A stochastic approach for risk analysis in vapor cloud explosion

A stochastic approach for evaluating the risk of vapor cloud explosions is proposed in this work. The proposed methodology aims to incorporate the effect of uncertainty into the risk analysis to produce a better overall view for the risk. Some stochastic variables are used to estimate the probability of vapor cloud explosions: frequency of the release, the probability of not having an immediate ignition, the probability of delayed ignition and the probability of a vapor cloud explosion given a delayed ignition, as well as different possible meteorological conditions. These stochastic variables are represented with probability distribution curves. Different curves for the frequencies of releases from process equipment types (steel process pipes, flanges, manual valves, actuated valves, etc.), different equipment diameters and different leak sizes are also used in this analysis. Monte Carlo simulation is performed to obtain the risk as a probability distribution using the Analytic Solver Platform. Then the risk distribution curve obtained by Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the probability of satisfying the risk tolerance criterion.     

提高电捕焦油器安全生产运行的措施

简要叙述了电捕焦油器开工以来存在的问题,对电捕捕焦油器不能安全稳定运行的原因进行了分析,并采取改进措施。实践证明,改进工艺技术合理,方法可行,电捕焦油器运行效果达到指标要求。     

模糊综合评价法在钢铁企业安全投资合理性评价中的应用

为了对钢铁企业安全投资进行模糊综合评价,建立了钢铁企业安全投资的评价体系,确定各因素的权重。得出模糊综合评价矩阵,可对各因素进行评价分析;得出某钢铁企业安全投资现状分数为83.9分,等级为较好,需着重加强安全培训、劳保品、工业卫生等人因素方面的投资;在环境方面的投资较合理。     

210m钢筋混凝土烟囱控制爆破拆除数值模拟研究

通过采用LS-DYNA动力学有限元程序,模拟210 m钢筋混凝土烟囱的控制爆破拆除倒塌过程。采用数值模拟方法,不仅可以对控制爆破拆除工程中构筑物倾倒、破坏的重要影响因素进行分析,对有关理论研究结果的正确性和有效性进行验证,还能优化爆破拆除方案、预测实际爆破拆除效果,提高爆破拆除设计与施工的经济性、可靠性和安全性。     

A closer look at BLEVE overpressure

The overpressure produced by the boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion (BLEVE) is still not well understood. Various methods have been published on the overpressure modeling in the far field. They mostly differ by the modeling of the expansion energy, used to scale the distance to the source where the overpressure needs to be calculated. But these methods usually include a experimentally fitted reduction factor, and are mostly overestimating the overpressures. Today there is a growing interest in modeling the BLEVE overpressure in the near field, for studying the blast effect on critical infrastructure such as bridges and buildings. This requires a much better understanding of the BLEVE blast. This paper goes deeper in the understanding of the physical phenomenon leading to the BLEVE blast wave generation and propagation. First, mid-scale BLEVE experiments in addition to new experimental data for near field blast from a small scale supercritical BLEVE are analyzed. And second, an analysis method of the shocks observed in the experiments is presented based on fundamental gas dynamics, and allows the elaboration of a new modeling approach for BLEVE overpressure, based on the calculation of the initial overpressure and radius of the blast.     

PLS-based EWMA fault detection strategy for process monitoring

Fault detection (FD) and diagnosis in industrial processes is essential to ensure process safety and maintain product quality. Partial least squares (PLS) has been used successfully in process monitoring because it can effectively deal with highly correlated process variables. However, the conventional PLS-based detection metrics, such as the Hotelling's T² and the Q statistics are ill suited to detect small faults because they only use information from the most recent observations. Other univariate statistical monitoring methods, such as the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control scheme, has shown better abilities to detect small faults. However, EWMA can only be used to monitor single variables. Therefore, the main objective of this paper is to combine the advantages of the univariate EWMA and PLS methods to enhance their performances and widen their applicability in practice. The performance of the proposed PLS-based EWMA FD method was compared with that of the conventional PLS FD method through two simulated examples, one using synthetic data and the other using simulated distillation column data. The simulation results clearly show the effectiveness of the proposed method over the conventional PLS, especially in the presence of faults with small magnitudes.     

Performance assessment system of health,safety and environment based on experts' weights and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation

Performance evaluation of Health, Safety and Environment (HSE) is the measurement of a company's achievement in HSE management. In order to receive a comprehensive and objective evaluation result, it is necessary to consider all evaluation factors and experts at different levels when HSE performance assessment is conducted. To improve conventional HSE performance evaluation, where weighted average method was used, a Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation (FCE) method is used in this study by taking experts' weights into account. Further, an HSE operating performance assessment system is designed to simplify manual and complex assessment process and generate charts and analysis reports automatically. Finally, a case of petrochemical enterprise is used to illustrate the effectiveness of the method and system.     

Feasibility of honeycomb monolith supported sugar catalyst to produce biodiesel from palm fatty acid distillate (PFAD)

Carbon coated monolith was prepared by sucrose solution 65 wt.% via dip-coating method. Sulfonation of incomplete carbonized carbon coated monolith was carried out in order to synthesize solid acid catalyst. The textural structure characteristics of the solid acid catalyst demonstrated a low surface area and pore volume. Palm fatty acid distillate (PFAD), a by-product of palm oil refineries, was utilized as oil source in biodiesel production. The esterification reaction subjected to different reaction conditions was performed by using the sulfonated carbon coated monolith as heterogeneous catalyst. The sulfonation process had been performed by using vapour of concentrated H₂SO₄ that was much easier and efficient than liquid phase sulfonation. Total acidity value of carbon coated monolith was measured for unsulfonated sample (0.5 mmol/g) and sulfonated sample (4.2 mmol/g). The effect of methanol/oil ratio, catalyst amount and reaction time were examined. The maximum methyl ester content was 89% at the optimum condition, i.e. methanol/oil molar ratio (15:1), catalyst amount (2.5 wt.% with respect to PFAD), reaction time (240 min) and temperature 80 °C. The sugar catalyst supported on the honeycomb monolith showed comparable reactivity compared with the sugar catalyst powder. However, the catalyst reusability studies showed decrease in FFA% conversion from 95.3% to 68.8% after four cycles as well as the total acidity of catalyst dropped from the value 4.2 to 3.1 mmol/g during these cycles. This might be likely due to the leaching out of SO₃H group from the sulfonated carbon coated monolith surface. The leaching of active species reached a plateau state after fourth cycle.     

Terminating links between emission trading programs

Links between emission trading programs are not immutable, as highlighted by New Jersey׳s exit from the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative in 2011. This raises the question of what to do with existing permits that are banked for future use—choices that have consequences for market behavior in advance of, or upon speculation about, delinking. We consider two delinking policies. One differentiates banked permits by origin, the other treats banked permits the same. We describe the price behavior and relative cost-effectiveness of each policy. Treating permits differently generally leads to higher costs, and may lead to price divergence, even with only speculation about delinking.     

井下光谱多参数分析系统开发

本系统基于气体浓度光学分析方法理论朗伯-比尔(Lambert-Beer)定律、光谱气体检测技术开发,实现了对煤矿火灾与瓦斯灾害超前预警、灾害产生的有毒有害气体实时监测和煤矿环境气体爆炸危险性辨识,对于煤矿灾害防治、救灾过程中杜绝次生灾害,保障煤矿工人及救护队员的生命安全,促进煤矿安全生产具有重要意义。