南京市典型地区大气多环芳烃污染特征及健康风险评价

采用气相色谱-质谱法,于2016年9月和12月对南京市2个典型地区大气中16种多环芳烃(PAHs)的质量浓度进行分析,并开展了PAHs组成特征、来源解析及人体健康风险评价研究。结果表明,工业区(六合区)和生活区(江宁区)大气(气态和可吸入颗粒态)中16种PAHs的质量浓度分别为914.82和712.27 ng/m~3,苯并[a]芘毒性等效浓度分别为274.1和309.84 ng/m~3,且呈现冬季高、秋季低的特征。比值法源解析结果表明,燃煤污染是六合区PAHs污染主要来源,而江宁区主要表现为交通污染。人体健康风险评价结果表明,六合区和江宁区人群通过大气吸入PAHs的超额致癌风险分别为5.17×10~(-5)和5.85×10~(-5),均略高于可接受水平10~(-6)。     

基于多时相遥感数据的典型区生态格局变化分析

利用1985、2000、2013年遥感影像提取的土地覆盖数据,通过景观格局指数、动态度计算、转移矩阵等,分析1985—2013年我国典型地区各类型生态系统景观格局及其动态变化特征、生态系统相互转化时空变化特征等,揭示1985—2013年生态环境格局变化的特点和规律:一级分类生态系统综合变化率,赣江、闽江、白龙江和岷江上游流域分别为4.7%、3.9%、3.3%和1.7%,生态系统变化强度1985—2000年较缓,2000—2013年更剧烈。1985—2013年典型区生态系统的主要转化方向具有持续性和双向性特征,岷江、白龙江和赣江上游流域退耕还林还草政策效果明显,出现较高比例的耕地转为森林和草地;面积占67.4%生态系统类型变化与耕地生态系统和人工表面生态系统变化有关;生态系统变化具有明显的区域差异,生态变化主要表现为沿主要河流谷地的线状延伸,主要城镇居民点附近生态系统类型变化较为突出,人类活动是典型地区生态系统类型格局变化的主要驱动力;典型区尤其是敏感区应加大退耕还林还草政策,减少人类经济活动,降低洪水泥石流灾害发生的概率和程度。     

海洋风电场水下噪声评估与管理研究

总结了海洋风电场建设中水下噪声的主要类型与声学特性,基于国内外水下噪声对海洋生物影响的最新研究成果,分析了海洋风电场噪声对生态环境的可能影响,尤其是近岸海域海洋风电施工期冲击式打桩噪声对海洋生物的影响。在此基础上,参考《海上风电工程环境影响评价技术规范》的相关内容,提出了海洋风电场水下噪声测量与评估方法,以及控制与降低噪声的措施建议。     

Environmental life cycle assessment of different types of the municipal wastewater pipeline network

With the onset of social life, humans have considered waste disposal as essential, and they have been able to repel it through brick and clay channels. Checking sewage pipes for energy consumption and a longer lifetime than other sewage system components is important. Climate change and exploitation of industrial resources have made environmental impacts, which are important factors in decision making. The purpose of this study was to introduce the most suitable type of sewage pipe considering environmental protection. Therefore, we applied the environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) method, using Sima Pro 8.2.3 software for the one-kilometer length of concrete pipes (300 mm in diameter), Polyvinyl chloride (PVC), and polyethylene (PE) (315 mm in diameter). Also, the BEES method and sensitivity analysis were used to validate the results. The comparison between three types of municipal wastewater pipes indicated that PE pipes are a more environmentally friendly option than PVC, and concrete pipes in pipe recycling, reducing extraction from untapped resources, and inefficient extraction of resources. Electricity, diesel fuel, and sulfate resistance cement consumption for concrete production are the most pollution elements in the LCA of concrete pipes. Usage of PVC granular, sanitary landfill of PVC pipes, and using hydraulic drill in LCA of PVC pipes are the most elements of generating pollution. The usage of PE granules, PE pipes landfilling, hydraulic excavator, and electricity consumption in the LCA of the PE pipes are the greatest polluting parameters.     

面向管理的海洋修复工程生态绩效考核指标体系构建研究

目前国内关于海洋修复工程的考核研究多为修复工程的生态效果考核,极少包含成本效益考核,以致无法比较和分析不同类型、不同规模的海洋修复工程的生态绩效,不利于海洋修复工程的考核和验收管理。根据当前自然资源部实施“蓝色海湾”等整治修复工程的检查验收管理的新需求,本文构建了基于海洋生态系统健康恢复、生态系统服务价值增长和单位成本生态效益等理论的海洋修复工程生态绩效考核指标体系。此外,本文以温州海域2014—2016年海洋修复的生态绩效的考核为例,结合考核结果以及直接相关性、独立性、可测量性和业务化等指标选取原则,对指标体系进行了改进。结果表明本指标体系可以在海洋修复工程的检查验收中被用于生态绩效考核,管理部门可根据海洋修复工程的类型和管理需求,有选择性地采纳部分或全部指标进行考核。     

Developing shared qualitative models for complex systems

Understanding complex systems is essential to ensure their conservation and effective management. Models commonly support understanding of complex ecological systems and, by extension, their conservation. Modeling, however, is largely a social process constrained by individuals’ mental models (i.e., a small-scale internal model of how a part of the world works based on knowledge, experience, values, beliefs, and assumptions) and system complexity. To account for both system complexity and the diversity of knowledge of complex systems, we devised a novel way to develop a shared qualitative complex system model. We disaggregated a system (carbonate coral reefs) into smaller subsystem modules that each represented a functioning unit, about which an individual is likely to have more comprehensive knowledge. This modular approach allowed us to elicit an individual mental model of a defined subsystem for which the individuals had a higher level of confidence in their knowledge of the relationships between variables. The challenge then was to bring these subsystem models together to form a complete, shared model of the entire system, which we attempted through 4 phases: develop the system framework and subsystem modules; develop the individual mental model elicitation methods; elicit the mental models; and identify and isolate differences for exploration and identify similarities to cocreate a shared qualitative model. The shared qualitative model provides opportunities to develop a quantitative model to understand and predict complex system change.     

