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1.
This paper examines how local communities adapt to climate change and how governance structures can foster or undermine adaptive capacity. Climate change policies, in general, and disaster risk management in mountain regions, in particular, are characterised by their multi-level and multi-sectoral nature during formulation and implementation. The involvement of numerous state and non-state actors at local to national levels produces a variety of networks of interaction and communication. The paper argues that the structure of these relational patterns is critical for understanding adaptive capacity. It thus proposes an expanded concept of adaptive capacity that incorporates (horizontal and vertical) actor integration and communication flow between these actors. The paper further advocates the use of formal social network analysis to assess these relational patterns. Preliminary results from research on adaptation to climate change in a Swiss mountain region vulnerable to floods and other natural hazards illustrate the conceptual and empirical significance of the main arguments.  相似文献   
2.
This paper presents a novel quantitative risk analysis process for urban natural gas pipeline networks using geographical information systems (GIS). The process incorporates an assessment of failure rates of integrated pipeline networks, a quantitative analysis model of accident consequences, and assessments of individual and societal risks. Firstly, the failure rates of the pipeline network are calculated using empirical formulas influenced by parameters such as external interference, corrosion, construction defects, and ground movements. Secondly, the impacts of accidents due to gas leakage, diffusion, fires, and explosions are analyzed by calculating the area influenced by poisoning, burns, and deaths. Lastly, based on the previous analyses, individual risks and social risks are calculated. The application of GIS technology helps strengthen the quantitative risk analysis (QRA) model and allows construction of a QRA system for urban gas pipeline networks that can aid pipeline management staff in demarcating high risk areas requiring more frequent inspections.  相似文献   
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长期覆膜条件下农田土壤微生物群落的响应特征   总被引:8,自引:6,他引:2  
地膜覆盖是农业生产中保障粮食增产增收的重要措施.为明确长期地膜覆盖对农田土壤微生物群落结构特征的影响,采集4个不同覆膜年限的农田土壤,利用高通量测序技术分析土壤细菌和真菌群落结构变化,探讨长期覆膜农田土壤中微生物群落的变化及其对微生物生态环境效应的影响.结果表明,长期覆膜对土壤细菌多样性无显著影响,但降低真菌多样性;长期覆膜使土壤细菌酸杆菌(Acidobacteriota)和真菌被孢霉菌(Mortierellomycetes)物种丰度降低,增加土壤放线菌(Actinobacteriota)物种丰度.长期覆膜可以使土壤富集细菌中的芽孢杆菌(Bacillus)和类诺卡氏菌(Nocardioidaceae),及真菌中的肉座菌目(Hypocreales)和曲霉菌(Aspergillus)等有益微生物菌群.然而长期覆膜使土壤真菌共生网络变得简单而脆弱,其关键物种仅有子囊菌门中的粪壳菌目(Sordariales)中的未知菌属一种,因此对农田土壤生态环境带来潜在风险.本研究为深化了解长期覆膜对农田微生物生态环境效应的影响提供理论依据.  相似文献   
5.
精准识别返贫脆弱性,预防和化解返贫风险是“后扶贫时代”的工作重点。基于区域与个体尺度融合的新视角,运用BP神经网络法、熵值法和偏相关分析法对六盘山、秦巴山和大别山三大集中连片特困区进行返贫脆弱性评价与影响因素分析。研究发现:(1)三大集中连片特困区返贫脆弱度大致呈现由西向东递减的空间格局;(2)三个典型县区域和个体返贫脆弱性评价结果均显示古浪县>新县>栾川县;(3)高返贫风险县域中,高生态暴露度特征最为显著,而高返贫风险家庭中,生计动力不足特征最为明显;(4)区域返贫脆弱性主导因子为自然环境禀赋和经济发展水平,个体返贫脆弱性主导因子则为家庭劳动力综合素质、家庭收入、生计来源多样性、家庭成员健康状况和婚姻成本等。  相似文献   
6.
