Using Modeling to Improve Monitoring of Structured Populations: Are We Collecting the Right Data?

Abstract:  Population monitoring is central to most demographic studies and conservation efforts, but it may not always be directed at the most appropriate life stage. We used stochastic simulation modeling to evaluate the effectiveness of a monitoring program for a well-studied population of Eastern Imperial Eagles ( Aquila heliaca ) in Kazakhstan. Specifically, we asked whether the most appropriate data were being collected to understand system state and population dynamics. Our models were parameterized with data collected over the course of 25 years of study of this population. We used the models to conduct simulation experiments to evaluate relationships between monitored or potentially monitored parameters and the demographic variables of interest—population size ( N ) and population growth (λ). Static analyses showed that traditional territory-based monitoring was a poor indicator of eagle population size and growth and that monitoring survivorship would provide more information about these parameters. Nevertheless, these same traditionally monitored territory-based parameters had greater power to detect long-term changes in population size than did survivorship or population structure. Regardless of the taxa considered, threats can have immediate impacts on population size and growth or longer-term impacts on population dynamics. Prudently designed monitoring programs for any species will detect the demographic effects of both types of threats.     

氨法脱硫生产氨肥的清洁生产研究

我国因燃煤导致的SO2污染危害十分严重。从清洁生产角度出发,通过比较锅炉烟气脱硫各种方法的优缺点,确定氨法脱硫作为化工企业处理锅炉烟气的工艺。介绍了氨法脱硫机理,工艺各系统结构组成,进行了经济及社会效益分析。氨法脱硫工艺可以去除93％的SO2,处理后的烟气达到了国家排放标准,脱硫副产品硫酸铵可以转交给同区域的企业,深加工为优质化肥。说明发展清洁生产和循环经济是企业预防和控制污染的有效途径,是实现可持续发展战略的必然选择,有利于企业技术进步,提高管理水平,增强综合竞争能力。     

中水回用与效益分析

当前我国水资源供需矛盾日益加剧,实现中水利用是节约水资源的一条有效途径.通过分析中水水源、MBR处理技术及中水用途,结合一个高校实例,进行经济效益分析,并对建设中水回用系统的可行性进行论证.经计算可得效益费用比达到2.38,经济效益是非常明显的,具有实际的参考价值.中水回用不仅节约了水资源而且也产生了明显的经济效益,是城市发展的趋势.     

Addressing Data Deficiency in Classifying Extinction Risk: a Case Study of a Radiation of Bignoniaceae from Madagascar

Abstract:  Of the roughly 12,000 known plant species in Madagascar, only 3% are found in the IUCN (World Conservation Union) Red List of Threatened Species. We assigned preliminary IUCN categories of threat to the species of a comparatively well-known tribe, Coleeae (Bignoniaceae), which comprises an endemic, species-rich radiation in Madagascar. Because the IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria 3.1 discourage the use of the data-deficient category, we developed a novel method for differentiating between range-limited species and poorly sampled species. We used the Missouri Botanical Garden (MBG) gazetteer to determine where other collection efforts had taken place. We drew buffers around each Coleeae locality and determined how many times the surrounding area had been visited since the last sighting of the specimens by intersecting the buffers with all known botanical localities from the MBG gazetteer. We determined that at least 54% of the Coleeae species are threatened with extinction. Assignments of species to this category were often due to predicted future decline within their current area of occupancy and their lack of inclusion within the protected-area network (only 42% of species are known to occur in protected areas). Three species were presumed extinct, and an additional 12 have not been seen in decades. Among the species threatened with extinction, we "rescued" six of them from the data-deficient category by considering both the sample dates and localities of places where they occurred in relation to additional collections that took place in the immediate area. Due to their recent discovery, 15 species remained in the data-deficient category. If Coleeae is representative of the Malagasy flora, or at least of other endemic-radiated plant groups, then species loss in Madagascar may be even more extreme than is realized.     

RESEARCH: Optimizing the Mix of Strategies for Control of Vehicular Emissions

/ A number of strategies for the control of vehicular emissions are being considered by the Philippine government to address Metropolitan Manila's air quality problem. An analytical tool is needed for optimizing criteria pollutant reductions given the budgetary constraints. The simplest approach is to take costs and pollutant removals to be linear with each strategy's scale of activity, and this is readily solved as a linear programming problem. Another approach is to use a dynamic system of weights which shift with progressive improvements in pollutant emissions. The two approaches yield somewhat different results, suggesting the sensitivity of the solution to the assumed weights. The study also illustrates the importance of a sound methodology for evaluating priorities given to different air quality goals. One such methodology may involve a polling of expert panels and the public to gain insight into the relative importance given to competing emissions reduction goals. An informal polling of resource agency staff was conducted and discussed in this paper. The authors take the position that proper planning involves tracing intermediate steps to the final outcome and not just focusing on the latter.KEY WORDS: Vehicular emissions; Urban air quality; Emissions control; Optimization; Manila; Environmental systems analysis     

Response to displaced neighbours in a territorial songbird with a large repertoire