基于地理探测器的土壤重金属影响因子分析及其污染风险评价

地理探测器能快速定量化揭示驱动重金属含量影响因素的强度,这对于重金属空间预测模型构建变量的确定和土壤污染修复措施的精准实施具有重要意义。利用地理探测器模型,对5种土壤重金属元素Cu、Zn、Pb、Cr、Ni的空间分布和11种环境因子的交互作用进行定量评估,通过单因子指数法进行重庆市土壤重金属污染风险评价。结果表明:研究区内土壤Cu、Zn、Cr和Pb的平均含量是重庆市土壤背景值的1.3—1.4倍,Ni含量低于背景值;其中Cu、Pb达到重度污染水平,其余3种重金属为中度或轻度污染水平。5种重金属元素中Cu和Pb为高度变异(变异系数为0.57、0.4),Zn、Cr和Ni为中等变异(变异系数为0.22—0.29),且各重金属元素之间呈显著正相关性,表明研究区重金属富集受人为干扰影响较大,且污染具有复合性或同源性。地理探测器的因子探测发现高程、坡度和土壤类型对5种土壤重金属含量的解释力最显著,说明地势和土壤类型是土壤重金属含量分布差异的最主要影响因素。交互作用探测发现,高程与其他因子交互作用是重金属空间分异的主导因素,气候条件和土壤类型也是重要影响因子。土壤重金属空间分布是多种因素共同作用的结果,而高程、坡度和土壤类型具有较强的解释力,这些因子可作为土壤重金属含量空间预测模型的辅助变量,也可促进重金属污染治理措施的靶向实施。     

A proactive process risk assessment approach based on job hazard analysis and resilient engineering

Complex systems often experience a long period of incubation before accidents occur. Therefore, a proactive risk assessment is essential for process safety. The conventional job hazard analysis (JHA) method has been an effective tool to conduct a process risk assessment in the high-risk industrial field. However, the conventional JHA is inadequate for the proactive risk assessment since it is usually conducted during and before one specific operation process. Operations such as startup and maintenance are performed repeatedly on the lifecycle of a plant. Therefore, the risk reduction measures for the industrial process should include not only preventive actions obtained from the conventional JHA but also recovery ones. Resilience engineering (RE) has proven to be helpful for the recovery analysis of a complex system. The objective of this paper is to propose a proactive and comprehensive process risk assessment approach based on JHA and RE. The mechanism of applying RE to address operation process risk is illustrated. The integrated approach can provide guidelines to establish proactive risk reduction measures as well as maintain a low-risk level. Finally, a gas transmission startup process risk assessment case is presented to demonstrate its applicability.     

典型产业承接区土壤砷含量的空间分布特征及影响因素

本文以揭阳市为研究区域,采集了1330个表层土壤(0—20 cm)样品和331个深层土壤(150—200 cm)样品,利用富集因子法分析了表层土壤中As的污染状况,通过GIS空间分析技术以及单因素分析法探究了土壤As的空间分布特征以及影响因素.结果表明,研究区表层土壤As含量的均值为6.03 mg·kg^-1,低于该区土壤背景值(7.16 mg·kg^-1)及农用地土壤污染风险管控值(20 mg·kg^-1),大部分土壤为轻微污染和中度污染.揭阳市表层土壤As含量高值区分布于揭阳市东北部、中部和西南部地区,低值区分布于西北部和东南部地区.土壤类型、成土母质和土地利用类型是影响表层土壤As含量的重要因素,在不同土壤类型中,黄壤和赤红壤As含量相对较高;不同成土母质中,粉砂岩母质土壤As含量显著高于其他母质;在不同土地利用类型中,农用地土壤As含量最高.     

Toward harmonizing prospective effectiveness assessment for road safety: Comparing tools in standard test case simulations

Abstract

Objective: With the overall goal to harmonize prospective effectiveness assessment of active safety systems, the specific objective of this study is to identify and evaluate sources of variation in virtual precrash simulations and to suggest topics for harmonization resulting in increased comparability and thus trustworthiness of virtual simulation-based prospective effectiveness assessment.

Methods: A round-robin assessment of the effectiveness of advanced driver assistance systems was performed using an array of state-of-the-art virtual simulation tools on a set of standard test cases. The results were analyzed to examine reasons for deviations in order to identify and assess aspects that need to be harmonized and standardized. Deviations between results calculated by independent engineering teams using their own tools should be minimized if the research question is precisely formulated regarding input data, models, and postprocessing steps.

Results: Two groups of sources of variations were identified; one group (mostly related to the implementation of the system under test) can be eliminated by using a more accurately formulated research question, whereas the other group highlights further harmonization needs because it addresses specific differences in simulation tool setups. Time-to-collision calculations, vehicle dynamics, especially braking behavior, and hit-point position specification were found to be the main sources of variation.

Conclusions: The study identified variations that can arise from the use of different simulation setups in assessment of the effectiveness of active safety systems. The research presented is a first of its kind and provides significant input to the overall goal of harmonization by identifying specific items for standardization. Future activities aim at further specification of methods for prospective assessments of the effectiveness of active safety, which will enhance comparability and trustworthiness in this kind of studies and thus contribute to increased traffic safety.