Investigating cumulative effects across ecological scales

Species, habitats, and ecosystems are increasingly exposed to multiple anthropogenic stressors, fueling a rapidly expanding research program to understand the cumulative impacts of these environmental modifications. Since the 1970s, a growing set of methods has been developed through two parallel, sometimes connected, streams of research within the applied and academic realms to assess cumulative effects. Past reviews of cumulative effects assessment (CEA) methods focused on approaches used by practitioners. Academic research has developed several distinct and novel approaches to conducting CEA. Understanding the suite of methods that exist will help practitioners and academics better address various ecological foci (physiological responses, population impacts, ecosystem impacts) and ecological complexities (synergistic effects, impacts across space and time). We reviewed 6 categories of methods (experimental, meta-analysis, single-species modeling, mapping, qualitative modeling, and multispecies modeling) and examined the ability of those methods to address different levels of complexity. We focused on research gaps and emerging priorities. We found that no single method assessed impacts across the 4 ecological foci and 6 ecological complexities considered. We propose that methods can be used in combination to improve understanding such that multimodel inference can provide a suite of comparable outputs, mapping methods can help prioritize localized models or experimental gaps, and future experiments can be paired from the outset with models they will inform.     

我国辐射环境自动监测系统建设的回顾与展望

辐射环境自动监测是我国辐射环境监测工作的重要内容,是核与辐射安全监管工作的重要手段.本文回顾了“十一五”以来,我国辐射环境自动监测系统建设的进展情况和在核与辐射监管工作中所发挥的作用,总结了辐射环境自动监测系统的建设和运行经验,并对今后的工作进行了展望,提出了完善系统建设和运行的合理化建议.研究指出,作为国家辐射环境监测网的重要组成部分,辐射环境自动监测系统初步具备了对我国省会城市和主要地级城市的辐射环境质量状况的实时监测能力.但由于我国辐射环境自动监测站于2008年底才开始在全国范围内建设,起步较晚、经验不足,依然存在点位数量和代表性不够、自动化程度不够高、软件系统功能不成熟、标准化和规范化问题比较突出,缺乏质量控制技术、运行维护难度大等问题.为此本文提出：第一,增加自动监测站数量,点位布设更有针对性;第二,增加自动监测站的类型;第三,加强软件系统的分析和控制能力;第四,完善相关标准、技术规范和质保体系;第五,完善运行维护体系;第六,增强国际学习和交流.     

长江经济带研究文献分析

长江经济带是我国国土空间开发最重要的东西轴线,近年来推动长江经济带发展逐步上升为新一轮的国家战略。而自长江经济带初步构想于20世纪80年代提出以来,我国学者对长江经济带进行了诸多方面的研究。通过相关研究的文献分析,了解分析文献来源规律,梳理总结文献研究内容,有利于相关学术研究的推进。在查阅了大量相关文献的基础上,首先对文献来源进行分析,接着对长江经济带的概念与范围进行了辨析,再从发展战略、产业发展、交通建设、区域经济差异、区域空间结构、区域协调与合作、地区与长江经济带关系与生态环境等8个方面的对文献内容进行归纳总结与探讨,最后从加强交流合作、宏观微观结合、经典理论应用、关注交通研究、流域联动机制及视野动态开阔等方面对新时期长江经济带研究进行展望。     

大气颗粒物PM_(2.5)监测技术研究进展及展望

大气颗粒物已经成为中国的首要大气污染物,其中PM2.5污染越来越受到政府和相关部门关注,本文综述了国内外对大气颗粒物PM2.5的几种监测方法的研究进展,重点比较了各种监测方法的优缺点,并通过实例对比说明了β-射线法的可靠性及用膜片反演方法提高精确度的可行性,同时就加强国内PM2.5监测技术研究提出相关建议及展望。     

25 years of higher‐order confirmatory factor analysis in the organizational sciences: A critical review and development of reporting recommendations