Neighbour recognition allows territory owners to modulate their territorial response according to the threat posed by each neighbour and thus to reduce the costs associated with territorial defence. Individual acoustic recognition of neighbours has been shown in numerous bird species, but few of them had a large repertoire. Here, we tested individual vocal recognition in a songbird with a large repertoire, the skylark Alauda arvensis. We first examined the physical basis for recognition in the song, and we then experimentally tested recognition by playing back songs of adjacent neighbours and strangers. Males showed a lower territorial response to adjacent neighbours than to strangers when we broadcast songs from the shared boundary. However, when we broadcast songs from the opposite boundary, males showed a similar response to neighbours and strangers, indicating a spatial categorisation of adjacent neighbours’ songs. Acoustic analyses revealed that males could potentially use the syntactical arrangement of syllables in sequences to identify the songs of their neighbours. Neighbour interactions in skylarks are thus subtle relationships that can be modulated according to the spatial position of each neighbour.     

城镇排水管道原位固化修复工程碳排放计算与分析

从可持续发展战略角度考虑,降低市政设施的碳排放量是生态文明发展的重要一步。非开挖管道修复方式节能环保、绿色低碳,是管道修复行业升级转型的大趋势。结合四川省射洪市管网修复案例,对修复管道材料生产阶段、材料与设备运输阶段、施工阶段进行了碳足迹追踪。结果表明：材料生产阶段碳排放量为11263.14 kg CO₂e,运输阶段碳排放量为134.78 kg CO₂e,施工阶段碳排放量为539.12 kg CO₂e,分别约占总碳排放量的94.35%、1.13%和4.52%。材料生产阶段碳排放量最大,是控制翻转式原位固化修复碳排放量的关键。对施工过程中材料与能源进行敏感性分析,发现树脂的敏感性最强,其次是无纺布,优化这2种材料或控制其使用量,将对降低翻转式原位固化工程的碳排放有重要作用。     

海口湾海域表层沉积物重金属空间分布特征及其生态风险评价

沉积物中的重金属含量是反映近海环境质量的重要因子。本研究对2018年3月采集的海口湾表层沉积物样品开展了粒度、有机碳（OC）和7项重金属等环境要素分析,探讨了各元素的空间分布及地球化学特征。海口湾表层沉积物中铜（Cu）、铅（Pb）、锌（Zn）、镉（Cd）、铬（Cr）、汞（Hg）和砷（As）含量平均值分别为14.1 mg/kg、27.1 mg/kg、63.7 mg/kg、0.06 mg/kg、41.5 mg/kg、0.050 mg/kg和12.79 mg/kg。Cu、Pb、Zn、Hg与OC含量之间呈较好的正相关性,Cu、Pb、Zn和Cr等重金属元素更易在细粒级的沉积物中富集,Cd和Hg含量分布主要受控于以沿岸河流、工业与城市等为主的点源入海排污,而Cr和As含量分布受入海排污的影响较小。地累积指数法的评价结果显示,海口湾表层沉积物中Cu、Pb、Zn、Cd和Cr均为清洁无污染,Hg和As为轻度污染。潜在生态风险指数法的评价结果表明,海口湾表层沉积物中单项重金属潜在生态风险程度为Hg> Cd> As> Pb> Cu> Cr> Zn,总体表现为中等生态风险。     

基于多种方法的长江上游小流域水质综合评价

选取大河和巴关河流域2018—2022年水质监测数据,运用单因子评价法、Spearman秩相关系数法、综合污染指数法和主成分分析法,对流域水质状况、变化趋势及主要污染物特征进行综合评价分析。结果表明:2018—2022年,大河流域水质未达到地表水Ⅲ类标准;流域整体综合污染指数超过了1,为重污染,下游污染程度较重;营养指标和有机污染物指标存在显著正相关。巴关河流域水质达到了地表水Ⅲ类标准;流域整体综合污染指数未超过1,为中污染,上游污染程度较重;营养指标、有机污染物指标和重金属指标等均呈现出不同程度的相关性。巴关河流域水质总体优于大河流域。TP、NH₃-N、COD_Mn、COD_Cr和BOD₅是影响大河流域和巴关河流域水质的主要因子,均属于有机型及富营养化污染指标,主要来自生活源和农业源。建议选择适宜的评价方法开展系统性小流域污染溯源,分河段有针对性地开展小流域水环境治理。     

碳组分不同监测分析技术的比较

采用在线监测和实验室分析方法,分别在热光透射法(TOT)NIOSH 5040、870升温协议和热光反射法(TOR)IMPROVE-A升温协议下测定PM_2.5中有机碳(OC)、元素碳(EC),并将各测定结果做比对分析。结果表明,在线监测(NIOSH 5040)与实验室分析(IMPROVE-A)结果的相关系数R>0.8,总体相关性较好,EC值差异略大;在线监测与实验室分析在NIOSH 870协议下TC测定值总体相近,OC与EC测定值略有差异;在线监测中NIOSH 5040协议下的OC测定值略低于870协议,EC测定值略高于870协议,日常监测中两种温度协议均可选择。