Soil aggregation plays an important role in agricultural production activities. However, the structure of soil aggregation is destroyed by the natural environment and unreasonable farming management, resulting in the loss of water, fertilizers and pesticides in soil. At present, hydrogels have been widely reported to promote the formation of soil aggregation. In this paper, amphiphilic calcium alginate (ASA/Ca2+) was applied to promote the formation of soil aggregation and enhance pesticide retention. Initially, an ASA was obtained through the one-pot Ugi condensation (a four-component green chemical reaction). Then, ASA/Ca2+ hydrogel is prepared by Ca2+ cross-linking. The formation of soil aggregation was determined through the Turbiscan Lab Expert stability analyzer, Confocal Laser Scanning Microscope (CLSM), and Transmission Electron Microscope (TEM). And the effect of soil aggregation on acetamiprid environmental behavior was investigated by adsorption kinetics, adsorption isotherms, and leaching. The results shown that the three-dimensional network structure of ASA/Ca2+ hydrogel can promote the formation of soil aggregation. Aggregate durability index (ADI) was 0.55 in the presence of ASA/Ca2+ hydrogel, indicating that amphiphilic hydrogel can enhance the stability of soil aggregation. The adsorbing capacity of acetamiprid was 1.58 times higher than pure soil, and the release of acetamiprid only about 20% in the presence of ASA/Ca2+ hydrogel. These results would be helpful for the formation of soil aggregation and pesticides adsorption on soil aggregation. Thus, ASA/Ca2+ hydrogel is likely to improve soil quality, simultaneously it can minimize the mobility of pesticides in the agricultural system.  相似文献   
7.
Endemic fluorosis exists in almost all provinces of China. The long-term ingestion of groundwater containing high concentrations of fluoride is one of the main causes of fluorosis. We used artificial neural network to model the relationship between groundwater fluoride concentrations from throughout China and environmental variables such as climatic, geological. and soil parameters as proxy predictors. The results show that the accuracy and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the model in the test dataset are 80.5% and 0.86%, respectively, and climatic variables are the most effective predictors. Based on the artificial neural network model, a nationwide prediction risk map of fluoride concentrations exceeding 1.5 mg/L with a 0.5 × 0.5 arc minutes resolution was generated. The high risk areas are mainly located in western provinces of Xinjiang, Tibet, Qinghai, and Sichuan, and the northern provinces of Inner Mongolia, Hebei and Shandong. The total number of people estimated to be potentially at risk of fluorosis due to the use of untreated high fluoride groundwater as drinking water is about 89 million, or 6% of the population. The high fluoride groundwater risk map helps the authorities to prioritize areas requiring mitigation measures and thus facilitates the implementation of water improvement and defluoridation projects.  相似文献   
8.
针对目前基于节点压力变化定位供水管网爆管的方法,当供水管网中泵切换时,导致定位爆管位置存在误报的问题,提出了基于节点流量校核的管网爆管定位方法。利用奇异矩阵法推导出节点流量灵敏度矩阵,采取奇异矩阵中的最优搜索向量计算方法找到节点流量变化位置,确定爆管管道。首先,将该方法应用于一个小管网,阐述基于节点流量校核的管网爆管定位的基本原理。然后,将该方法应用于复杂管网,通过该管网来说明所提出方法的可适性。结果表明,所提出的方法能够更准确、更快速的定位管网中的爆管位。  相似文献   
9.
A novel differential pulse voltammetry method (DPV) was researched and developed for the simultaneous determination of Pendimethalin, Dinoseb and sodium 5-nitroguaiacolate (5NG) with the aid of chemometrics. The voltammograms of these three compounds overlapped significantly, and to facilitate the simultaneous determination of the three analytes, chemometrics methods were applied. These included classical least squares (CLS), principal component regression (PCR), partial least squares (PLS) and radial basis function-artificial neural networks (RBF-ANN). A separately prepared verification data set was used to confirm the calibrations, which were built from the original and first derivative data matrices of the voltammograms. On the basis relative prediction errors and recoveries of the analytes, the RBF-ANN and the DPLS (D – first derivative spectra) models performed best and are particularly recommended for application. The DPLS calibration model was applied satisfactorily for the prediction of the three analytes from market vegetables and lake water samples.  相似文献   
10.
The wildlife trade is a lucrative industry involving thousands of animal and plant species. The increasing use of the internet for both legal and illegal wildlife trade is well documented, but there is evidence that trade may be emerging on new online technologies such as social media. Using the orchid trade as a case study, we conducted the first systematic survey of wildlife trade on an international social‐media website. We focused on themed forums (groups), where people with similar interests can interact by uploading images or text (posts) that are visible to other group members. We used social‐network analysis to examine the ties between 150 of these orchid‐themed groups to determine the structure of the network. We found 4 communities of closely linked groups based around shared language. Most trade occurred in a community that consisted of English‐speaking and Southeast Asian groups. In addition to the network analysis, we randomly sampled 30 groups from the whole network to assess the prevalence of trade in cultivated and wild plants. Of 55,805 posts recorded over 12 weeks, 8.9% contained plants for sale, and 22–46% of these posts pertained to wild‐collected orchids. Although total numbers of posts about trade were relatively small, the large proportion of posts advertising wild orchids for sale supports calls for better monitoring of social media for trade in wild‐collected plants.  相似文献   
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