简述排污许可制下火电行业现状及发展

实施排污许可制度,是强化排污者责任、提高固定污染源环境管理效能、改善环境质量的重要制度保障。火电行业作为典型的高架固定源,先行试点实施排污许可制度。通过分析火电行业发展和环保现状,结合排污许可管理要点,简述排污许可制对火电行业发展的影响。     

非平衡式双极性离子风消电技术与应用

为实现风送管道物料静电监测与控制，预防料仓静电燃爆事故，提高聚烯烃装置料仓安全水平，基于非平衡式双极性离子风消电技术，开发了双极性离子风消电器；基于离子风消电器和静电监测器，探讨了石化粉体料仓用离子风消电控制系统组成、电路、气路布局；对非平衡式双极性离子风消电系统进行现场应用测试。结果表明:基于此管道粉体消静电技术，合理调节正、负侧控制电压，可有效控制管道物料荷质比稳定在±0.3 μC/kg以内，保障聚烯烃装置料仓安全、稳定运行。     

Quantifying progress toward a conservation assessment for all plants

The Global Strategy for Plant Conservation (GSPC) set an ambitious target to achieve a conservation assessment for all known plant species by 2020. We consolidated digitally available plant conservation assessments and reconciled their scientific names and assessment status to predefined standards to provide a quantitative measure of progress toward this target. The 241,919 plant conservation assessments generated represent 111,824 accepted land plant species (vascular plants and bryophytes, not algae). At least 73,081 and up to 90,321 species have been assessed at the global scale, representing 21–26% of known plant species. Of these plant species, at least 27,148 and up to 32,542 are threatened. Eighty plant families, including some of the largest, such as Asteraceae, Orchidaceae, and Rubiaceae, are underassessed and should be the focus of assessment effort if the GSPC target is to be met by 2020. Our data set is accessible online (ThreatSearch) and is a baseline that can be used to directly support other GSPC targets and plant conservation action. Although around one‐quarter of a million plant assessments have been compiled, the majority of plants are still unassessed. The challenge now is to build on this progress and redouble efforts to document conservation status of unassessed plants to better inform conservation decisions and conserve the most threatened species.     

“T”型地铁换乘站多点火灾工况下综合火灾危险性研究

为探究大型地铁站多线路火灾场景中的综合危险性，采用火灾动力学软件FDS构建“T”型换乘站全尺寸模型，对不同火源位置、不同火源功率以及是否开启地铁排烟风机等12组工况进行数值模拟；采用性能化方法确定可用疏散时间，并通过综合火灾风险评估方法计算各工况总安全指数。结果表明:1号线站厅层和2号线站台层双点火灾为最不利火灾场景；1号线站台层和2号线站厅层双点火灾为相对安全火灾场景；火源功率的增大会增加地铁火灾危险性，但不同火源位置工况中的安全指数变化趋势相似；排烟模式开启前，1号线站厅层火灾会导致较大的火灾危险性；排烟模式开启后，地铁总安全指数显著上升且安全指数变化趋势改变，此时2号线站台层火灾会导致较大的火灾危险性。     

A hybrid decision-making approach based on FCM and MOORA for occupational health and safety risk analysis

IntroductionWith the development of industries and increased diversity of their associated hazards, the importance of identifying these hazards and controlling the Occupational Health and Safety (OHS) risks has also dramatically augmented. Currently, there is a serious need for a risk management system to identify and prioritize risks with the aim of providing corrective/preventive measures to minimize the negative consequences of OHS risks. In fact, this system can help the protection of employees’ health and reduction of organizational costs. Method: The present study proposes a hybrid decision-making approach based on the Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA), Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM), and Multi-Objective Optimization on the basis of Ratio Analysis (MOORA) for assessing and prioritizing OHS risks. After identifying the risks and determining the values of the risk assessment criteria via the FMEA technique, the attempt is made to determine the weights of criteria based on their causal relationships through FCM and the hybrid learning algorithm. Then, the risk prioritization is carried out using the MOORA method based on the decision matrix (the output of the FMEA) and the weights of the criteria (the output of the FCM). Results: The results from the implementation of the proposed approach in a manufacturing company reveal that the score at issue can overcome some of the drawbacks of the traditional Risk Priority Number (RPN) in the conventional FMEA, including lack of assignment the different relative importance to the assessment criteria, inability to take into account other important management criteria, lack of consideration of causal relationships among criteria, and high dependence of the prioritization on the experts’ opinions, which finally provides a full and distinct risk prioritization.     

