A performance evaluation of the National Air Quality Forecast Capability for the summer of 2007

This paper provides a performance evaluation of the real-time, CONUS-scale National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) that supported, in part, its transition into operational status. This evaluation focuses primarily on discrete forecasts for the maximum 8-h O₃ concentrations covering the 4-month period, June through September, 2007, using measurements obtained from EPA's AIRNow network. Results indicate that the 2007 NAQFC performed as well or better than previous configurations, despite the expansion of the forecast domain into the western half of the nation that is dominated by complex terrain. The mean, domain-wide, season-long correlation was 0.70. When examined over time, the domain-wide correlations exhibit a fairly consistent nature, with values exceeding 0.60 (0.70) over 90% (55%) of the days. The NAQFC systematically over-predicted the 8-h O₃ concentrations, continuing a trend established by earlier NAQFC configurations, though to a lesser degree. The summer-long mean forecast value of 53.2 ppb was 4.2 ppb higher than the observed value, resulting in a domain-wide Normalized Mean Bias (NMB) of 8.7%. Most of the over-prediction is associated with observed concentrations less than 50 ppb. In fact the model tends to under-predict when concentrations exceed 70 ppb. As with the bias, the error associated with the latest configuration was also lower. The summer-long Root Mean Square Error of 13.0 ppb (Normalized Mean Error (NME) = 20.4%) represented marked improvements over earlier forecasts. Examination of the spatial distribution of both the NMB and NME reveals that the NAQFC was generally within 25% for the NME and 25% for the NMB over a majority of the domain. Several areas of poorer performance, where the NMB and NME often exceed 25% and in some cases 50%, were noted. These areas include southern California, where the NAQFC tended to under-predict concentrations (especially on weekends) and the southeast Atlantic and Gulf coasts regions, where the model over-predicted. Subsequent analysis revealed that the incorrect temporal allocation of precursor emissions was likely the source of the under-prediction in southern California, while inaccurate simulation of PBL heights likely contributed to the over-prediction in the coastal regions.     

A Coupled Land-Surface and Dry Deposition Model and Comparison to Field Measurements of Surface Heat,Moisture, and Ozone Fluxes

We have developed a coupled land-surface and drydeposition model for realistic treatment of surface fluxes ofheat, moisture, and chemical dry deposition within acomprehensive air quality modelling system. A new land-surfacemodel (LSM) with explicit treatment of soil moisture andevapotranspiration and an indirect soil moisture nudging schemehas been added to a mesoscale meteorology model. The new drydeposition model uses the same aerodynamic and bulk stomatalresistances computed for evapotranspiration in the LSM. Thisprovides consistent land-surface and boundary layer propertiesacross the meteorological and chemical components of the system. The coupled dry deposition model also has the advantage of beingable to respond to changing soil moisture and vegetationconditions. Modelled surface fluxes of sensible and latent heatas well as ozone dry deposition velocities were compared to twofield experiments: a soybean field in Kentucky during summer 1995and a mixed forest in the Adirondacks of New York in July 1998.(on assignment to the National Exposure Research Laboratory, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency) (author for correspondence, e-mail(on assignment to the National Exposure Research Laboratory, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency)     

Performance and Diagnostic Evaluation of Ozone Predictions by the Eta-Community Multiscale Air Quality Forecast System during the 2002 New England Air Quality Study

Abstract

A real-time air quality forecasting system (Eta-Community Multiscale Air Quality [CMAQ] model suite) has been developed by linking the National Centers for Environmental Estimation Eta model to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) CMAQ model. This work presents results from the application of the Eta-CMAQ modeling system for forecasting ozone (O₃) over the Northeastern United States during the 2002 New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS). Spatial and temporal performance of the Eta-CMAQ model for O₃ was evaluated by comparison with observations from the EPA Air Quality System (AQS) network. This study also examines the ability of the model to simulate the processes governing the distributions of tropospheric O₃ on the basis of the intensive datasets obtained at the four Atmospheric Investigation, Regional Modeling, Analysis, and Estimation (AIRMAP) and Harvard Forest (HF) surface sites. The episode analysis reveals that the model captured the buildup of O₃ concentrations over the northeastern domain from August 11 and reproduced the spatial distributions of observed O₃ very well for the daytime (8:00 p.m.) of both August 8 and 12 with most of normalized mean bias (NMB) within [H11006]20%. The model reproduced 53.3% of the observed hourly O₃ within a factor of 1.5 with NMB of 29.7% and normalized mean error of 46.9% at the 342 AQS sites.The comparison of modeled and observed lidar O₃ vertical profiles shows that whereas the model reproduced the observed vertical structure, it tended to overestimate at higher altitude. The model reproduced 64 –77% of observed NO₂ photolysis rate values within a factor of 1.5 at the AIRMAP sites. At the HF site, comparison of modeled and observed O₃/nitrogen oxide (NO_x) ratios suggests that the site is mainly under strongly NO_x-sensitive conditions (>53%). It was found that the modeled lower limits of the O₃ production efficiency values (inferred from O₃-CO correlation) are close to the observations.     

