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1.
Jacob A. Zwart Samantha K. Oliver William David Watkins Jeffrey M. Sadler Alison P. Appling Hayley R. Corson-Dosch Xiaowei Jia Vipin Kumar Jordan S. Read 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2023,59(2):317-337
Deep learning (DL) models are increasingly used to make accurate hindcasts of management-relevant variables, but they are less commonly used in forecasting applications. Data assimilation (DA) can be used for forecasts to leverage real-time observations, where the difference between model predictions and observations today is used to adjust the model to make better predictions tomorrow. In this use case, we developed a process-guided DL and DA approach to make 7-day probabilistic forecasts of daily maximum water temperature in the Delaware River Basin in support of water management decisions. Our modeling system produced forecasts of daily maximum water temperature with an average root mean squared error (RMSE) from 1.1 to 1.4°C for 1-day-ahead and 1.4 to 1.9°C for 7-day-ahead forecasts across all sites. The DA algorithm marginally improved forecast performance when compared with forecasts produced using the process-guided DL model alone (0%–14% lower RMSE with the DA algorithm). Across all sites and lead times, 65%–82% of observations were within 90% forecast confidence intervals, which allowed managers to anticipate probability of exceedances of ecologically relevant thresholds and aid in decisions about releasing reservoir water downstream. The flexibility of DL models shows promise for forecasting other important environmental variables and aid in decision-making. 相似文献
2.
Nicholas J. Georgiadis Joel E. Baker 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2023,59(5):970-983
In Pacific Northwest streams, summer low flows limit water available to competing instream (salmon) and out-of-stream (human) uses, creating broad interest in how and why low flows are trending. Analyses that assumed linear (monotonic) change over the last ~60 years revealed declining low flow trends in minimally disturbed streams. Here, polynomials were used to model flow trends between 1929 and 2015. A multidecadal oscillation was observed in flows, which increased initially from the 1930s until the 1950s, declined until the 1990s, and then increased again. A similar oscillation was detected in precipitation series, and opposing oscillations in surface temperature, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation series. Multidecadal oscillations with similar periods to those described here are well known in climate indices. Fitted model terms were consistent with flow trends being influenced by at least two drivers, one oscillating and the other monotonic. Anthropogenic warming is a candidate driver for the monotonic decline, and variation in (internal) climatic circulation for the oscillating trend, but others were not ruled out. The recent upturn in streamflows suggests that anthropogenic warming has not been the dominant factor driving streamflow trends, at least until 2015. Climate projections based on simulations that omit drivers of multidecadal variation are likely to underestimate the range, and rate of change, of future climatic variation. 相似文献
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1-Butyl-2,3-dimethylimidazolium nitrate ([Bmmim][NO3]), a kind of versatile and novel ionic liquids, is widely applied in the modern petrochemical industry. Nevertheless, its thermal hazard safety data at high temperature or thermal disturbance conditions are currently unavailable. Therefore, this study aimed to characterize the thermal risk of [Bmmim][NO3] through auto-ignition temperature measurements, flash point analysis, thermal gravimetric analysis/differential scanning calorimetry (TGA/DSC), TGA-Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (TGA-FTIR) and thermal decomposition kinetics analysis. Additionally, [Bmmim][NO3] was examined using isothermal thermogravimetric analysis at different temperatures (220, 230, 240, 250, 260 and 270 °C). The experimental results show that the flash point of [Bmmim][NO3] is 305.70 ± 9.30 °C and the auto-ignition temperature is 341.00 ± 21.60 °C with an ignition delay time of 8.6 s. In addition, using the nitrogen atmosphere TGA data to calculate the activation energy according to the Friedman, Kissinger and Flynn-Wall-Ozawa methods, roughly the same results were obtained. Finally, TGA-FTIR results show that [Bmmim][NO3] produced acetylene, butane, butanol and carbon dioxide during the thermal decomposition process. This study could provide data support and some guidance for the thermal hazard assessment and safety control of [Bmmim][NO3] during its use and storage. 相似文献
5.
为科学有效地论证多种方式组合的冷却屏蔽服在不同环境条件下对人体表面温度控制的效果,需要对冷却系统及人体敏感部位发热量进行客观评估。通过对5名健康男性的高温测试,探究人体在不同环境温度下体表温度的变化,得出胸部、背部及额头为热量最高部位,并构建以“人体-降温屏蔽服-外界环境”为主体的冷却系统数值模型,对不同环境中的屏蔽服冷却效果展开研究,分析穿戴冷却屏蔽服时人体躯干部分的温度分布及影响。结果表明:在屏蔽服中靠近胸部、背部部位引入相变材料和风扇,均可帮助人体降低体温,提高舒适度。 相似文献
6.
Lower flammability limit (LFL), upper flammability limit (UFL), auto-ignition temperature (AIT) and flash point (FP) are crucial hazardous properties for fire and explosion hazards assessment and consequence analysis. In this study, a comprehensive prediction model set was constructed by using expanded chemical mixture databases of chemical mixture hazardous properties. Machine learning based gradient boosting quantitative structure-property relationship (GB-QSPR) method is implemented for the first time to improve the model performance and prediction accuracy. The result shows that all developed models have significantly higher accuracy than other regular QSPR models, with the 5-fold cross-validation RMSE of LFL, UFL, AIT, and FP models being 1.06, 1.14, 1.08, and 1.17, respectively. All developed QSPR models can be used to estimate reliable chemical mixture hazardous properties and provide useful guidance in chemical mixture hazard assessment and consequence analysis. 相似文献
7.
