便携式气相色谱质谱测定水中挥发性有机物再现性和准确度研究

建立了便携式顶空-气相色谱-质谱（HS-GC-MS）测定水中挥发性有机物的方法。以水中苯系物、卤代烃和氯代苯等VOCs为研究对象，在同一实验室内，使用3台便携式HS-GC-MS模拟现场应急监测环境开展检测活动，研究测定结果的再现性和准确度。实验结果表明，检测结果的相对标准偏差为0.7%~13%；绝大多数目标化合物测定结果的回收率为80%~120%。综合来看，方法的精密度和准确度基本满意，能够满足应急监测工作的需要。     

Exploiting Abstract Possibilities: A Critique of the Concept and Practice of Product Patenting

Developments in biotechnology and genomics have moved the issue of patenting scientific and technological inventions toward the center of interest. In particular, the patentability of genes of plants, animals, or humans and of genetically modified (parts of) living organisms has been discussed, and questioned, from various normative perspectives. This paper aims to contribute to this debate. For this purpose, it first explains a number of relevant aspects of the theory and practice of patenting. The focus is on a special and increasingly significant type of patents, namely product patents. The paper provides three general arguments against the concept and practice of product patenting. The first argument briefly considers the claim that patents are legitimate because they promote socially useful innovation. Against this claim, it is argued that product patents may hamper rather than promote such innovation. The second and main argument concludes that product patents are not adequately based on actual technological inventions, as they should be according to the usual criteria of patentability. The principal moral issue is that product patents tend to reward patentees for inventions they have not really made available. The final argument proposes a method for patenting the heat of the sun. Assuming that granting this patent will be generally considered absurd, the argument exposes a further, fundamental problem of the concept and practice of product patenting.     

Subjective modeling choices and the robustness of impact evaluations in conservation science

Arbitrary modeling choices are inevitable in scientific studies. Yet, few empirical studies in conservation science report the effects these arbitrary choices have on estimated results. I explored the effects of subjective modeling choices in the context of counterfactual impact evaluations. Over 5000 candidate models based on reasonable changes in the choice of statistical matching algorithms (e.g., genetic and nearest distance mahalanobis matching), the parametrization of these algorithms (e.g., number of matches), and the inclusion of specific covariates (e.g., distance to nearest city, slope, or rainfall) were valid for studying the effect of Virunga National Park in Democratic Republic of the Congo on changes in tree cover loss and carbon storage over time. I randomly picked 2000 of the 5000 candidate models to determine how much and which subjective modeling choices affected the results the most. All valid models indicated that tree cover loss decreased and carbon storage increased in Virunga National Park from 2000 to 2019. Nonetheless, the order of magnitude of the estimates varied by a factor of 3 (from −4.78 to −13.12 percentage points decrease in tree cover loss and from 20 to 46 t Ce/ha for carbon storage). My results highlight that modeling choices, notably the choice of the matching algorithm, can have significant effects on point estimates and suggest that more structured robustness checks are a key step toward more credible findings in conservation science.     

急性毒性藻红外测试中联合作用评价法的重现性

为认识藻红外联合作用评价法的稳定性,用苯(C6H6)、甲苯(C6H8)、二甲苯(C8H10)、氯苯(C6H5Cl)、三氯甲烷(CHCl3)和羊角月牙藻(Selenastrum capricornutum)进行了重现性实验,通过测试实验藻对5种药品不同组合的响应温差,用联合偏差系数法评价联合作用类型,分析药品联合毒性的重现性及联合作用评价法的评价效果。结果表明:二元组合中,重现性50%的5组,重现性75%的5组,平均重现性62.5%;三元组合中,重现性50%的1组,重现性75%的8组,重现性100%的1组,平均重现性75%;四元组合中,重现性50%的1组,重现性75%的1组,重现性100%的3组,平均重现性85%;五元组合重现性100%,混合药品总平均重现性73.1%。重现性大于阈值的组合19个,占全部26个组合的73.1%。药品组合元数增减与联合作用的重现性正相关。分析可知,藻红外联合作用评价法用于联合作用分析稳定性较好。     

