected the complex relationships characteristic of host–pathogen interactions. Changes to climatic variables alone did not strongly influence the probability of population decline, which suggests that climate interacts with other factors such as the capacity of the frog immune system to suppress disease. Changes to the adaptive immune system and disease reservoirs had a large effect on the population trend, but there was little empirical information available for model construction. Our model inputs can be used as a base to examine other systems, and our results show that such analyses are useful tools for reviewing existing literature, identifying links poorly supported by evidence, and understanding complexities in emerging infectious‐disease systems.     

Reservoir‐host amplification of disease impact in an endangered amphibian

Emerging wildlife pathogens are an increasing threat to biodiversity. One of the most serious wildlife diseases is chytridiomycosis, caused by the fungal pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), which has been documented in over 500 amphibian species. Amphibians vary greatly in their susceptibility to Bd; some species tolerate infection, whereas others experience rapid mortality. Reservoir hosts—species that carry infection while maintaining high abundance but are rarely killed by disease—can increase extinction risk in highly susceptible, sympatric species. However, whether reservoir hosts amplify Bd in declining amphibian species has not been examined. We investigated the role of reservoir hosts in the decline of the threatened northern corroboree frog (Pseudophryne pengilleyi) in an amphibian community in southeastern Australia. In the laboratory, we characterized the response of a potential reservoir host, the (nondeclining) common eastern froglet (Crinia signifera), to Bd infection. In the field, we conducted frog abundance surveys and Bd sampling for both P. pengilleyi and C. signifera. We built multinomial logistic regression models to test whether Crinia signifera and environmental factors were associated with P. pengilleyi decline. C. signifera was a reservoir host for Bd. In the laboratory, many individuals maintained intense infections (>1000 zoospore equivalents) over 12 weeks without mortality, and 79% of individuals sampled in the wild also carried infections. The presence of C. signifera at a site was strongly associated with increased Bd prevalence in sympatric P. pengilleyi. Consistent with disease amplification by a reservoir host, P. pengilleyi declined at sites with high C. signifera abundance. Our results suggest that when reservoir hosts are present, population declines of susceptible species may continue long after the initial emergence of Bd, highlighting an urgent need to assess extinction risk in remnant populations of other declined amphibian species.     

北京市4种不同污水处理系统中病原菌变化研究

采用定量PCR技术,对北京市4种不同污水处理系统中大肠杆菌、军团菌和沙门氏菌随工艺及四季的数量变化进行了追踪研究,以评估病原菌的去除效果及污水回用的健康风险.结果发现,大肠杆菌在夏季进水和出水中的浓度分别在107~108copies·m L-1和105copies·m L-1左右;G-A/O系统对大肠杆菌的去除率最高,平均去除率达99.88%.军团菌在4个污水处理系统中进水浓度为104~105copies·m L-1,出水浓度约为104copies·m L-1,其在剩余污泥样品中浓度较高,达到105~106copies·m L-1.沙门氏菌进水浓度较低,为102~103copies·m L-1,且其在多个工艺段样品中未检出.季节变化对于病原菌的去除具有较大影响.研究表明,大肠杆菌在各污水处理系统中均可检出,且其分布具有一定的季节性,夏季的进出水中浓度相对较高;而军团菌和沙门氏菌浓度在各工艺中则并未呈现出明显的季节性变化.G-A/O系统对3种细菌的整体去除效果最为稳定,去除率较高.大肠杆菌在污水处理厂的出水及剩余污泥中浓度仍然较高,此外,冬季出水中也能检测到沙门氏菌的存在,因此,污水处理厂的出水和污泥排放仍存在一定的生态和健康风险.     

Estimating the spatio-temporal risk of disease epidemics using a bioclimatic niche model

There are presently few tools available for estimating epidemic risks from forest pathogens, and hence informing pro-active disease management. In this study we demonstrated that a bioclimatic niche model can be used to examine questions of epidemic risk in temperate eucalypt plantations. The bioclimatic niche model, CLIMEX, was used to identify regional variation in climate suitability for Mycosphaerella leaf disease (MLD), a major cause of foliage damage in temperate eucalypt plantations around the world. Using historical observations of MLD damage, we were able to convert the relative score of climatic suitability generated by CLIMEX into a severity ranking ranging from low to high, providing for the first time a direct link between risk and impact, and allowing us to explore disease severity in a way meaningful to forest managers. We determined that the ‘Compare Years’ function in CLIMEX could be used for site-specific risk assessment to identify severity, frequency and seasonality of MLD epidemics. We explored appropriate scales of risk assessment for forest managers. Applying the CLIMEX model of MLD using a 0.25° or coarser grid size to areas of sharp topographic relief frequently misrepresented the risk posed by MLD, because considerable variation occurred between individual forest sites encompassed within a single grid cell. This highlighted the need for site-specific risk assessment to address many questions pertinent to managing risk in plantations.     