实验测定了林西矿肥煤样品30~900℃煤自燃全过程热动力学特征参数,得出:TG/DTG曲线显示煤样DTG初始临界温度45℃,干裂温度122℃,活性温度195℃,增速温度265℃,质量极大值温度342℃,着火温度465℃,最大热失重速率温度515℃和燃尽温度690℃;DSC曲线显示,煤样初始放热温度60℃、最大热释放速率温度511℃。结合TG-DTG-DSC曲线综合分析可知,煤温达到510℃左右时煤样反应最剧烈。由煤自燃标志气体测定实验系统得出:煤温130℃后CO,CO 2释放量迅速增加,210℃增加速度下降;CH 4,C 2 H 6含量变化具有规律性且两者变化相近;C 2 H 4出现温度为130℃;C 2 H 4/C 2 H 6比值在190~350℃有较强的规律性,呈上升趋势且上升速度较快;350℃之后,CH 4,C 2 H 6,C 2 H 4体积分数均开始急剧增大;C 2 H 4/CO与C 2 H 4/CO 2变化趋势大致相同,在130~350℃时缓慢增长,达到350℃后比值呈指数形式上升。经拟合曲线,得到活化能的3个突变点温度:70,180,220℃,其中180℃与交叉点温度相吻合。通过以上研究,得到了肥煤自燃全过程的热力学特征参数,为实际生产中防治煤自燃提供了理论依据。 相似文献
8.
以Landsat 8遥感数据为数据源,进行天津市地表温度反演研究。首先采用单通道算法反演地表温度,并利用均值标准差法进行温度分级。然后建立不同温度等级面积比例的估算模型。再通过随机样点,从不同温度等级和土地覆盖类型2个角度,分别建立并比较不同类样点的地表温度与各指数的拟合模型。结果表明:次高温区域面积比例与人口密度、人均GDP都具有较高的决定系数;地表温度与NDVI、BAEM的二元线性回归决定系数高于地表温度与单一指数的决定系数;将样点分类后,低温点与MNDBI的决定系数高于其他温度等级样点,水域和植被样点与各种指数的决定系数高于其他地物类型样点。 相似文献
9.
基于隧道火灾不同横向火源位置的非对称卷吸影响,通过模拟计算分析了中心火源和偏置火源产生的烟气沿纵向最大温升变化规律,研究了顶棚下方近壁面区域内的不同温度分布,提出偏置火源纵向空间最大顶棚温升公式。结果表明:在壁面黏性作用下,沿纵向蔓延的烟气最高温度在顶棚下方呈现“温度边界层”分布;随着火源位置的偏移,下游出现偏置距离起主导作用影响温度衰减的区域,衰减速度相较于中心火源逐渐降低;火源下游近壁面最高温度位置逐渐远离顶棚后趋于稳定。研究结果对于排烟方式的设计以及空间通风效果的提升有着重要意义。 相似文献
10.
Chlorinated ethenes such as trichloroethene (TCE), cis‐1,2‐dichloroethene (cis‐1,2‐DCE), and vinyl chloride along with per‐ and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) have been identified as chemicals of concern in groundwater; with many of the compounds being confirmed as being carcinogens or suspected carcinogens. While there are a variety of demonstrated in‐situ technologies for the treatment of chlorinated ethenes, there are limited technologies available to treat PFAS in groundwater. At a former industrial site shallow groundwater was impacted with TCE, cis‐1,2‐DCE, and vinyl chloride at concentrations up to 985, 258, and 54 µg/L, respectively. The groundwater also contained maximum concentrations of the following PFAS: 12,800 ng/L of perfluoropentanoic acid, 3,240 ng/L of perfluorohexanoic acid, 795 ng/L of perfluorobutanoic acid, 950 ng/L of perfluorooctanoic acid, and 2,140 ng/L of perfluorooctanesulfonic acid. Using a combination of adsorption, biotic, and abiotic degradation in situ remedial approaches, the chemicals of concern were targeted for removal from the groundwater with adsorption being utilized for PFAS whereas adsorption, chemical reduction, and anaerobic biodegradation were used for the chlorinated ethenes. Sampling of the groundwater over a 24‐month period indicated that the detected PFAS were treated to either their detection, or below the analytical detection limit over the monitoring period. Postinjection results for TCE, cis‐1,2‐DCE, and vinyl chloride indicated that the concentrations of the three compounds decreased by an order of magnitude within 4 months of injection, with TCE decreasing to below the analytical detection limit over the 24‐month monitoring period. Cis‐1,2‐DCE, and vinyl chloride concentrations decreased by over 99% within 8 months of injections, remaining at or below these concentrations during the 24‐month monitoring period. Analyses of Dehalococcoides, ethene, and acetylene over time suggest that microbiological and reductive dechlorination were occurring in conjunction with adsorption to attenuate the chlorinated ethenes and PFAS within the aquifer. Analysis of soil cores collected pre‐ and post‐injection, indicated that the distribution of the colloidal activated carbon was influenced by small scale heterogeneities within the aquifer. However, all aquifer samples collected within the targeted injection zone contained total organic carbon at concentrations at least one order of magnitude greater than the preinjection total organic carbon concentrations. 相似文献