Millennial‐Length Records of Streamflow From Three Major Upper Colorado River Tributaries1

Gray, Stephen T., Jeffrey J. Lukas, and Connie A. Woodhouse, 2011. Millennial‐Length Records of Streamflow From Three Major Upper Colorado River Tributaries. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(4):702‐712. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00535.x Abstract: Drought, climate change, and shifting consumptive use are prompting a widespread reassessment of water availability in the Upper Colorado River basin. Here, we present millennial‐length records of water year (October‐September) streamflow for key Upper Colorado tributaries: the White, Yampa, and Little Snake Rivers. Based on tree rings, these records represent the first paleohydrological reconstructions from these subbasins to overlap with a series of Medieval droughts (∼ad 800 to 1300). The reconstructions show marked interannual variability imbedded in nonstationary behavior over decadal to multidecadal time scales. These reconstructions suggest that, even in a millennial context, gaged flows from a handful of years (e.g., 1977 and 2002) were extremely dry. However, droughts of much greater duration and magnitude than any in the instrumental record were regular features prior to 1900. Likewise these reconstructions point to the unusual wetness of the gage period, and the potential for recent observations to paint an overly optimistic picture of regional water supplies. The future of the Upper Colorado River will be determined by a combination of inherent hydroclimatic variability and a broad range of human‐induced changes. It is then essential that regional water managers, water users, and policy makers alike consider a broader range of hydroclimatic scenarios than is offered by the gage record alone.     

A TREE‐RING RECONSTRUCTION OF STREAMFLOW FOR THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE1

ABSTRACT: Water resource planning is based primarily on 20th century instrumental records of climate and streamflow. These records are limited in length to approximately 100 years, in the best cases, and can reflect only a portion of the range of natural variability. The instrumental record neither can be used to gage the unusualness of 20th Century extreme low flow events, nor does it allow the detection of low‐frequency variability that may underlie short‐term variations in flow. In this study, tree rings are used to reconstruct mean annual streamflow for Middle Boulder Creek in the Colorado Front Range, a semi‐arid region of rapid growth and development. The reconstruction is based on a stepwise regression equation that accounts for 70 percent of the variance in the instrumental record, and extends from 1703–1987. The reconstruction suggests that the instrumental record of streamflow for Middle Boulder Creek is not representative of flow in past centuries and that several low flow events in the 19th century were more persistent than any in the 20th century. The 1840s to early 1850s period of low flow is a particularly notable event and may have coincided with a period of low flow in the Upper Colorado River Basin.     

Temporal and spatial relationships in fine particle strong acidity, sulphate, PM1O, and PM2.5 across multiple canadian locations

The Canadian Acid Aerosol Measurement Program (CAAMP) was established in 1992 to gain a better understanding of the atmospheric behaviour of fine particle strong acidity (“acid aerosols”) and to facilitate an assessment of the potential health risks associated with acid aerosols and particles in general. During 1992. 1993 and 1994, annular denuder and filter measurements were taken at four sites in Ontario, two in Quebec, three in the Atlantic Provinces and one in the greater Vancouver area. Mean fine particle sulphate concentrations (SO₄²⁻) were highest in southern Ontario (annual average ranged from 40–70 nmol m⁻³), lowest at a site in the Vancouver area (average = 16 nmol m⁻³) and second lowest in rural Nova Scotia. However, mean fine particle strong acid concentrations (H⁺) were geographically different. The highest mean concentrations were at the east coast sites (annual average of up to 30 nmol m⁻³). Acidities were lower in areas where the fine particle acidity experienced greater neutralization from reaction with ammonia. This included the major urban centres (i.e. Toronto and Montréal) and areas with greater amounts of agricultural activity, as in rural southern Ontario. On average, ambient concentrations of fine and coarse particle mass were larger in the urban areas and also in areas where SO₄²⁻ levels were higher. All the particle components were episodic. However, compared to SO₄²⁻ and fine particles (PM_2.5 or PM_2.1, depending upon inlet design), episodes of H⁺ tended to be less frequent and of shorter duration, particularly in Ontario. Saint John, New Brunswick, had the highest mean annual H⁺ concentration, which was 30 nmol m⁻³. H⁺ episodes (24 h concentration > 100 nmol m⁻³) were also the most frequent at this location. The high levels in Saint John were partially due to local sulphur dioxide sources and heterogeneous chemistry occurring in fog, which, on average, led to a 50% enhancement in sulphate, relative to upwind conditions.There was a substantial amount of intersite correlation in the day to day variations in H⁺, SO₄²⁻ , PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ (fine + coarse particles) concentrations, which is due to the influence of synoptic-scale meteorology and the relatively long atmospheric lifetime of fine particles. Sulphate was the most regionally homogenous species. Pearson correlation coefficients comparing SO₄²⁻ between sites ranged from 0.6 to 0.9, depending on site separation and lag time. In many cases, particle episodes were observed to move across the entire eastern portion of Canada with about a two-day lag between the SO₄²⁻ levels in southern Ontario and in southern Nova Scotia.     