Comparative effect of thymol or its glucose conjugate,thymol-β-d-glucopyranoside,on Campylobacter in avian gut contents

Campylobacter jejuni is an important human food-borne pathogen that can contaminate meat and poultry during processing. Consequently, strategies are sought to reduce the carriage of C. jejuni in food animals before they arrive at the abattoir. Thymol is a natural product that reduces survivability of Campylobacter in vitro, but its rapid absorption from the proximal alimentary tract limits its bactericidal efficacy in vivo. Thymol-β-d-glucopyranoside is more resistant to absorption than free thymol, but its administration to chickens has not been reported. In the present studies, 1 mM thymol-β-d-glucopyranoside was shown to exhibit near equal anti-Campylobacter activity as 1 mM thymol when incubated anaerobically in avian crop or cecal contents in vitro, resulting in reductions of 1.10–2.32 log₁₀ colony forming units mL^?1 in C. jejuni concentrations after 24 h incubation. In a follow-up live animal study, oral administration of thymol-β-d-glucopyranoside, but not free thymol, significantly lowered (>10-fold) recovery of Campylobacter from the crop of market-aged broilers when compared to placebo-treated controls (n = 6 broilers/treatment). Neither thymol-β-d-glucopyranoside nor thymol affected recovery of Campylobacter from cecal contents of the treated broilers. These results indicate that rapid absorption or passage of free thymol from the crop precluded its anti-Campylobacter activity at this site and throughout the entire gastrointestinal tract. Conversely, lower recovery of Campylobacter from the crop of birds treated with thymol-β-d-glucopyranoside indicates this conjugate was retained and able to be hydrolyzed to biologically active free thymol at this site as intended, yet was not sufficiently protected to allow passage of efficacious amounts of the intact glycoside to the lower gut. Nevertheless, these results warrant further research to see if higher doses or encapsulation of thymol-β-d-glucopyranoside or similar glycosides may yield an efficacious additive to reduce carriage of Campylobacter as well as other pathogens throughout the avian gut.     

Prevalence of the Crayfish Plague Pathogen Aphanomyces astaci in Invasive American Crayfishes in the Czech Republic

Abstract:  In Central Europe invasive North American crayfishes are carriers of the oomycete Aphanomyces astaci, which causes crayfish plague. This lethal disease currently represents one of the major threats to native European crayfishes. We used molecular methods—species-specific amplification and sequencing of the pathogen DNA—to investigate the prevalence of individuals latently infected with A. astaci in 28 populations of two invasive American crayfish species (6 of the signal crayfish [ Pacifastacus leniusculus ] and 22 of the spiny-cheek crayfish [ Orconectes limosus ]) in the Czech Republic. The pathogen occurred in 17 investigated populations. We recorded a high variation in positive reactions, ranging from 0% to 100%, in populations of O. limosus . In P. leniusculus, however, only one individual out of 124 tested positive for the pathogen. There was a clear relationship between the water body type and pathogen prevalence in O. limosus . Infection ratios in isolated standing waters were usually low, whereas in running waters, pathogen prevalence often exceeded 50%. Other evaluated characteristics of potential plague pathogen carriers (size, sex, and the presence of melanized spots in the cuticle) seemed to be unrelated to infection. Our data suggest that in contrast to other European countries, O. limosus seems to be the primary reservoir of crayfish plague in the Czech Republic. Although all populations of alien American crayfishes may be potential sources of infections and should be managed as such, knowledge on the prevalence of the plague pathogen at various localities may allow managers to focus conservation efforts on the most directly endangered populations of native crayfishes.     

