江苏省水质全要素代表性监测体系的设计

为了评价并进行城市水环境质量考核排名,介绍了江苏省组织开展涵盖地表水、饮用水、地下水、近岸海域和城市内河5种类型"全要素、代表性"水质监测断面(点位)体系建设工作的情况以及全要素断面设置的基本原则和做法。分苏南、苏北、苏中3个区域,对全省地表水监测代表性进行了量化计算,结果表明,调整后全省水质综合指数极差从41.07降至7.17,标准差从3.16降为0.49;采用德尔斐层次分析法分析,设计了水质代表性指数,含1项一级指标、5项二级指标、12项三级指标,计算表明,调整前全省水质代表性指数得分为69.1分,调整后为88.7分。将调整结果进行论证后再与各市环保主管部门交换意见,取得最终一致后正式实施。     

API Standard 521 new alternative method to evaluate fire relief for pressure relief device sizing and depressuring system design

Since the 1950's, API Standards have provided guidance on determining relief loads for equipment exposed to pool fires. The API method is empirical based on tests performed in the 1940's. There is increasingly widespread interest in analytical methods based on heat transfer principles to model fire heat input. The API committee agreed to include an analytical method in the 6th edition of API Standard 521 to establish relief loads for pressure relief devices and to design depressuring systems for the fire scenario. The analytical method provides more flexibility than the empirical method but has limitations (e.g., too many permutations are possible leading to potential under-sizing of the pressure relief device).This paper discusses the basis for the empirical method in API Standard 521 and provides comparisons of the empirical and analytical method with two more recent large-scale pool fire tests. This pool fire test data indicates that the empirical method will provide a conservative estimate of pool fire heat input for most applications and is still the method of choice when designing pressure relief systems. However, these recent tests indicate the empirical method needs to be modified when a vessel or equipment is partially confined by adjacent embankments or walls equal or greater than the vessel height. In such cases, the wetted area exponent should be 1.0 instead of 0.82.The analytical method is useful in determining time-versus-temperature profiles for heating unwetted vessels of varying wall thicknesses and materials of construction. These profiles, which depend upon the type of fire (e.g., unconfined pool fire, jet fire, etc.), can be combined with tensile strength and stress-rupture data to specify a depressuring system's pressure-versus-time profile. This will minimize failure and/or mitigate the effects of failure due to overheating from fire exposure.     

Seismic risk assessment of storage tanks in Turkish industrial facilities

In 1999, two earthquakes in northwest Turkey caused heavy damage to a large number of industrial facilities. This region is the most industrialized in the country, and heavy damage has a significant economic influence. Industrial storage tanks, ruptured by earthquakes, exascerbate damage through the spread of fire. Storage tanks are uniquely structured, tall cylindrical vessels, some supported by relatively short reinforced concrete columns. The main aim of this study is to evaluate the earthquake performance of Turkish industrial facilities, especially storage tanks in terms of earthquake resistance. Modeling a typical storage tank of an industrial facility helps to understand the structure’s seismic response. A model tank structure was modelled as a solid with lumped mass and spring systems. Performance estimation was done with 40 different earthquake data through nonlinear time history analyses. After the time history analyses, fragility analyses produced probabilistic seismic assessment for the tank model. For the model structure, analysis results were evaluated and compared. In the study, vulnerability of storage tanks in Turkey was determined and the probabilistic risk was defined with the results of the analysis.     

紫外消毒对城市污水处理厂耐药菌去除的影响研究

通过选取假单胞杆菌、鲍曼不动杆菌以及芽孢杆菌3种耐药菌作为研究对象,研究紫外光变化对这3种耐药菌的去除效果,得出较好的紫外消毒条件,应用到实际的污水处理厂消毒过程中。结果表明,紫外消毒对3种耐药菌都有很好的灭活效果。     

Analysis of the global warming dynamics from temperature time series

Global warming is the observed increase of the average temperature of the Earth. The primary cause of this phenomenon is the release of the greenhouse gases by burning of fossil fuels, land cleaning, agriculture, among others, leading to the increase of the so-called greenhouse effect. An approach to deal with this important problem is the time series analysis. In this regard, different techniques can be applied to evaluate the global warming dynamics. This kind of analysis allows one to make better predictions increasing our comprehension of the phenomenon. This article applies nonlinear tools to analyze temperature time series establishing state space reconstruction and prediction. Since noise contamination is unavoidable in data acquisition, it is important to employ robust techniques. The method of delay coordinates is employed for state space reconstruction and delay parameters are evaluated using the method of average mutual information and the method of false nearest neighbors. Afterwards, the simple nonlinear prediction method is employed to estimate temperatures of the future. Temperature time series from different places of the planet are used. Initially, the approach is verified considering known parts of the time series and afterwards, results are extrapolated for future values estimating temperature until 2028. Results show that these techniques are interesting to estimate temperature time history, presenting coherent estimations.     

Species-specific and context-dependant disruption of temporal population fluctuations resulting from hypereutrophication events

This study quantifies the disruption of zooplankton population fluctuations in relation to two magnitudes of fire retardant contamination events using artificial ponds as model systems. Population time series were analysed using redundancy analysis where time was modelled with a principal coordinate of neighborhood matrices approach that identified relevant scales of fluctuation frequencies. Analyses of temporal coherence provided insight whether population fluctuations correlated with system intrinsic or extrinsic forces. Responses to stress were species-specific and context-dependant. Contamination changed temporal structure in some species. These alterations were associated with an increased intrinsic control of dynamics. In some cases the magnitude of impact was unrelated to contamination severity. Some populations were less tolerant of pollution in the low relative to the high concentration treatment. Results suggest that population-level monitoring of degraded sites may be suboptimal because disparate population responses complicate the selection of specific sentinel organisms to monitor stress.     

大气环境数据分析预测方法对比研究

以西安市2006年9月27日至2008年5月3日每日的SO2平均浓度时间序列为例,应用时间序列分析对前555个数据进行拟合,得到合适的时间序列模型ARIMA(1,1,2);利用神经网络中的BP神经网络和RBF神经网络对同样的样本进行训练,用这三种方法对2008年4月4日至2008年5月3日的SO2日均浓度值进行了预测,并用同样的方法分析预测了同期PM10日均浓度值,最后比较了它们的预测效果。结果表明,利用这三种方法进行浓度预测都是可行的,其中RBF神经网络法的预测误差最小,效果最好。     

Forecasting the outbreak of moorland wildfires in the English Peak District

Warmer, drier summers brought by climate change increase the potential risk of wildfires on the moorland of the Peak District of northern England. Fires are costly to fight, damage the ecosystem, harm water catchments, cause erosion scars and disrupt transport. Fires release carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Accurate forecasts of the timing of fires help deployment of fire fighting resources.     

邀山阁游客流量控制研究

邀山阁是一座4层砖石结构楼阁,目前西北角墙体倾斜严重且墙体、石柱存在竖向裂缝。基于保护邀山阁的需要,应用等效体积单元(RVE)进行墙体的有限元分析,通过调整弹性模量和优化有限元模型来模拟砌体带裂缝时的工作状态;在应力值及其变化值比较大的关键部位选取了26个控制点,进行应力包络分析;在合理的安全系数和游客荷载最不利工况下,得到了邀山阁游客的合理控制数量。本研究将有益于古建筑的长期保护和合理开发利用。