Dynamic Bayesian networks for reliability evaluation of subsea wellhead connector during service life based on Monte Carlo method

The subsea wellhead connector is a critical connection component between subsea Christmas tree and subsea wellhead for preventing the leakage of oil and gas in the subsea production system. Excited by cyclical loadings due to environmental forces and the other support forces, the subsea wellhead connector is prone to the failure, which could lead to the loss of subsea tree or wellhead integrity and even catastrophic accidents. With the Monte Carlo simulation method, this paper presents a reliability analysis approach based on dynamic Bayesian Networks, aiming to assess the failure probability of the subsea wellhead connector during service life. Take the driving ring component of the subsea wellhead connector as an example to demonstrate the reasonability of the proposed model. The generation data is processed by the transform between the numerical value and the state variable. Based on the stress-strength interference theory, the structure reliability of the driving ring with 96.26% is achieved by the proposed model with the consideration the aging of the material strength and the most influential factors are figured out. Meanwhile, the corresponding control measures are proposed effectively reduce the failure risk of the subsea wellhead connector during service life.     

Critical review for the quantification of leachate production: Evaluation example for the “Oum Azza” public landfill in Rabat city,Morocco

The estimation of leachate quantities produced in landfills is necessary to dimension the treatment plants allowing to reduce the polluting load of these effluents and consequently avoid their negative impacts on the environment. Different leachate quantification methods were used in this study to assess the leachate volume produced at the Oum Azza landfill. The water balance method give comparable estimations of leachate production to the Ouled Berjal landfill ratio. The first method showed average values between 487 and 495 m³/day for 2015, 2018, and 2019, and at the same time, the second method gave values between 470 and 477 m³/day for the same years. In contrast, the World Bank ratio showed high values that vary between 2260 and 2295 m³/day for 2015, 2018, and 2019. The on-site data and the statistical analysis showed us that the World Bank ratio is not adapted for the estimation of the leachates produced in Oum Azza landfill, while the water balance and the ratio of Ouled Berjal landfill allowed to give comparable results to reality.     

Mitochondrial toxicity and in vitro biological effects of ambient PM2.5 from an urban site in China

Abstract

The roles of PM_2.5-induced mitochondrial damage and oxidative stress on mast cell degranulation were examined in vitro. Mast cells were treated with suspensions of PM_2.5 in Dulbecco’s modified Eagle’s medium at concentrations from 25 to 200?mg/L in the absence or presence of 10?mmol/L N-acetyl-L-cysteine. Biological effects and mitochondrial function were assessed by determining cell viability, β-hexosaminidase release, interleukin-4 secretion, reactive oxygen species generation, adenosine triphosphate production, potential alteration of mitochondrial membrane, and activities of mitochondrial electron transport chain complexes I and III. Exposure of mast cells to PM_2.5 induced reduction of adenosine triphosphate production, collapse of mitochondrial membrane potential, and inhibition of the activity of complex III. Co-treatment of mast cells exposed to PM_2.5 with N-acetyl-L-cysteine attenuated cytotoxicity and the production of reactive oxygen species, and decreased the release of β-hexosaminidase and interleukin-4. Evidently, PM_2.5-induced oxidative stress plays an essential role in mitochondrial toxicity and mast cell activation.     

建筑安全风险因素分级排序的风险矩阵法

为减少风险分级排序时产生的风险结,在引入施工安全事故频率的基础上,采用单元格细化和Borda序值法改进原有的风险矩阵法。改进后的方法使得风险等级数量增加,风险结数量减少。将该方法应用于脚手架工程的风险因素的分级与排序,风险等级分为6级,且实现了12个因素的明确排序。     

《环境监测 分析方法标准制修订技术导则》(HJ 168—2010)对土壤环境监测标准制修订适用性探讨

针对土壤环境监测的复杂性和特殊性,从空白试验、检出限、方法验证、质量控制和标准文本等方面,指出了《环境监测分析方法标准制修订技术导则》《HJ 168—2010》对土壤环境监测标准制修订工作的适用性和执行中存在的问题。提出,为保证土壤标准制修订质量和标准执行质量,应研究适宜土壤监测方法标准的质量控制指标体系和评价体系,及时修订《HJ 168—2010》或发布补充要求;对现有土壤监测方法标准进行技术评估,加强对于土壤标准制修订工作的指导和监管。     

走滑断层作用下X80管道设计应变规律和神经网络预测

走滑断层是埋地管道常见的地质灾害威胁，断层作用下管道会发生较大的拉压应变而失效。为得到X80管道的设计应变，基于有限元方法建立了走滑断层作用下管道的应变响应数值计算模型，模型使用壳单元模拟管道，非线性弹簧单元模拟土壤约束，采用西二线实际工程的管道应变影响参数范围，计算了管道的设计应变；为预测管道的设计应变值，基于以上参数化分析得到的4 817组设计应变结果，采用人工神经网络建立了管道设计应变预测模型。结果表明:该神经网络模型预测结果的最大相对误差小于10%，预测准确性良好，且该方法具有较高的计算效率，可以为断层作用下埋地管道的应变设计与评估提供参考。     

Development and validation of LC-MS/MS method for the determination of Ochratoxin A and its metabolite Ochratoxin α in poultry tissues and eggs