基于宏基因组学探讨东平湖水库的菌群结构、耐药基因谱及其公共健康风险

水库中长时间滞留的水体会成为耐药基因的存储库,因此研究其菌群结构、耐药基因谱及其潜在的健康风险具有重要的公共卫生学意义.本研究以东平湖水库的水体和沉积物为研究对象,采用宏基因组测序技术,系统分析其在旱季和雨季中的菌群结构、耐药基因谱、耐药基因水平转移以及携带耐药基因的致病菌类型.结果表明,与水库沉积物相比,水体中的菌群结构和耐药基因谱受季节影响较大,且旱季的总耐药基因丰度明显高于雨季;水库沉积物中总耐药基因丰度高于水体,但水体中耐药基因的水平转移高于沉积物.本研究共检测到20个耐药基因型,377个耐药基因亚型;杆菌素和万古霉素耐药基因分别是水和沉积物中主要的耐药基因型,变形杆菌和放线菌分别是水体和沉积物中主要携带耐药基因的菌群.此外,本研究还鉴定出30株携带耐药基因的致病菌,包括大肠杆菌、肺炎克雷伯菌、铜绿假单胞菌、肠炎沙门氏菌以及鲍曼不动杆菌,其中有2株大肠杆菌携带毒力因子.综上所述,东平湖水库中的耐药基因不仅种类繁多,而且还存在潜在的公共健康风险;因此定期检测水体环境的菌群结构及其耐药基因谱具有重要的科学价值和现实意义.     

Revealing the changes of bacterial community from water source to consumers tap: A full-scale investigation in eastern city of China

This study profiled the bacterial community variations of water from four water treatment systems, including coagulation, sedimentation, sand filtration, ozonation-biological activated carbon filtration (O₃-BAC), disinfection, and the tap water after the distribution process in eastern China. The results showed that different water treatment processes affected the bacterial community structure in different ways. The traditional treatment processes, including coagulation, sedimentation and sand filtration, reduced the total bacterial count, while they had little effect on the bacterial community structure in the treated water (before disinfection). Compared to the traditional treatment process, O₃-BAC reduced the relative abundance of Sphingomonas in the finished water. In addition, ozonation may play a role in reducing the relative abundance of Mycobacterium. NaClO and ClO₂ had different effects on the bacterial community in the finished water. The relative abundance of some bacteria (e.g. Flavobacterium, Phreatobacter and Porphyrobacter) increased in the finished water after ClO₂ disinfection. The relative abundance of Mycobacterium and Legionella, which have been widely reported as waterborne opportunistic pathogens, increased after NaClO disinfection. In addition, some microorganisms proliferated and grew in the distribution system, which could lead to turbidity increases in the tap water. Compared to those in the finished water, the relative abundance of Sphingomonas, Hyphomicrobium, Phreatobacter, Rheinheimera, Pseudomonas and Acinetobacter increased in the tap water disinfected with NaClO, while the relative abundance of Mycobacterium increased in the tap water disinfected with ClO₂. Overall, this study provided the detailed variation in the bacterial community in the drinking water system.     

鼎湖山锥栗种子扩散过程中死亡因素分析

研究了锥栗(Castanopsischinensis)种子扩散过程中死亡的主要因素。实验分为无处理组、鸟类取食组、排除鸟类取食组、排除哺乳动物组和种子袋法。结果表明,扩散前种子主要受栗实象甲(Curculiodavidi)取食和病原体感染,其取食率在鼎湖山3种林型之间显示了较大差异。排除实验的研究表明,锥栗种子在扩散后承受啮齿类、鸟类等动物取食和病原体感染致死的巨大压力,其中无覆盖处理实验组的种子取食平均比例高达93.3%,鸟类对种子取食率约为80%,排除鸟类实验组中的种子平均取食率为92.4%,非哺乳动物对种子的取食在3个林型有差异,但不是显著性的。因此,巨大的种子死亡或丧失是锥栗自然更新率非常低的主要原因。     

Predicting Streambed Sediment and Water Column Escherichia coli Levels at Watershed Scale

A sub‐model for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is developed to predict Escherichia coli levels in the streambed sediment as well as in the water column. New formulations to estimate the levels of E. coli in streambed sediment and the water column are derived. These equations include calculations of E. coli resuspension from the streambed sediment to the water column, E. coli deposition from the water column to the streambed sediment, E. coli growth in the streambed sediment and the water column, and instream E. coli routing. These formulations were programmed in FORTRAN and integrated into SWAT. The modified SWAT model was applied to Squaw Creek Watershed, Iowa, to predict E. coli levels in the stream. Escherichia coli concentrations in the streambed sediment and the water column were monitored extensively in this watershed, and observations were used to verify the model predictions. The model proposed here can predict E. coli concentrations in streambed sediment as well as in the water column. Approximately 58% of the predictions of E. coli levels in the bed sediment were within 1 order of magnitude from the observed value, and in the water column 83% of the predictions of E. coli levels were within 1 order of magnitude. Results suggest that the proposed model will help predictions of instream bacterial contamination.