Factors affecting the quantitative uncertainty of the estimated short-term intake. Part I—Calculation methods

ABSTRACT

The calculation of the combined uncertainty of the international estimated short-term intake (IESTI) of ethephon residues in apples is shown as an example. The ethephon residues in apples were reported by the Joint FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations)/WHO (World Health Organization) Meeting on Pesticide Residues (JMPR). The apple consumption data were taken from the IESTI (international short-term intake) calculation template used by the JMPR. The IESTI was calculated with the currently used method (case 2a) and a proposed one recommended by the EFSA (European Food Safety Authority)/RIVM (Dutch National Institute for Public Health) Scientific Workshop co-sponsored by FAO and WHO. In this example, the ratio of IESTI_proposed/IESTI_current and their combined relative uncertainty are about 2.8, and 1.7, respectively. The larger IESTI and uncertainty obtained with the proposed equation are the consequence of calculation only with the large portion (LP) instead of its combination with unit mass, and the MRL instead of the highest residue (HR). The LP is the major contributor to the combined uncertainty. Both the calculated IESTI and its combined uncertainty depend on the actual food – pesticide residue combination, and should be calculated for each case.     

环境DNA(eDNA)宏条形码技术对枝角类浮游动物物种鉴定及其生物量监测研究

环境DNA(eDNA)宏条形码(Metabarcoding)技术越来越多地被应用于环境中物种定性识别,但如何定量监测物种在环境中的丰度尚未得到解决。本研究以太湖流域常见的5种浮游动物拟同形溞、大型溞、蚤状溞、多刺裸腹溞、老年低额溞为研究对象,建立了一种基于eDNA宏条形码技术的物种定量方法,并与实时荧光定量PCR(qPCR)相比较,研究了eDNA宏条形码技术多物种定量的准确性。结果表明,PCR引物对eDNA宏条形码的物种检测和定量影响显著。313 bp COI313引物对浮游动物物种覆盖度高,但是物种间DNA扩增的偏好性大,不适用于eDNA宏条形码定量检测。基于COI序列重新设计的短COI116引物能够同时检测出所有5个物种。荧光定量PCR(qPCR)物种拷贝数与物种相对占比呈正相关。eDNA宏条形码所检出每个物种的序列数与qPCR定量拷贝数高度一致。综上,eDNA宏条形码技术可实现对浮游动物物种的半定量检测,在生物多样性监测和生物完整性评价有显著的应用价值。     

An evaluation scheme for assessing the effectiveness of intersection movement assist (IMA) on improving traffic safety

Objective: Intersection movement assist (IMA) has been recognized as one of the prominent countermeasures to reduce angle crashes at intersections, which constitute 22% of total crashes in the United States. Utilizing vehicle-based sensors, vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V), and vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) communications, IMA offers extended vision to provide early warning for an imminent crash. However, most of IMA-related research implements their methods and strategies only in simulations, test tracks, or driving simulator studies that have quite a few assumptions and limitations and hence the effectiveness evaluations reported may not be transferable or comparable.

Methods: This study seeks to develop a generalized evaluation scheme that can be used not only to assess the effectiveness of IMA on improving traffic safety at intersections but to facilitate comparisons across similar studies. The proposed evaluation scheme utilizes the concepts of traffic conflict in terms of time-to-collision (TTC) as a crash surrogate. This approach avoids the issue of having insufficient crash frequency data for system evaluation. To measure the effectiveness of IMA on reducing traffic conflicts, a relative risk is calculated for comparing the risk of with/without using the IMA. As a proof-of-concept study, this study applied the proposed evaluation scheme and reported the effectiveness of IMA on improving traffic safety in a field operation test (FOT). Seven test scenarios were conducted at 4 intersections, and a total of 40 participants were recruited to use the IMA for 6 months.

Results: It was estimated that IMA users have 26% fewer conflicts with TTC less than 5 s and have 15% fewer conflicts with TTC less than 4 s. However, the results vary across different sites and different definitions of conflicts in terms of TTC.

Conclusions: Overall, IMA is promising to effectively reduce angle crashes related to sight obstruction and has potential to reduce not only crash frequency but crash severity.     