A guide to representing variability and uncertainty in biodiversity indicators

Biodiversity indicators are used to inform decisions and measure progress toward global targets, such as the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Indicators aggregate and simplify complex information, so underlying information influencing its reliability and interpretation (e.g., variability in data and uncertainty in indicator values) can be lost. Communicating uncertainty is necessary to ensure robust decisions and limit misinterpretations of trends, yet variability and uncertainty are rarely quantified in biodiversity indicators. We developed a guide to representing uncertainty and variability in biodiversity indicators. We considered the key purposes of biodiversity indicators and commonly used methods for representing uncertainty (standard error, bootstrap resampling, and jackknife resampling) and variability (quantiles, standard deviation, median absolute deviation, and mean absolute deviation) with intervals. Using 3 high-profile biodiversity indicators (Red List Index, Living Planet Index, and Ocean Health Index), we tested the use, suitability, and interpretation of each interval method based on the formulation and data types underpinning the indicators. The methods revealed vastly different information; indicator formula and data distribution affected the suitability of each interval method. Because the data underpinning each indicator were not normally distributed, methods relying on normality or symmetrical spread were unsuitable. Quantiles, bootstrapping, and jackknifing provided useful information about the underlying variability and uncertainty. We built a decision tree to inform selection of the appropriate interval method to represent uncertainty or variation in biodiversity indicators, depending on data type and objectives. Our guide supports transparent and effective communication of biodiversity indicator trends to facilitate accurate interpretation by decision makers.     

6项环境监测分析方法标准中钴、铬、钼、钛的不确定度分析及其在达标判定中的应用

研究依据测定不确定度的基本理论和ISO 21748：2017《采用重复性、再现性和正确度评估测量不确定度的导则》，提出了基于中国环境监测分析方法标准多家实验室验证中已获得的数据计算合成标准不确定度的方法，将方法标准中规定的重复性、再现性等指标与合成标准不确定度进行了衔接。分析了近年发布的6项水质监测分析方法标准中钴、铬、钼、钛等4种金属元素的相对合成标准不确定度，结果表明：被测量的浓度是影响方法标准测量不确定度的重要因素。对于火焰原子吸收分光光度法（FAAS）和石墨炉原子吸收分光光度法（GAAS），样品浓度为方法标准测定下限3倍左右时，测定结果的相对标准不确定度可保持在15%以下；对于电感耦合等离子体发射光谱法（ICP-AES），样品浓度为方法标准测定下限3~5倍时，测定结果的相对标准不确定度为12%~17%；对于电感耦合等离子体质谱法（ICP-MS），钛元素浓度为测定下限3倍左右时，相对标准不确定度在15%以下，而钴、铬、钼的浓度在测定下限40~100倍以上时，相对标准不确定度在15%以下。6项方法标准可分别用于《地表水环境质量标准》（GB 3838—2002）以及22项水污染物排放标准钴、铬、钼、钛的达标监测。     

地铁车站疏散瓶颈疏散优化共性方案仿真研究*

为解决地铁车站高峰期乘客疏散的瓶颈问题,对比高成本的单一模型实验,提出1套基于Anylogic软件针对车站乘客疏散瓶颈的可重复仿真优化方案。通过实地调查,对比一般地铁车站由站厅层和站台层组成的结构特性;分析2层之间乘客通过楼梯、扶梯等进行疏散的车站共性,创建针对行人流动态疏散过程的通用仿真模型;统计模拟疏散过程中影响疏散效率的参数,给出针对共性模型的优化方案。研究结果表明:疏散总时长较优化前减少35 s,模拟成功疏散人数增加164人。研究结果能够优化车站的紧急疏散瓶颈现象从而改善车站的安全性和舒适性,所提出的优化方案可为解决车站乘客疏散问题提供研究思路。