臭氧数值预报模型综述

光化学大气质量模型在研究臭氧（O₃）污染以及O₃预报方面具有核心作用，是O₃污染防治决策者的有力工具。文章结合目前中国及国际区域尺度光化学大气质量预报模型的研究与应用，重点论述与O₃有关的大气化学过程在数值预报模型中的数学表达和计算方法，阐述大气物理与大气化学过程在主流大气质量数值预报模型中的实现方法及其优势和缺陷，介绍用于数值预报模型的大气物理过程和湍流参数化方案的最新进展。就当前O₃数值模拟的主要输入资料进行讨论，强调那些易被忽视但又显著影响模型预报能力和效果的诸多因素以及模型效果评估的重要性。结合O₃与复合型大气污染的关系，强调区域大气质量数值预报模型的发展趋势与方向以及在大气环境管理方面的意义和作用。  

空气质量数值模型的构建及应用研究进展

综述了近年来国内外空气质量模型的发展历程、空气质量数值模型构建的关键技术以及应用研究。指出了目前空气质量数值预报及应用主要面临气象条件，尤其是大气边界层模拟、大气污染物排放源和大气物理化学过程等问题。提出，应当通过规范化制作和完善排放源清单数据，建立统一的排放源分析标准，提高排放源数据的准确性；多向发展观测手段，加大监测密度和频率，并进行实验室化学分析，提出适合我国的大气物理化学机制。就空气质量模式而言，对模式方案进行优化，以及使用气象、卫星资料同化等技术手段，将其与观测相结合，构建监测与预报系统相结合的统一体系，应用于多平台。  

Evaluation of Three Air Dispersion Models: ISCST2, ISCLT2, and Screen2 for Mercury Emissions in an Urban Area

The goal of this paper is to compare and evaluate the performance of three air quality regulatory models for mercury releases. The models include Industrial Source Complex Short Term model (ISCST2), Industrial Source Complex Long Term model (ISCLT2), and SCREEN2. The evaluation is conducted in multiple point source urban environment using meteorological data, emission inventory and monitoring data for eight stations for the year 1990 to 1992. The performance of the models is evaluated using eight statistical parameters. The comparison of models results for both quarterly and annual averaging periods shows that ISCST2 predictions qualitatively match the observed concentrations; whereas SCREEN2 predicts highest concentrations and ISCLT2 the lowest concentrations. The summary of statistical analysis obtained by using three different methods of observed concentration (Co) and predicted concentrations (Cp) comparison show that the ISCST2 has a better overall performance than ISCLT2 and SCREEN2 models. However, none of the models met the criteria for a reasonable model. Summaries of 95% confidence limits on normalize mean square error (NMSE), geometric mean variance (VG) and geometric mean bias (MG) for each and among model indicate that of the three models, ISCST2 has the best overall performance indicators. Improved model performance may be achieved by incorporating different types of mercury forms into emission rate and air dispersion calculations.  

Local Air Quality Impacts due to Downwash Around Thermal Power Plants: Numerical Simulations of the Effect of Building Orientation

One of the primary adverse environmental impacts associated with power generation facilities and in particular thermal power plants is local air quality. When these plants are operated at inland areas the dry type cooling towers used may significantly increase ambient concentrations of air pollutants due to the building downwash effect. When one or more buildings in the vicinity of a point source interrupt wind flow, an area of turbulence known as a building wake is created. Pollutants emitted from relatively low level sources can be caught in this turbulence affecting their dispersion. In spite of the fact that natural gas-fired combined-cycle power plants have lower air emission levels compared to other power plants using alternative fossil fuel, they can still create significant local air pollution problems. In this paper, local air quality impacts of a natural gas-fired combined-cycle power plant located in a coastal area are compared with those of another natural gas-fired combined-cycle power plant having identical air emissions but located in an inland area taking into account differences in topography and meteorology. Additionally, a series of scenarios for the inland site have been envisaged to illustrate the importance of plant lay-out configurations paying particular attention to the building downwash effect. Model results showed that different geometrical configurations of the stacks and cooling towers will cause remarkable differences in ambient air pollutant concentrations; thus it is concluded that when selecting a plant site, a detailed site-specific investigation should be conducted in order to achieve the least possible ambient air pollution concentrations with the given emissions.  

A Metamodeling Approach for Integrated Assessment of Air Quality Policies

A method is proposed to build integrated models (also called Metamodels) aimed at quantifying the economic efficiency of air quality policies. This Metamodeling approach is based on the coupling of two complementary models, that operate at different scales in space and time, and which represent the economic and the physical and chemical processes, respectively. The joint consideration of the physico-chemical and techno-economic structure of the pollution control problems permits a comprehensive evaluation of air pollution abatement strategies. The motivating pollution control problems include urban-regional air quality management through efficient energy and traffic control policies. A pilot study, exploiting data collected in the Geneva canton (Switzerland), is used to demonstrate the potential of the approach.  