Impact of anthropogenic heat emissions on meteorological parameters and air quality in Beijing using a high-resolution model simulation

• The Large scale Urban Consumption of energY model was updated and coupled with WRF. • Anthropogenic heat emissions altered the precipitation and its spatial distribution. • A reasonable AHE scheme could improve the performance of simulated PM_2.5. • AHE aggravated the O₃ pollution in urban areas. Anthropogenic heat emissions (AHE) play an important role in modulating the atmospheric thermodynamic and kinetic properties within the urban planetary boundary layer, particularly in densely populated megacities like Beijing. In this study, we estimate the AHE by using a Large-scale Urban Consumption of energY (LUCY) model and further couple LUCY with a high-resolution regional chemical transport model to evaluate the impact of AHE on atmospheric environment in Beijing. In areas with high AHE, the 2-m temperature (T₂) increased to varying degrees and showed distinct diurnal and seasonal variations with maxima in night and winter. The increase in 10-m wind speed (WS₁₀) and planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) exhibited slight diurnal variations but showed significant seasonal variations. Further, the systematic continuous precipitation increased by 2.1 mm due to the increase in PBLH and water vapor in upper air. In contrast, the precipitation in local thermal convective showers increased little because of the limited water vapor. Meanwhile, the PM_2.5 reduced in areas with high AHE because of the increase in WS₁₀ and PBLH and continued to reduce as the pollution levels increased. In contrast, in areas where prevailing wind direction was opposite to that of thermal circulation caused by AHE, the WS₁₀ reduced, leading to increased PM_2.5. The changes of PM_2.5 illustrated that a reasonable AHE scheme might be an effective means to improve the performance of PM_2.5 simulation. Besides, high AHE aggravated the O₃ pollution in urban areas due to the reduction in NO_x.     

Performance and diagnostic evaluation of ozone predictions by the Eta-Community Multiscale Air Quality Forecast System during the 2002 New England Air Quality Study

A real-time air quality forecasting system (Eta-Community Multiscale Air Quality [CMAQ] model suite) has been developed by linking the National Centers for Environmental Estimation Eta model to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) CMAQ model. This work presents results from the application of the Eta-CMAQ modeling system for forecasting ozone (O3) over the Northeastern United States during the 2002 New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS). Spatial and temporal performance of the Eta-CMAQ model for O3 was evaluated by comparison with observations from the EPA Air Quality System (AQS) network. This study also examines the ability of the model to simulate the processes governing the distributions of tropospheric O3 on the basis of the intensive datasets obtained at the four Atmospheric Investigation, Regional Modeling, Analysis, and Estimation (AIRMAP) and Harvard Forest (HF) surface sites. The episode analysis reveals that the model captured the buildup of O3 concentrations over the northeastern domain from August 11 and reproduced the spatial distributions of observed O3 very well for the daytime (8:00 p.m.) of both August 8 and 12 with most of normalized mean bias (NMB) within +/- 20%. The model reproduced 53.3% of the observed hourly O3 within a factor of 1.5 with NMB of 29.7% and normalized mean error of 46.9% at the 342 AQS sites. The comparison of modeled and observed lidar O3 vertical profiles shows that whereas the model reproduced the observed vertical structure, it tended to overestimate at higher altitude. The model reproduced 64-77% of observed NO2 photolysis rate values within a factor of 1.5 at the AIRMAP sites. At the HF site, comparison of modeled and observed O3/nitrogen oxide (NOx) ratios suggests that the site is mainly under strongly NOx-sensitive conditions (>53%). It was found that the modeled lower limits of the O3 production efficiency values (inferred from O3-CO correlation) are close to the observations.     

High reduction of ozone and particulate matter during the 2016 G-20 summit in Hangzhou by forced emission controls of industry and traffic

Many regions in China experience air pollution episodes because of the rapid urbanization and industrialization over the past decades. Here we analyzed the effect of emission controls implemented during the G-20 2016 Hangzhou summit on air quality. Emission controls included a forced closure of highly polluting industries, and limiting traffic and construction emissions in the cities and surroundings. Particles with aerodynamic diameter lower than 2.5 μm (PM_2.5) and ozone (O₃) were measured. We also simulated air quality using a forecast system consisting of the two-way coupled Weather Research and Forecast and Community Multi-scale Air Quality (WRF-CMAQ) model. Results show PM_2.5 and ozone levels in Hangzhou during the G-20 Summit were considerably lower than previous to the G-20 Summit. The predicted concentrations of ozone were reduced by 25.4%, whereas the predicted concentrations of PM_2.5 were reduced by 56%.     

The impact of chemical lateral boundary conditions on CMAQ predictions of tropospheric ozone over the continental United States

A sensitivity study is performed to examine the impact of lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) on the NOAA-EPA operational Air Quality Forecast Guidance over continental USA. We examined six LBCS: the fixed profile LBC, three global LBCs, and two ozonesonde LBCs for summer 2006. The simulated results from these six runs are compared to IONS ozonesonde and surface ozone measurements from August 1 to 5, 2006. The choice of LBCs can affect the ozone prediction throughout the domain, and mainly influence the predictions in upper altitude or near inflow boundaries, such as the US west coast and the northern border. Statistical results shows that the use of global model predictions for LBCs could improve the correlation coefficients of surface ozone prediction over the US west coast, but could also increase the ozone mean bias in most regions of the domain depending on global models. In this study, the use of the MOZART (Model for Ozone And Related chemical Tracers) prediction for CMAQ (Community Multiscale Air Quality) LBC shows a better surface ozone prediction than that with fixed LBC, especially over the US west coast. The LBCs derived from ozonesonde measurements yielded better O₃ correlations in the upper troposphere.