Fisheries management: integrating societal preference, decision analysis, and ecological risk assessment

Fisheries management is the practice of analyzing and selecting options to maintain or alter the structure, dynamics, and interaction of habitat, aquatic biota, and man to achieve human goals and objectives. The theory of fisheries management is: managers or decision makers attempt to maximize renewable `output' from an aquatic resource by choosing from among a set of decision options and applying a set of actions that generate an array of outputs. Outputs may be defined as a tangible catch, a fishing experience, an existence value, or anything else produced or supported by renewable aquatic resources. Overall output is always a mix of tangible and intangible elements. However defined, management goals and objectives are essential components of fisheries management or any other field of renewable natural resource management. Reaching consensus on management goals and objectives has never been a simple task. Beyond the broad and often conflicting goals of an agency, managers must decide who should set specific management objectives — agency personnel, the public, or a combination of the two. Historically, rhetoric aside, fisheries managers in North America nearly always have consulted with professionals in governmental roles to set management objectives. In a strongly pluralistic society, this often resulted in protracted political and legal conflict. Increasingly, there are calls for use of risk assessment to help solve such ecological policy and management problems commonly encountered in fisheries management. The basic concepts of ecological risk assessment may be simple, but the jargon and details are not. Risk assessment (and similar analytical tools) is a concept that has evoked strong reactions whenever it has been used. In spite of the difficulties of defining problems and setting management objectives for complex ecological policy questions, use of risk assessment to help solve ecological problems is widely supported. Ecological risk assessment will be most useful (and objective) in political deliberations when the policy debate revolves around largely technical concerns. To the extent that risk assessment forces policy debate and disagreement toward fundamental differences rather than superficial ones, it will be useful in decision making.     

Integrated model of simulated occupant injury risk and real medical costs

Introduction

The purpose of this study was to develop an integrated methodology that links occupant injury risk functions, estimated in the laboratory, with real world medical treatment costs by using the abbreviated injury score (AIS). Using our model, the expected medical treatment costs for crash injuries to various body regions and of different severities can be investigated.

Methods

First, the simulation results are compared with NHTSA crash data. We used a modified kinematics simulation model that incorporates an F = E^b function as a supplement to the previous Steffan's model to obtain a more accurate acceleration history a(t). Second, head injury criteria HIC₃₆ can be calculated from a(t), and we use the injury probability P as a function of HIC_36, as proposed by Kuppa, to obtain the injury risk function for various AIS values. Third, medical treatment cost models for various AIS values can be calculated by using a regression cost model with real world data. Finally, the injury risk function and medical treatment cost models are linked through AIS values. We establish an integrated methodology and predict medical costs and car safety data using real world police reports, medical treatment costs, and laboratory simulation results.

Results

Using head injuries in frontal crashes as an example, we focus on simulation parameters for different vehicle models, with and without airbags. We specifically examine impact closing speed, Delta-V, and impact directions.

Conclusion

Simulation results can be used to supplement insufficient real crash data, in particular ΔV, and injury risk results from police crash reports.

Impact on industry

The proposed integrated methodology may provide the vehicle industry with a new safety assessment method. Real crash data coupling provides consumers with more realistic and applicable information.     

A note on the effectiveness of the house-arrest alternative for motivating DWI offenders to install ignition interlocks

Introduction

The effectiveness of ignition interlocks at reducing drunk driving has been limited by the ability of driving-while-intoxicated (DWI) offenders to avoid court orders to install the devices.

Methods

In a pilot program in New Mexico, four Santa Fe County judges imposed home confinement (via electronic monitoring bracelets) on offenders who claimed to have no car or no intention to drive. Interlock installation rates for Santa Fe County were compared with all other counties in New Mexico over a 2-year program and 2-year post-program period.

Results

During the two program years, 70% of the drivers convicted of DWI in Santa Fe County installed interlocks, compared to only 17% in the other counties, but when the program was terminated, the Santa Fe installation rate fell by 18.8 percentage points.

