Using Modeling to Improve Monitoring of Structured Populations: Are We Collecting the Right Data?

Abstract:  Population monitoring is central to most demographic studies and conservation efforts, but it may not always be directed at the most appropriate life stage. We used stochastic simulation modeling to evaluate the effectiveness of a monitoring program for a well-studied population of Eastern Imperial Eagles ( Aquila heliaca ) in Kazakhstan. Specifically, we asked whether the most appropriate data were being collected to understand system state and population dynamics. Our models were parameterized with data collected over the course of 25 years of study of this population. We used the models to conduct simulation experiments to evaluate relationships between monitored or potentially monitored parameters and the demographic variables of interest—population size ( N ) and population growth (λ). Static analyses showed that traditional territory-based monitoring was a poor indicator of eagle population size and growth and that monitoring survivorship would provide more information about these parameters. Nevertheless, these same traditionally monitored territory-based parameters had greater power to detect long-term changes in population size than did survivorship or population structure. Regardless of the taxa considered, threats can have immediate impacts on population size and growth or longer-term impacts on population dynamics. Prudently designed monitoring programs for any species will detect the demographic effects of both types of threats.     

某货车侧翻水污染事件的环境损害评估方法探索

随着我国进入突发水污染事件高发期,面临的水环境形势日益严峻.为了震慑环境污染行为,保证受损的环境资源得到恢复和补偿,量化突发性水污染事件造成的经济损失显得至关重要.本文以重庆市某货车侧翻污染事件为例,构建了一套突发水污染事件环境损害的量化评估方法,并用该方法从财产损害、生态环境资源损害、应急处置行政事务投入费用和调查评估费用这4个方面量化了该事件造成的环境污染损害.     

建设项目竣工验收现场平行样控制指标研究

依据建设项目竣工环境保护验收中污水监测的要求,通过积累大量验收监测质量检查的实验数据,运用数理统计的方法,以化学需氧量和氨氮两个项目为例,建立了质控数据的评价方法,并确定了现场平行样偏差指标的限値。     

深埋岛式地铁车站突发事件时人员疏散模拟研究

在地铁安全性分析中,人员安全疏散是一个关键的考核指标.笔者首先介绍基于规范的人员疏散设计、基于火灾工程学的性能化人员疏散设计思路及计算方法;以某市轨道交通S号线深埋车站为系统原型,通过人员疏散动力学模型对深埋车站的人员疏散过程(1 200 人)进行计算机模拟;研究突发事件时,深埋站点内人员能否安全疏散.     

危险废物分类、识别、监控一体化管理技术研究概述

研究运用环境统计信息系统(ESIS),建立黑龙江省典型危险废物的数据库系统,使其具备系统、完善的查询与追踪功能;提出危险废物易燃性、腐蚀性、反应性和毒性方面定量化的定义,建立基于危险废物成分分析基础上的分类体系,使危险废物的处理与处置具有良好的可操作性;开发危险废物在线识别技术,促进对危险废物进行监管及预警的时效性和有效性;运用GPS、GSM、GPRS、GIS、计算机网络通信和数据处理等监控技术,实施对危险废物运输车辆的远程在线监控;提出危险废物收集、贮存、分离、运输、处理、处置、回收利用过程中的管理法律、法规,促进危险废物全过程管理的有效实现.     

昆明市烟尘控制区建设过程中存在的问题分析

针对昆明市世博、新迎片烟尘控制区环境监测中存在的问题,提出了解决方法加强环保宣传,提高环境意识;加强人员素质培养,提高管理水平;加强除尘脱硫技术的研究和推广,从源头抓起,减少污染等,这样,才能管理好烟尘控制区,真正达到烟尘控制的目的.     

水质总磷总氮在线自动监测技术的研究

通过优化国内外水质总氮总磷的手工和自动监测方法及设计参数,研究了基于紫外催化-过硫酸钾氧化分光光度法的在线监测技术,设计了紫外线加强氧化-消解反应器和20通道自动校准与自动进样集成控制系统。该技术与国家标准监测方法相比大大提高了总磷总氮氧化率和消解速度,实现了在较低温度和常压条件下水质总磷总氮的快速、安全和稳定的在线自动监测,具备了良好的市场推广应用前景。     

城市天然气工程环境风险评价

结合广州、深圳、东莞、佛山等城市的天然气工程情况,对城市天然气工程的环境风险评价进行了讨论,并采用穆尔哈斯(Moorhowse)和普里恰特(Prichard)提出的热辐射预测模式和爆炸冲击波预测模式对城市天然气工程进行了风险评价.结果表明,如果发生天然气泄漏并引起火灾,假设在10 min以内,城市门站、调压站和城市高中压管道的火球对建筑物和设备的严重损害范围( A 级)最远距离分别为35.8 m、18.0 m和28.7 m,爆炸冲击波严重损害范围( C1 级)分别为距事故处54.8 m、27.8 m和44.4 m.最后从城市门站、调压站选址及输气管道选线、安全防范距离、作业过程中的风险控制与管理以及事故应急对策四方面提出了风险事故的防范措施与对策.     

水体重金属污染生物监测的研究进展

综述了重金属的毒性效应和水体重金属污染的现状,介绍了利用水生藻类、浮游动物群落和底栖动物监测水体重金属污染的研究进展及发展趋势。     

Organic residue decomposition: The minicontainer-system a multifunctional tool in decomposition studies

The Minicontainer-test, first described by Eisenbeis (1993), was designed to study the kinetics of organic residue decomposition at a microsite level. It is derived from the litterbag technique and consists of polyethylene minicontainers (volume about 1.5 cm³) filled with a test substrate (litter, straw, cellulose, etc.). The minicontainers (MCs) are closed at either end with plastic gauze discs of variable mesh size (e.g. 20 μm, 250 μm, 500 μm or 2 mm). A definite number of such units are inserted into PVC-bars, which can be implanted into the soil horizontally or vertically, or be exposed on the soil surface horizontally. The bars are very stable and can be exposed in different environments for months to years. If required, the bars can be removed temporarily and stored, e.g. during soil cultivation. Should fresh litter be used, two phases of decomposition can be distinguished: a fast initial phase, which can be mainly related to the effect of leaching, and a second slow phase depending mainly on the activity of soil organisms and litter quality. Several questions can be addressed to investigations using MCs, e.g. 1) parts of the soil fauna which are involved in decomposition (nematodes, microarthropods, and smaller specimens of the macrofauna, e.g. enchytraeidae, diplopods and dipteran larvae) can be extracted from the litter substrate using a miniscale high gradient extractor, 2) the organic mass loss of litter can be determined, 3) microbial biomass (C_mic, N_mic) can be assessed by fumigation extraction and 4) microbial activity (respiration) in the test substrate can also be assessed by use of standardised methods. Compared to litterbag studies, the larger number of small replicate units improves the statistical evaluation. Until today the Minicontainer-test has been applied in forestry and agriculture, e.g. studying the effects of liming, soil restoration and the application of insecticides, e.g. Diflubenzuron (Dimilin) and Btk (Bacillus thuringiensis var.kurstaki).