We discuss how confirmatory factor analysis results should be used to examine potential higher‐order constructs and advocate that researchers present five types of evidence, which are as follows: (1) the ability of the higher‐order model to reproduce the observed covariation among manifest variables; (2) the ability of the higher‐order model to reproduce the observed covariation among manifest variables better than more parsimonious alternative models—and no less well than less parsimonious alternative models; (3) the ability of the higher‐order model to reproduce the observed covariation among lower‐order factors; (4) the ability of the higher‐order factor to explain variation in lower‐order factors; and (5) the ability of the higher‐order factor to explain variation in manifest variables. We illustrate how this type of evidence could be presented with a worked example and contrast our recommendations with the manner in which higher‐order confirmatory factor analysis has been used in the organizational sciences over the past 25 years to support claims regarding higher‐order constructs such as core self‐evaluations and transformational leadership. Our review shows that a substantial proportion of the 44 examined articles failed to present enough evidence to allow readers to understand the size and importance of higher‐order factors. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

飞机撞击下核电厂安全壳载荷曲线相关问题研究

针对大型商用飞机对核电厂反应堆安全壳恶意撞击的安全评估需求,综述了国外确定飞机撞击安全壳载荷曲线的基础理论、试验测试技术和数值模拟方法.首先,从理论上对飞机撞击安全壳的载荷特性和Riera撞击模型进行分析,给出了Riera模型的基本假设、模型各项物理意义及模型的求解方法,明确了靶体碰撞表面的冲击载荷(力)由静载项和动载项组成;其次,分析总结了确定Riera模型中压损载荷参数的试验方法和真实飞机撞击载荷测量的试验技术和实施方法,指出大型商用飞机对核电厂反应堆安全壳恶意撞击属"软冲击"范畴,撞击载荷可用Riera模型计算得到;再者,在数值模拟方面,总结了采用有限元技术进行飞机撞击载荷计算和安全评估的数值模拟方法及其发展趋势;最后,在分析国内开展飞机撞击载荷研究面临问题的基础上,指出从理论上建立飞机撞击载荷-时间曲线计算模型及方法,并通过试验和数值模拟验证是国内确定大型商用飞机撞击安全壳结构载荷曲线比较可行的技术路线.     

Mapping the public first-aid training landscape: a scoping review

While the public can play a vital role in saving lives during emergencies, intervention is only effective if people have the skills, confidence, and willingness to help. This review employs a five-stage framework to systematically analyse first aid and emergency helping literature from 22 countries (predominately in Asia, Australia, Europe, and the United States). The review covers 54 articles that investigate public first-aid knowledge and uptake of first-aid training (40); public confidence in first-aid skills and willingness to help during an emergency (21); and barriers to or enablers of learning first aid and delivering first aid in an emergency (25). The findings identify high levels of perceived knowledge, confidence, and willingness to help, supporting the contention that the public can play a vital role during an emergency. However, the findings also point to low uptake levels, low tested skill-specific knowledge, and barriers to learning first aid and helping, indicating that the first-aid training landscape is in need of improvement.     

典型高原山地城市环境空气质量预报预警平台设计

空气质量预报系统作为一种重要的工具用于为公众提供空气质量预报信息、评估城市空气质量,为污染控制战略、动态环境管理以及决策制定提供支持。研究对国内外环境空气质量预报现状进行了回顾,以云南省为例提出了高原山地城市环境空气质量预报预警体系建设的整体思路,针对系统建设现状,提出了环境空气质量预报预警系统建设所面临的问题以及对未来发展方向的建议。     

系统动力学应用于中国区域绿色发展政策仿真的方法学综述

绿色发展是我国"十三五"时期五大发展理念之一,是解决我国发展与保护矛盾的根本途径。系统动力学是模拟宏观社会经济发展趋势和政策效力的常用分析工具,本文对系统动力学在中国区域绿色发展政策仿真中的应用进行了梳理。研究显示:系统动力学应用的区域范围方面,该方法全面应用于从国家直至县域等各个尺度的区域绿色发展研究,区域绿色发展通常被分解为经济、社会、资源、环境等子系统;应用的主要领域方面,水土资源、能源、水环境、固废治理、绿色产业等领域应用较多,大气环境、绿色消费等领域应用相对较少;方法的改进和完善方面,软系统分析法、各类优化方法和地理信息系统与系统动力学的集成应用日益普遍。文末根据文献梳理情况,提出未来应在决策变量设计、历史数据挖掘、环境系统对经济系统的反馈等方面进行方法改进。