土压平衡矩形顶管施工引起的地表沉降规律研究

为了分析与掌握矩形顶管施工引起的地表沉降变形规律，提出基于MIDAS-GTS有限元软件的分析方法，首先，通过工程实例验证MIDAS-GTS有限元软件在分析顶管施工引起地表沉降变形的有效性；其次，通过影响因素的敏感性分析确定不同影响因素作用下的地表沉降变形特性，这些影响因素主要包括开挖面支护压力、侧摩阻力、地层结构特性等；最后，通过地表沉降变形特性分析得出矩形顶管的适用范围。研究结果表明:基于MIDAS-GTS有限元软件的地表沉降规律分析方法和结果，可为矩形顶管施工过程提供相关参考和借鉴。     

Complex and nonlinear climate-driven changes in freshwater insect communities over 42 years

The ongoing biodiversity crisis becomes evident in the widely observed decline in abundance and diversity of species, profound changes in community structure, and shifts in species’ phenology. Insects are among the most affected groups, with documented decreases in abundance up to 76% in the last 25–30 years in some terrestrial ecosystems. Identifying the underlying drivers is a major obstacle as most ecosystems are affected by multiple stressors simultaneously and in situ measurements of environmental variables are often missing. In our study, we investigated a headwater stream belonging to the most common stream type in Germany located in a nature reserve with no major anthropogenic impacts except climate change. We used the most comprehensive quantitative long-term data set on aquatic insects available, which includes weekly measurements of species-level insect abundance, daily water temperature and stream discharge as well as measurements of additional physicochemical variables for a 42-year period (1969–2010). Overall, water temperature increased by 1.88 °C and discharge patterns changed significantly. These changes were accompanied by an 81.6% decline in insect abundance, but an increase in richness (+8.5%), Shannon diversity (+22.7%), evenness (+22.4%), and interannual turnover (+34%). Moreover, the community's trophic structure and phenology changed: the duration of emergence increased by 15.2 days, whereas the peak of emergence moved 13.4 days earlier. Additionally, we observed short-term fluctuations (<5 years) in almost all metrics as well as complex and nonlinear responses of the community toward climate change that would have been missed by simply using snapshot data or shorter time series. Our results indicate that climate change has already altered biotic communities severely even in protected areas, where no other interacting stressors (pollution, habitat fragmentation, etc.) are present. This is a striking example of the scientific value of comprehensive long-term data in capturing the complex responses of communities toward climate change.     

基于社会技术系统的复工企业疫情防控风险路径研究*

为对复工企业疫情防控中的风险致因因素进行分析，探寻复工企业疫情防控的风险路径，基于社会技术系统理论，建立宏观工效学模型，通过查阅并分析国家、地方政府、企业文件以及相关文献，从人员、技术、组织管理、内部环境及外部环境5个子系统出发，识别出16个复工企业疫情失控致因因素；运用社会网络分析（SNA）构建复工企业疫情防控关系网络，对各因素节点中心度进行计算，分析各节点在网络中的位置及影响程度；采用贝叶斯网络（BN）进行参数学习和推理学习，找出复工企业疫情失控的最大致因链。结果表明:复工企业疫情失控关系网络中，存在政府监督管理不力→防疫物资筹备不足→日常监管不到位，政府监督管理不力→ 防疫宣传、培训缺失→员工防疫知识欠缺，政府监督管理不力→防疫宣传、培训缺失→日常监管不到位3条最长风险路径。研究结果可帮助复工企业针对最长风险路径中的因素进行管理，从而有效地为复工企业防疫提供理论支持。     

太阳模拟器大功率短弧氙灯放电特性试验测试

目的增强太阳模拟器氙灯驱动运行的可靠性,给太阳模拟器研制提供技术保障,针对太阳模拟器大功率短弧氙灯放电特性进行试验研究。方法设计太阳模拟器的大功率短弧氙灯放电特性测试方法,然后通过理论计算和实际测试验证氙灯电源初始电流对短弧氙灯放电特性的影响,并采用增设优化电路的方法对其放电特性进行改善。结果在初始电流为70 A和120 A两种情况下,弧光放电电流到达谷值以后的电流稳定度分别为1.8616和0.9867,增设优化电路后,再次进行短弧氙灯放电特性测量,将初始电流降低到60 A,而稳定度可达到0.5409。结论改善后的电路基本可实现短弧氙灯放电理想状态,完成了对短弧氙灯进入电流击穿阶段后形成的稳定弧光放电电流特性的优化,大大提升了氙灯点灯成功率,为增强太阳模拟器可靠性提供了试验支持。     

排污权交易之排放跟踪数据校核研究

本文以排污权交易的核心业务排放跟踪管理为出发点,选择电厂二氧化硫指标进行排放跟踪数据过程校核体系研究,探索进一步提高排污权交易体系中排放数据准确性的机制。