Summary

Mandating the alternative sanction of house arrest led to the highest reported interlock installation rate for DWI offenders.

Impact on Industry

Impaired driving is a substantial expense to employers, particularly when it bars driving that interferes with employment. Interlocks provide a method of protecting the public while permitting the offender to drive sober. This study was directed at increasing interlock use by DWI offenders.     

Fetal blood sampling via the umbilical cord using a needle guided by ultrasound report of 66 cases

Pure fetal blood has been aspirated in utero from the umbilical vein near the placental insertion of the cord using a twenty gauge needle under ultrasound guidance. Sixty-six samples were taken on 63 pregnancies between 17 and 32 weeks of gestation. One to two millilitres of blood can be obtained easily without amniotic fluid dilution or contamination by maternal blood, as confirmed by the measurements of the mean corpuscular volume, the histogram distribution of the red blood cells and the hematocrit. In all cases the Kleihauer test and isoelectrofocusing of the hemoglobins were performed. Coagulation factors were also studied in 60 cases. In 17 cases a medical abortion was voluntarily induced after the procedure, and the follow-up was normal during the observation period after sampling. In the other cases, pregnancies have continued normally and twelve healthy babies have already been born.     

Storm impacts along European coastlines. Part 2: lessons learned from the MICORE project

This paper describes the MICORE approach to quantify for nine field sites the crucial storm related physical hazards (hydrodynamic as well as morphodynamic) in support of early warning efforts and emergency response.As a first step historical storms that had a significant morphological impact on a representative number of sensitive European coastal stretches were reviewed and analysed in order to understand storm related morphological changes and how often they occur around Europe. Next, an on-line storm prediction system was set up to enable prediction of storm related hydro- and morphodynamic impacts. The system makes use of existing off-the-shelf models as well as a new open-source morphological model. To validate the models at least one year of fieldwork was done at nine pilot sites. The data was safeguarded and stored for future use in an open database that conforms to the OpenEarth protocols.To translate quantitative model results to useful information for Civil Protection agencies the Frame of Reference approach ( [Van Koningsveld et al., 2005] and [Van Koningsveld et al., 2007] ) was used to derive Storm Impact Indicators (SIIs) for relevant decision makers. The acquired knowledge is expected to be directly transferred to the civil society trough partnerships with end-users at the end of the MICORE project.     

Metal microchannel lamination using surface mount adhesives for low-temperature heat exchangers

This paper reports the feasibility of using surface mount adhesives to produce low temperature microchannel arrays in a wide variety of metals. Sheet metal embossing and chemical etching processes have been used to produce sealing bosses that eliminate channel laminae, resulting in approximately 50% material savings over traditional methods. An assembly process using adhesive dispense and cure is outlined to produce leak-free devices. Optimal fill ratios were determined to be between 1.1 and 1.25. Bond strength investigation reveals robustness to surface conditions and a bond strength of 5.5–8.5 MPa using a 3X safety factor. Dimensional characterization reveals a two sigma (95%) post-bonded channel height tolerance under 10% after bonding. Patterning tolerance and surface roughness of the laminae faying surfaces were found to have a significant influence on the final post-bonded channel height. Leakage and burst pressure testing on several samples has established confidence that adhesive bonding can produce leak-free joints. Operating pressures up to 413 kPa have been satisfied, equating to tensile pressure on bond joints of 1.9 MPa. Higher operating pressures can be accommodated by increasing the bond area of devices.     

Chemical plant innovative safety investments decision-support methodology

Introduction

This article examines the extent to which investing in safety during the creation of a new chemical installation proves profitable.

Method

The authors propose a management supporting cost-benefit model that identifies and evaluates investments in safety within a chemical company. This innovative model differentiates between serious accidents and less serious accidents, thus providing an authentic image of prevention-related costs and benefits. In classic cost-benefit analyses, which do not make such differentiations, only a rudimentary image of potential profitability resulting from investments in safety is obtained.