Effects of climate and land-cover change on the conservation status of gibbons

Species shift their distribution in response to climate and land-cover change, which may result in a spatial mismatch between currently protected areas (PAs) and priority conservation areas (PCAs). We examined the effects of climate and land-cover change on potential range of gibbons and sought to identify PCAs that would conserve them effectively. We collected global gibbon occurrence points and modeled (ecological niche model) their current and potential 2050s ranges under climate-change and different land-cover-change scenarios. We examined change in range and PA coverage between the current and future ranges of each gibbon species. We applied spatial conservation prioritization to identify the top 30% PCAs for each species. We then determined how much of the PCAs are conserved in each country within the global range of gibbons. On average, 31% (SD 22) of each species’ current range was covered in PAs. PA coverage of the current range of 9 species was <30%. Nine species lost on average 46% (SD 29) of their potential range due to climate change. Under climate-change with an optimistic land-cover-change scenario (B1), 12 species lost 39% (SD 28) of their range. In a pessimistic land-cover-change scenario (A2), 15 species lost 36% (SD 28) of their range. Five species lost significantly more range under the A2 scenario than the B1 scenario (p = 0.01, SD 0.01), suggesting that gibbons will benefit from effective management of land cover. PA coverage of future range was <30% for 11 species. On average, 32% (SD 25) of PCAs were covered by PAs. Indonesia contained more species and PCAs and thus has the greatest responsibility for gibbon conservation. Indonesia, India, and Myanmar need to expand their PAs to fulfill their responsibility to gibbon conservation. Our results provide a baseline for global gibbon conservation, particularly for countries lacking gibbon research capacity.     

济宁南部区域耕作层土壤有机碳密度及储量研究

济宁市南部区域是著名的国家商品粮、优质大蒜、优质稻米和有机蔬菜生产基地,由于土壤有机碳作为农田生态系统中土壤肥力的重要组成成分之一,在土壤改良、作物质量和产量提高等方面都有十分重要的作用,因此,对济宁南部区域耕作层土壤有机碳密度及储量的研究具有十分重要的意义。本文以济宁南部煤田地区作为典型区域,以耕作层土壤(0~20cm)为研究对象,采集了79件耕作层土壤样品,利用元素分析仪测定了土壤样品中有机碳含量。经统计分析发现,各类型土壤有机碳密度介于1.92~4.83kg/m2之间,有机碳密度的加权平均值为4.03kg/m2,高于中国表层土壤有机碳密度的平均值2.97kg/m2;通过壤质类型分类而估算的有机碳总储量为4.57×109 kg,通过土壤利用方式分类而估算的有机碳总储量为4.53×109 kg,二者基本吻合;济宁南部区域耕作层土壤有机碳富集程度受人类活动影响较大,耕作层土壤中氮含量与有机碳的线性相关系数为0.924 9;另外,有机碳富集程度与秸秆返田规模也有着一定的关联。研究结果不仅为研究区今后开展耕作层土壤环境质量评价提供依据,也为区域生态平衡研究奠定了基础。     

太原市大气PM_(2.5)中铅同位素特征研究

使用ICP-MS测定太原市2009年夏季至2010年春季典型月份中存在于PM2.5上的铅(Pb)及同位素特征,分析了铅的浓度水平、季节变化特征,探讨了铅同位素丰度比特征,并由富集因子法初步解析了铅的来源。结果显示,太原市环境大气中存在于PM2.5上的Pb含量为270.83ng/m3,低于我国环境空气质量标准(GB3095-2012)中对颗粒物中铅的年均限值,在国内属中等水平。冬季存在于PM2.5中的Pb浓度水平最高,与取暖燃煤排放有关;扬尘中的Pb富集则对春季的Pb污染有较大贡献。Pb与PM2.5的相关性显示夏季和冬季二者来源一致,皆为燃煤排放;206 Pb/207 Pb与208 Pb/206 Pb的同位素丰度比特征也表明PM2.5中Pb的主要源于燃煤排放,由于冬季煤炭消费量较高,其燃烧排放对PM2.5中Pb的贡献高于其他季节。采样期间PM2.5中Pb的富集因子(20.45)显示,Pb主要源于人为活动的排放;春季的富集因子(10.76)接近10,表明春季时自然源的Pb对PM2.5的贡献较大。     

臭氧+曝气生物滤池深度处理工艺试验研究

针对某污水厂出水不达标的情况,本研究采用臭氧(O3)和曝气生物滤池(BAF)组合工艺对其进行深度处理.结果表明,当采用两级臭氧+曝气生物滤池工艺时,出水COD在31～46 mg/L,色度在13～29倍,均达到一级A排放标准.在最佳运行条件下,臭氧氧化使相对分子质量大于50 000的有机物含量减少10％,小于1 000的有机物含量增加14％.曝气生物滤池工艺使相对分子质量小于1 000的有机物含量降低了24％.     