Intrauterine hypercalcaemia and non-immune hydrops fetalis— relationship to the Williams syndrome

We describe a 28-week-old fetus with severe non-immune hydrpps. Intrauterine cord blood sampling revealed hypercalcaemia of 3–4mmol/l (n = 2·6±0·1). Subsequently, a postmortem examination revealed supravalvular aortic and pulmonary artery stenosis together with extensive arterial calcification. The maternal calcium, 25-hydroxyvitamin D₃, 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D₃, and parathyroid hormone levels were normal at delivery. This is the first time that hypercalcaemia has been diagnosed in vitro. We speculate on the fact that the disorder resulted as a consequence of abnormal vitamin D metabolism in the fetoplacental unit, and that it might be related to the Williams syndrome.     

Simulating PM concentration during a winter episode in a subtropical valley: Sensitivity simulations and evaluation methods

We investigated a two-week episode with high PM concentrations in California Central Valley during the Christmas–New Year of 2000–2001 using a modeling system that consists of a computationally efficient, 3-D photochemical–microphysical transport model, a mesoscale meteorological model, emission models, and an evaluation package. One hundred simulations were conducted with fine resolutions and observational constraints, to reproduce spatial and temporal features of observed PM concentrations and to understand the formation mechanism of the episode. Simulated PM concentrations consist of secondary inorganic components, mainly ammonium nitrate, and total carbon in areas with elevated concentrations in the accumulation mode, and consist of mainly dust and sea salt in the coarse mode. Simulated oxidants and nitrate were significantly elevated over the valley, and the latter showed much less amplitude than the former. Simulated PM concentrations were evaluated with observations systematically with spatially and temporally paired method, a more restrictive multivariate method (NMFROC), and a more flexible “gradient evaluation” method. The paired evaluation shows that high correlation coefficient (R = ～0.8) and low fractional error (FE = ～0.1) could be achieved at stations with elevated 24-h concentration of PM in the accumulation mode in some simulations. The NMFROC method was used to extract useful information from seemingly failed simulations. A “gradient evaluation” method is introduced here to extract additional information from simulations. We found that emission reductions of NO_x and AVOC showed similar effects on percentage basis in different areas, and both are more effective than reducing NH₃ for abating elevated concentrations of accumulation mode PM in California Central Valley during the winter episode.     

Reconstructions of Columbia River Streamflow from Tree‐Ring Chronologies in the Pacific Northwest,USA

We developed Columbia River streamflow reconstructions using a network of existing, new, and updated tree‐ring records sensitive to the main climatic factors governing discharge. Reconstruction quality is enhanced by incorporating tree‐ring chronologies where high snowpack limits growth, which better represent the contribution of cool‐season precipitation to flow than chronologies from trees positively sensitive to hydroclimate alone. The best performing reconstruction (back to 1609 CE) explains 59% of the historical variability and the longest reconstruction (back to 1502 CE) explains 52% of the variability. Droughts similar to the high‐intensity, long‐duration low flows observed during the 1920s and 1940s are rare, but occurred in the early 1500s and 1630s‐1640s. The lowest Columbia flow events appear to be reflected in chronologies both positively and negatively related to streamflow, implying low snowpack and possibly low warm‐season precipitation. High flows of magnitudes observed in the instrumental record appear to have been relatively common, and high flows from the 1680s to 1740s exceeded the magnitude and duration of observed wet periods in the late‐19th and 20th Century. Comparisons between the Columbia River reconstructions and future projections of streamflow derived from global climate and hydrologic models show the potential for increased hydrologic variability, which could present challenges for managing water in the face of competing demands.     

A Long View of Southern California Water Supply: Perfect Droughts Revisited

The impact of drought on water resources in arid and semiarid regions can be buffered by water supplies from different source regions. Simultaneous drought in all major source regions — or perfect drought — poses the most serious challenge to water management. We examine perfect droughts relevant to Southern California (SoCal) water resources with instrumental records and tree‐ring reconstructions for the Sacramento and Colorado Rivers, and SoCal. Perfect droughts have occurred five times since 1906, lasting two to three years, except for the most recent event, 2012–2015. This number and duration of perfect droughts is not unusual in the context of the past six centuries. The modern period stands out for the relatively even distribution of perfect droughts and lacks the clusters of perfect drought documented in prior centuries. In comparison, perfect droughts of the 12th Century were both longer (up to nine years) and more widespread. Perfect droughts of the 20th and 21st Centuries have occurred under different oceanic/atmospheric patterns, zonal and meridional flow, and ENSO or non‐ENSO conditions. Multidecadal coherence across the three regions exists, but it has varied over the past six centuries, resulting in irregular intervals of perfect drought. Although the causes of perfect droughts are not clear, given the long‐term natural variability along with projected changes in climate, it is reasonable to expect more frequent and longer perfect droughts in the future.     