Results

The resulting management conclusions that can be drawn from such classical analyses are of a very limited nature. The proposed model, however, is applied to a real case study and the proposed investments in safety at an appointed chemical installation are weighed against the estimated hypothetical benefits resulting from the preventive measures to be installed at the installation.

Conclusion

In the case-study carried out in question, it would appear that the proposed prevention investments are justified.

Impact on industry

Such an economic exercise may be very important to chemical corporations trying to (further) improve their safety investments.     

An inquiry into the potential of scenario analysis for dealing with uncertainty in strategic environmental assessment in China

Strategic environmental assessment (SEA) inherently needs to address greater levels of uncertainty in the formulation and implementation processes of strategic decisions, compared with project environmental impact assessment. The range of uncertainties includes internal and external factors of the complex system that is concerned in the strategy. Scenario analysis is increasingly being used to cope with uncertainty in SEA. Following a brief introduction of scenarios and scenario analysis, this paper examines the rationale for scenario analysis in SEA in the context of China. The state of the art associated with scenario analysis applied to SEA in China was reviewed through four SEA case analyses. Lessons learned from these cases indicated the word “scenario” appears to be abused and the scenario-based methods appear to be misused due to the lack of understanding of an uncertain future and scenario analysis. However, good experiences were also drawn on, regarding how to integrate scenario analysis into the SEA process in China, how to cope with driving forces including uncertainties, how to combine qualitative scenario storylines with quantitative impact predictions, and how to conduct assessments and propose recommendations based on scenarios. Additionally, the ways to improve the application of this tool in SEA were suggested. We concluded by calling for further methodological research on this issue and more practices.     

Fall from equipment injuries in U.S. mining: Identification of specific research areas for future investigation

Introduction

The objective of this study was to evaluate the circumstances leading to fall from equipment injuries in the mining industry.

Method

The 2006 and 2007 Mine Safety and Health Administration annual injury databases were utilized for this study whereby the injury narrative, nature of injury, body part injured, mine type, age at injury, and days lost were evaluated for each injury.

Results

The majority of injuries occurred at surface mining facilities (∼ 60%) with fractures and sprains/strains being the most common injuries occurring to the major joints of the body. Nearly 50% of injuries occurred during ingress/egress, predominately during egress, and approximately 25% of injuries occurred during maintenance tasks. The majority of injuries occurred in relation to large trucks, wheel loaders, dozers, and conveyors/belts. The severity of injury was independent of age and the median days lost was seven days; however, there was a large range in severity.

Impact on industry

From the data obtained in this study, several different research areas have been identified for future work, which include balance and stability control when descending ladders and equipment design for maintenance tasks.     

Framework for integration of urban planning, strategic environmental assessment and ecological planning for urban sustainability within the context of China

Sustainable development or sustainability has been highlighted as an essential principle in urban master planning, with increasing recognition that uncontrollable urbanization may well give rise to various issues such as overexploitation of natural resources, ecosystem destruction, environmental pollution and large-scale climate change. Thus, it is deemed necessary to modify the existing urban and regional administrative system so as to cope with the challenges urban planning is being confronted with and realize the purpose of urban sustainability. This paper contributed to proposing a mechanism which helps to make urban planning with full consideration of issues with respect to sustainable development. We suggested that the integration of urban planning, SEA and ecological planning be a multi-win strategy to offset deficiency of each mentioned political tool being individually applied. We also proposed a framework where SEA and ecological planning are fully incorporated into urban planning, which forms a two-way constraint mechanism to ascertain environmental quality of urban planning, although in practice, planning and SEA processes may conditionally be unified. Moreover, as shown in the case study, the integration of the three political tools may be constrained due to slow changes in the contextual factors, in particular the political and cultural dimensions. Currently within the context of China, there may be three major elements which facilitate integration of the three political tools, which are (1) regulatory requirement of PEIA on urban planning, (2) the promotion or strong administrative support from government on eco-district building, and (3) the willingness of urban planners to collaborate with SEA experts or ecologists.