Local Air Quality Impacts due to Downwash Around Thermal Power Plants: Numerical Simulations of the Effect of Building Orientation

One of the primary adverse environmental impacts associated with power generation facilities and in particular thermal power plants is local air quality. When these plants are operated at inland areas the dry type cooling towers used may significantly increase ambient concentrations of air pollutants due to the building downwash effect. When one or more buildings in the vicinity of a point source interrupt wind flow, an area of turbulence known as a building wake is created. Pollutants emitted from relatively low level sources can be caught in this turbulence affecting their dispersion. In spite of the fact that natural gas-fired combined-cycle power plants have lower air emission levels compared to other power plants using alternative fossil fuel, they can still create significant local air pollution problems. In this paper, local air quality impacts of a natural gas-fired combined-cycle power plant located in a coastal area are compared with those of another natural gas-fired combined-cycle power plant having identical air emissions but located in an inland area taking into account differences in topography and meteorology. Additionally, a series of scenarios for the inland site have been envisaged to illustrate the importance of plant lay-out configurations paying particular attention to the building downwash effect. Model results showed that different geometrical configurations of the stacks and cooling towers will cause remarkable differences in ambient air pollutant concentrations; thus it is concluded that when selecting a plant site, a detailed site-specific investigation should be conducted in order to achieve the least possible ambient air pollution concentrations with the given emissions.  

Evaluation of Three Air Dispersion Models: ISCST2, ISCLT2, and Screen2 for Mercury Emissions in an Urban Area

The goal of this paper is to compare and evaluate the performance of three air quality regulatory models for mercury releases. The models include Industrial Source Complex Short Term model (ISCST2), Industrial Source Complex Long Term model (ISCLT2), and SCREEN2. The evaluation is conducted in multiple point source urban environment using meteorological data, emission inventory and monitoring data for eight stations for the year 1990 to 1992. The performance of the models is evaluated using eight statistical parameters. The comparison of models results for both quarterly and annual averaging periods shows that ISCST2 predictions qualitatively match the observed concentrations; whereas SCREEN2 predicts highest concentrations and ISCLT2 the lowest concentrations. The summary of statistical analysis obtained by using three different methods of observed concentration (Co) and predicted concentrations (Cp) comparison show that the ISCST2 has a better overall performance than ISCLT2 and SCREEN2 models. However, none of the models met the criteria for a reasonable model. Summaries of 95% confidence limits on normalize mean square error (NMSE), geometric mean variance (VG) and geometric mean bias (MG) for each and among model indicate that of the three models, ISCST2 has the best overall performance indicators. Improved model performance may be achieved by incorporating different types of mercury forms into emission rate and air dispersion calculations.  

Monitoring and dispersion modelling of emissions from the fluidised bed combustion of poultry litter

Gaseous emissions from the fluidised bed combustion of chickenlitter were monitored and recorded. Emission data was used tocreate a dispersion model for a proposed site on a poultry farmin Limerick, Ireland. Variables within the combustion unit notonly influenced combustion but also emission levels ofpollutants such as SO₂ and NO_x. CO emissions decreased withuse of the correct ratio between fluidising and secondary air,the staging of secondary air and the degree of turbulence withwhich the secondary air is introduced. Dispersion modelling ofactual combustion at a proposed poultry unit predicted thatground level concentrations for the set of emissions data wouldbe below the limits and guidelines set by air quality standards.This was true for both and line source. Line sourceconcentration levels were less than those for point source.  

Assessment of air pollution from small scale industry

Air pollution due to small scale industries have been found tocause serious occupational health hazards and adverse effects on vegetation and heritage. The study for air pollution impactassessment for brick kiln industries was undertaken. The stackmonitoring exercise was carried out to estimate the pollution level of SPM, SO₂, and NO_x. The ambient air quality was also measured in the vicinity of brick kilns to assess the impact of stack emission on ground level concentration. Characterisation of SPM for toxic metals were studied. Modelling exercise was carried to predict the impact of emission of brick kiln on surrounding environment. To minimise the emission level and ground level concentration, airpollution mitigation measures are suggested.  

Extension of the EUROS Integrated Air Quality Model to Fine Particulate Matter by Coupling to CACM/MADRID 2

The European Operational Smog (EUROS) integrated air quality modelling system has been extended to model fine particulate matter (PM). From an extended literature study, the Caltech Atmospheric Chemistry Mechanism and the Model of Aerosol Dynamics, Reaction, Ionisation and Dissolution were selected and recently coupled to EUROS. Currently, modelling of mass and chemical composition of aerosols in two size fractions (PM_2.5 and PM_10–2.5) is possible. The chemical composition is expressed in terms of seven components: ammonium, nitrate, sulphate, elementary carbon, primary inorganic compounds, primary organic compounds and secondary organic compounds. Calculated PM₁₀ concentrations and chemical composition are presented for two summer months of the year 2003 (1 July to 31 August).