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基于STIRPAT和GM(1,1)模型的湖南省农地投入碳排放增长机理及趋势预测 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
探索农地投入的碳排放特征、增长机理及趋势预测,并提出减排对策对农业发展向低碳绿色转型具有重要意义。研究采用回归分析法、STIRPAT和GM(1,1)模型解析湖南省农地投入碳排放增长机理并做出趋势预测。结果表明:2000~2014年湖南省农地投入碳排放量呈上升趋势,年均增长率为3.25%,各类碳源中化肥累计的碳排放量最大,其次是农药;此外翻耕、农药、农膜、柴油、灌溉、化肥累计碳排放年均增长量分别为0.68%、3.22%、7.47%、6.42%、2.57%、3.25%。农业人口、人均农业GDP、机械化水平、农业生产效率、农业产业结构显著影响农地碳排放,各因素每发生1%的变动会相应带来农地碳排放量约0.20%、0.95%、0.12%、0.98%和0.93%的变化。通过GM(1,1)模型对2016~2020年湖南省农地投入碳排放量进行预测,碳排放量呈持续上升趋势,2020年预计达到430.43万t。最后根据研究结果提出促进农地投入碳减排的政策建议。 相似文献
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With the environmental carrying capacity reaching its limits and the decreasing margin benefits of traditional production factors, the green transformation and green development through technological innovations has been a major direction for the future development of Chinese industries. However, the characteristics and heterogeneities of various types of industries call for different approaches regarding technological innovations. How to choose the most effective mode of technological innovation according to the characteristics of a certain industry has been a key issue. This paper measures the green total factor productivity of 32 industrial trades using the Slacks Based Measure(SBM)-DDF method. The effects of three innovation modes in the green transformation of industrial industry, including the independent innovation(Ⅱ), the technology introduction(TI), and the government support(GS), are empirically analyzed based on industry heterogeneity. Results indicate that the green total factor productivities of different industries show significant differences if taking into account the energy input and the undesirable output of pollutant emissions. The green total factor productivities of traditional high input,high pollution, and high energy consumption industrial trades were significantly lower than those with obvious green features. The year of 2009 is a leap year for the industrial green transformation in China. For resource-intensive industries, the II and the GS are the important ways to achieve green transformation. For labor-intensive industries, the TI is the best path to achieve green transformation, while for technology-intensive industries, the II is the primary driving force for the promotion of green developments. In addition, the innovation-compensating effect of the current Chinese environmental regulations to the resource-intensive industries has been revealed. Improving the overall scale and the industrial concentration of the industries is also beneficial for the green transformation of the industries. 相似文献
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Yutao Wang Qiu Qiu Guorong Xin Zhongyi Yang Jing Zheng Zhihong Ye Shaoshan Li 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》2013,185(7):5775-5787
Concentrations of six heavy metals (Cu, Ni, Zn, Cd, Cr, and Pb) in sediments and fine roots, thick roots, branches, and leaves of six mangrove plant species collected from the Futian mangrove forest, South China were measured. The results show that both the sediments and plants in Futian mangrove ecosystem are moderately contaminated by heavy metals, with the main contaminants being Zn and Cu. All investigated metals showed very similar distribution patterns in the sediments, implying that they had the same anthropogenic source(s). High accumulations of the heavy metals were observed in the root tissues, especially the fine roots, and much lower concentrations in the other organs. This indicates that the roots strongly immobilize the heavy metals and (hence) that mangrove plants possess mechanisms that limit the upward transport of heavy metals and exclude them from sensitive tissues. The growth performance of propagules and 6-month-old seedlings of Bruguiera gymnorhiza in the presence of contaminating Cu and Cd was also examined. The results show that this plant is not sufficiently sensitive to heavy metals after its propagule stage for its regeneration and growth to be significantly affected by heavy metal contamination in the Futian mangrove ecosystem. However, older mangrove seedlings appeared to be more metal-tolerant than the younger seedlings due to their more efficient exclusion mechanism. Thus, the effects of metal contamination on young seedlings should be assessed when evaluating the risks posed by heavy metals in an ecosystem. 相似文献
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通过监测和田地区生态修复项目实施后所取得生态效益的结果表明,生态修复项目实施后,由于项目区风速降低,温度和相对湿度的变化减少,提高了植被盖度,降低了风蚀量,促进了成土作用的进行,从而逐渐改善了土壤的理化性质。 相似文献
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An attempt to evaluate the recharge source and extent using hydrogeochemistry and stable isotopes in North Henan Plain,China 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Yan Zhang Fadong Li Guangshuai Zhao Jing Li Zhu Ouyang 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》2014,186(8):5185-5197
A thorough understanding of groundwater recharge source, particularly its rate, is usually a prerequisite for effective water resources management. In this paper, we report the impact of Yellow River water seepage from the North Henan Plain, using both hydrogeochemical and stable isotopic analysis data. Seven Yellow River water samples, 10 groundwater samples from a river-parallel transect, and 36 groundwater samples from four different perpendicular transects to the Yellow River in the western, middle, and eastern plain were collected and analyzed. It inferred that cation exchange of Ca2+ and/or Mg2+ for Na+ occurred in groundwaters because of the dissolution of carbonate rocks. The hydrogeochemical results indicate that western piedmont lateral groundwater and the Yellow River are both important sources of groundwater recharge for the western transect of the North Henan Plain, while the former is a greater recharge source for the middle transect, and the latter is a greater recharge source for the eastern transect. Stable isotope data support Yellow River water incursion into the groundwater. The approximate distance (based on chloride concentration) from the Yellow River to border of the impact zone is17.43–23.40 km in the western plain, 52.46 km in the middle plain, and 49.82 km in the eastern plain. 相似文献
8.
对悬浮颗粒物室外人体暴露的测定一直受到可用资源的限制。设计有效的网络就要求对测定方法的选择、采样点的数量、采样时间、采样频率等进行调整。采样位置要求能表征因周围污染源对附近地区和城市最小影响的空间数值。虽然大多数判定PM是否达标的测定方法是每第3天至第6天的24h监测,但是室外人体暴露的评价要求连续监测一整天。最好有1h或更短时间的监测时段。更详细的粒径大小和化学性质数据也很有必要,因为较小的颗粒及其特殊的化学物质要比总的样品质量更有助于反映对健康的不良影响。 相似文献
9.
对悬浮颗粒物室外人体暴露的测定一直受到可用资源的限制,设计有效的网络就要求对测定方法的选择、采样点的数量、采样时间、采样频率等进行调整。采样位置要求能表征因周围污染源对附近地区和城市最小影响的空间数值。虽然大多数判定PM是否达标的测定方法是每第3天至第6天的24h监测,但是室外人体暴露的评价要求连续监测一整天,最好有1h或更短时间的监测时段。更详细的粒径大小和化学性质数据也很有必要,因为较小的颗粒及其特殊的化学物质要比总的样品质量更有助于反映对缝康的不良影响。 相似文献
10.
目前对造纸废水的监测通常采取随机取样,很少考虑污染物在废水中的分布情况,所以取得的样品很难反映污染物的实际排放情况。为此,通过对某造纸厂排废废水中化学需氧量分布夫妻及采样点位的优化研究。 相似文献