Science and Decision Making: Water Management and Tree‐Ring Data in the Western United States1

Abstract: Growing populations, limited resources, and sustained drought are placing increased pressure on already over‐allocated water supplies in the western United States, prompting some water managers to seek out and utilize new forms of climate data in their planning efforts. One source of information that is now being considered by water resource management is extended hydrologic records from tree‐ring data. Scientists with the Western Water Assessment (WWA) have been providing reconstructions of streamflow (i.e., paleoclimate data) to water managers in Colorado and other western states (Arizona, New Mexico, and Wyoming), and presenting technical workshops explaining the applications of tree‐ring data for water management for the past eight years. Little is known, however, about what has resulted from these engagements between scientists and water managers. Using in‐depth interviews and a survey questionnaire, we attempt to address this lack of information by examining the outcomes of the interactions between WWA scientists and western water managers to better understand how paleoclimate data has been translated to water resource management. This assessment includes an analysis of what prompts water managers to seek out tree‐ring data, how paleoclimate data are utilized by water managers in both quantitative and qualitative ways, and how tree‐ring data are interpreted in the context of organization mandates and histories. We situate this study within a framework that examines the coproduction of science and policy, where scientists and resource managers collectively define and examine research and planning needs, the activities of which are embedded within wider social and political contexts. These findings have broader applications for understanding science‐policy interactions related to climate and climate change in resource management, and point to the potential benefits of reflexive interactions of scientists and decision makers.     

Effects of initial seated position in low speed rear-end impacts: a comparison with the TNO rear impact dummy (TRID) model

Injury-producing mechanisms associated with rear-end impact collision has remained a mystery not withstanding numerous investigations devoted to its scrutiny. Several criteria have been proposed to predict the injury-causing mechanism, but none have been universally accepted. The challenge lies in determining a set of testing procedures representative of real-world collisions, wherein the results obtained are not only the same as human testing, but remain consistent with various subjects and impact conditions. It is hypothesized that one of the most important considerations in the testing methodology is the effect of initial seated position (ISP) on occupant kinematics during a rear impact collision. This study involves two parts that evaluates the effects of ISP during rear-end impact. In the first part, head acceleration results of computer simulation using Hybrid III TNO rear impact dummy (TRID) are compared to physical impact testing (PIT) of humans. The second part focuses on the computer simulation using TRID to obtain different neck parameters such as NIC (Neck Injury Criterion), NIJ (Neck Injury Predictor), neck forces and moments to predict the level of neck injury such as whiplash associated disorder (WAD) during low speed rear-end impact. In PIT, a total of 17 rear-impact tests were conducted with a nominal 8-km/hour change in velocity to 5 subjects in four different seated positions comprising of a normal position (NP) and three out of positions (OOP). The first position was a NP, defined as torso against the seat back, looking straight ahead, hands on the steering wheel, and feet on the floor. The second position was a head flex position (HFP), defined as the normal position with head flexed forward approximately 20 degrees. The third position was a torso lean position (TLP), defined as the normal position with torso leaned forward approximately 10 degrees away from the seat back. Lastly, a torso lean head flex position (TLHFP), defined as the normal position with the head flexed forward approximately 20 degrees and torso leaned forward approximately 10 degrees. The head acceleration plots from PIT reveal that for the third and fourth positions (TLP and TLHFP) when the subject torso leaned forward, the peak head acceleration for the subject decreased and there was also a delay in reaching the peak. The Hybrid III-TRID anthropomorphic test dummy (ATD) was used in the same four different seated positions using computer simulation software MAthematical DYnamic MOdel (MADYMO 6.0) and the head acceleration results were compared to PIT. The comparison demonstrates that the Hybrid III-TRID ATD with MADYMO can be a reliable testing procedure during low-speed, rear-end impact for the four ISPs considered since the head acceleration plots deviated within the range of PIT head acceleration plots for different human subjects. This ensures that the second part of the study with neck injury using computer simulation results is a reliable testing procedure. It can be observed that MADYMO results have a greater error when compared to PIT when more than one OOP condition is employed as in TLHFP. All these observations would help in providing a tool to better understand the injury mechanisms and provide an accurate testing procedure for rear-end impact.