The objective of this study was to develop a liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) method for the determination of Ochratoxin A (OTA) and Ochratoxin α (OTα) in poultry tissues and eggs. The two toxins were extracted by a mixture of acetonitrile/water, purified with a reversed phase C18 solid phase extraction column (SPE) and determined by LC-MS/MS. The LC-MS/MS method performances were evaluated in terms of linearity in solvent and in matrix (ranged from 0.5 to 15.10 µg L^?1 for OTA and from 0.60 to 17.85 µg L^?1 for OTα), limit of detection (LOD), limit of quantitation (LOQ), specificity, accuracy and precision in repeatability conditions. Recovery experiments were performed by spiking poultry liver, kidney, muscle and eggs around 1 µg kg^?1 and 10 µg kg^?1. LODs were 0.27 and 0.26 µg kg^?1 while LOQs were fixed at 1.0 and 1.2 µg kg^?1 for OTA and OTα, respectively. Main recoveries for OTA ranged from 82 to 109% and for OTα ranged from 55 to 89%. The values of within-laboratory relative standard deviation (RSD_r) were equal to or below 20%. Considering the results obtained and that all analytical performance criteria were fulfilled, the new extraction and purification method developed for OTA and OTα determination in animal tissues and eggs was found appropriate for control laboratories and research activities designed to ensure food safety.     

北京市城区挥发性有机物污染特征及其对臭氧影响分析

对2020年4月—2021年3月北京市建成区挥发性有机物（VOCs）的化学特征、污染来源及其对臭氧（O₃）污染的影响进行了研究。结果显示：O₃日最大8 h滑动平均值在臭氧季（4—9月）均值为134 μg/m³，是非臭氧季（10月至次年3月）均值（59.6 μg/m³）的2.2倍。臭氧季VOCs体积浓度均值为14.3×10^-9，明显低于非臭氧季（21.1×10^-9），可能与光化学反应速率和VOCs来源的季节性差异有关。臭氧生成潜势（OFP）贡献率排名前10位的物种在臭氧季和非臭氧季相似，均包括间/对-二甲苯、甲苯、乙烯、邻二甲苯、异戊烷、正丁烷、丙烯、反式-2-丁烯和1，2，4-三甲基苯，但排名有所差异，燃煤源特征明显的乙烯等物种在非臭氧季上升明显，与溶剂使用、油气挥发相关的间/对二甲苯、甲苯、异戊烷和正丁烷等物种在臭氧季上升明显。甲苯/苯的值和异戊烷/正戊烷的值在臭氧季明显高于非臭氧季，反映出机动车排放和油气挥发等在臭氧季影响突出，非臭氧季是燃煤影响显著。基于正交矩阵因子分解模型（PMF），臭氧季解析出机动车尾气排放（40.9%）、溶剂使用（20%）、油气挥发（16.4%）、工业排放（17.6%）和植物排放（5.1%）等5种污染源；非臭氧季解析出机动车尾气（38.9%）、燃烧源（26.3%）、工业排放（17.8%）和溶剂使用（17%）等4种污染源。     

CO2浓度升高对半干旱区春小麦光合作用及水分生理生态特性的影响

大气CO₂浓度升高已成为世界范围内重要环境问题。为了解大气CO₂浓度升高对春小麦光合作用及水分生理生态特性的影响,在典型半干旱区定西利用开顶式气室(OTC)试验平台,以春小麦“定西24号”为供试品种,开展了CO₂浓度增加模拟试验。试验设对照(390μmol·mol^?1)、480μmol·mol^?1和570μmol·mol^?1等3个CO₂浓度(摩尔分数)梯度。结果表明:在对照和增加CO₂浓度条件下,春小麦叶片净光合速率和蒸腾速率日变化均呈“双峰型”分布,出现明显的“午休”现象;胞间CO₂浓度的日变化表现为斜“V”字型曲线;叶水势日变化呈现反抛物线曲线走向,在中午后出现水势曲线拐点。在不同生育时期内,净光合速率、气孔导度和胞间CO₂浓度均表现为开花期最大,乳熟期最小。而蒸腾速率表现为开花期最大,拔节期最小,叶片水平水分利用效率表现为孕穗期最大,乳熟期最小。随着CO₂浓度升高,春小麦叶片净光合速率、胞间CO₂浓度、水分利用效率和水势提高,气孔导度和蒸腾速率降低。与对照大气CO₂浓度相比,在480μmol·mol^?1浓度和570μmol·mol^?1浓度下,整个生育期净光合速率平均分别提高了14.68%和28.20%,气孔导度平均降低了15.29%和24.83%,胞间CO₂浓度平均提高了10.38%和26.15%,蒸腾速率平均减小了6.63%和12.41%,WUE平均增加了22.9%和46.9%。随着CO₂浓度升高,蒸腾失水减少,叶片水势不断增加,从而增强了春小麦对干旱胁迫的抵御能力。研究结果为我国半干旱区春小麦对全球气候变化下的敏感性及适应性提供理论参考。     

氨气敏电极法和纳氏试剂分光光度法对地表水中氨氮的比对测试

采用不同质量浓度的氨氮标准样品和实际样品,用氨气敏电极法和纳氏试剂分光光度法进行同步测试。结果表明,2种分析方法在水样氨氮质量浓度在0. 159～2. 81 mg/L范围内具有良好的可比性、精密性和准确性。氨气敏电极法的检出限为0. 03 mg/L,平行6次测定样品的相对标准偏差为0. 4%～4. 2%,加标回收率为85. 0%～110%;纳氏试剂分光光度法的检出限为0. 025 mg/L,平行6次测定样品的相对标准偏差为0. 5%～6. 4%,加标回收率为93. 0%～99. 8%。同时氨气敏电极法在样品预处理、试剂配制和分析时间上要优于纳氏试剂分光光度法。氨气敏电极法能够满足地表水自动监测在线比对实际工作的需求,该方法具有良好的适用性。