稻田土壤反硝化厌氧甲烷氧化菌的时空分布与群落结构分析

由"Candidatus Methylomirabilis oxyfera"主导发生的以甲烷和亚硝酸盐为底物的反硝化厌氧甲烷氧化反应(nitrite-dependent anaerobic methane-oxidizing,n-damo)的发现,将生物地球化学碳循环和氮循环以新的方式结合起来.本研究以夏季和冬季江阴稻田土壤柱状样品为研究对象,对稻田土壤M.oxyfera-like菌的时空分布和群落结构进行了考察.M.oxyfera-like菌16S rRNA基因的定量PCR结果显示M.oxyfera-like菌的丰度随着土壤深度的增加而增加,且无明显季节性差异,60~200 cm深度的稻田土壤是M.oxyfera-like菌的高丰度区域.M.oxyfera-like菌pmo A基因的系统发育分析和生物多样性分析显示M.oxyfera-like菌的群落结构具有一定的时空异质性,且生物多样性随着土壤深度的增加而增加.这些结果都说明江阴稻田深层土壤(60~200 cm)是适宜M.oxyfera-like菌生存的生态环境.     

七星河湿地氨氧化古菌多样性和丰度及其与环境因子的相关性分析

以典型东北寒温带沼泽湿地——七星河湿地中芦苇和小叶樟植被下不同深度土壤中氨氧化古菌(Ammonia-Oxidizing Archaea,AOA)为研究对象,以编码氨氧化作用关键酶——氨单加氧酶(AMO)的amo A基因为分子标记,通过构建克隆文库和生物信息学方法分析数据,考察了不同植被环境中AOA多样性和丰度的垂直分布规律,及其与环境因子的相关性.研究结果表明,小叶樟植被土壤中AOA amo A基因多样性显著高于芦苇植被土壤中amo A基因多样性,芦苇植被土壤中AOA amo A基因多样性在深度为40~60 cm土层中最高,AOA多样性与NH+4-N、NO-3-N含量呈正相关;小叶樟植被土壤中AOA amo A基因多样性在深度为20~40 cm土层中最高,AOA多样性与NH+4-N、NO-3-N含量呈正相关.芦苇植被土壤中AOA丰度最低值出现于0~20 cm土层中,到20~40 cm土层中出现最高值,随着深度增加AOA丰度下降,AOA丰度则与NO-2-N含量呈正相关.小叶樟植被土壤中AOA丰度变化趋势与芦苇不同,最高值出现于0~20 cm土层中,随着土层深度增加AOA丰度下降,到40~60 cm出现最低值,AOA丰度与NO-2-N、TOC含量呈正相关.两种植被土壤中AOA丰度均在60~90 cm处有升高趋势.芦苇植被土壤中AOA丰度约是小叶樟植被土壤中AOA丰度的1.49倍.以上结果为湿地AOA生态功能及分布模式的研究提供基础数据,对全球氮循环的研究提供补充.     

Complex and nonlinear climate-driven changes in freshwater insect communities over 42 years

The ongoing biodiversity crisis becomes evident in the widely observed decline in abundance and diversity of species, profound changes in community structure, and shifts in species’ phenology. Insects are among the most affected groups, with documented decreases in abundance up to 76% in the last 25–30 years in some terrestrial ecosystems. Identifying the underlying drivers is a major obstacle as most ecosystems are affected by multiple stressors simultaneously and in situ measurements of environmental variables are often missing. In our study, we investigated a headwater stream belonging to the most common stream type in Germany located in a nature reserve with no major anthropogenic impacts except climate change. We used the most comprehensive quantitative long-term data set on aquatic insects available, which includes weekly measurements of species-level insect abundance, daily water temperature and stream discharge as well as measurements of additional physicochemical variables for a 42-year period (1969–2010). Overall, water temperature increased by 1.88 °C and discharge patterns changed significantly. These changes were accompanied by an 81.6% decline in insect abundance, but an increase in richness (+8.5%), Shannon diversity (+22.7%), evenness (+22.4%), and interannual turnover (+34%). Moreover, the community's trophic structure and phenology changed: the duration of emergence increased by 15.2 days, whereas the peak of emergence moved 13.4 days earlier. Additionally, we observed short-term fluctuations (<5 years) in almost all metrics as well as complex and nonlinear responses of the community toward climate change that would have been missed by simply using snapshot data or shorter time series. Our results indicate that climate change has already altered biotic communities severely even in protected areas, where no other interacting stressors (pollution, habitat fragmentation, etc.) are present. This is a striking example of the scientific value of comprehensive long-term data in capturing the complex responses of communities toward climate change.