Auditing the precision and accuracy of environmental impact predictions in Australia

Our understanding of natural ecosystems can be measured by our ability to predict their responses to external disturbances. Predictions made during environmental impact assessment (EIA) for major development projects are hypotheses about such responses, which can be tested with data collected in environmental monitoring programmes. The systematic comparison of predicted and actual impacts has been termed environmental impact audit. Ecosystem disturbances associated with major resource developments, though of lesser magnitude than those associated with natural cataclysms, are generally of far greater magnitude than those which can be applied experimentally. Environmental audit can hence provide critical tests of theory in a number of natural sciences. It is also needed to improve the scientific content of EIA. Audits of 4 and 29 EISs respectively have been carried out previously in the UK and USA, but this is the first national scale audit for any country. It is also the first attempt to select, from the many vague statements in EISs, only those predictions that are scientifically testable, and to determine and analyse their quantitative accuracies. Its principal results are as follows. The average accuracy of quantified, critical, testable predictions in environmental impact statements in Australia to date is 44%±5% s.e. Predictions where actual impacts proved more than expected were on average significantly (p<0.05) less accurate (33%±9%) than those where they proved as or less severe (53%±6%).     

An LC-MS/MS method for creatine and creatinine analysis in paraquat-intoxicated patients

Abstract

A sudden increase in serum creatinine after paraquat intoxication has been reported in several clinical studies. However, this dramatic change of creatinine may be possibly due to an interconversion of creatine-creatinine in relation to paraquat toxicity. In order to investigate the creatine-creatinine relationship, a liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry in combination with electrospray ionization was developed and validated for simultaneous determination of creatine and creatinine in the serum. The chromatographic separation was achieved on a Gemini® C₆-Phenyl column with a gradient elution consisting of 0.1% formic acid in ultrapure water and methanol as the mobile phase. The method yielded suitable levels of specificity and selectivity, and calibration curves of creatine and creatinine in serum were linear over the concentration range of 0.5–200?µg mL^?1. The limit of quantification of both compounds was 0.5?µg mL^?1, and the method was accurate within the recovery range of 96.23–102.75%, indicating the robustness of the method. The method was successfully applied to toxicological samples from paraquat-intoxicated patients, and the concentrations of creatine and creatinine were quantified. High creatine concentrations in serum samples were observed which may lead to high serum creatinine despite normal kidney function as creatine is converted to creatinine in proportion to its concentration.     

Walking in the Irish countryside: landowner preferences and attitudes to improved public access provision

This paper explores the attitudes of landowners across Ireland to the wider provision of public access for recreational walking using a multinomial logit model. The study also investigates the level of compensation required to improve the supply of this public good. Results indicate that 51% of landowners are not willing to provide access (non-providers), 21% are willing to provide access free of charge (free providers) and 28% seek compensation (willing providers). The findings indicate that participation by landowners in a proposed public access scheme is influenced by landowners' experience with walkers, farm type, farm insurance costs, household demographics, regional variations, opportunity cost of land and participation in other agri-environment schemes. Mean willingness-to-accept for landowners willing to facilitate improved public access for walking was found to be €0.27 per metre of walkway.     

Precision placement of separated dairy sludge improves early phosphorus nutrition and growth in corn ( L.)

Efficient use of manure nutrients by crops is necessary to minimize losses to the environment. This field study examined the possibility of replacing side-banded mineral P with precision-placed high-P sludge (6.2-11.0% dry matter) obtained after settling dairy manure slurry. The sludge was injected at about 30 kg P ha (36.0-51.2 m ha) into the soil at corn row spacing, and the corn was planted 5, 10, and 15 cm beside the injection furrow. Controls included no added P and side-banded commercial P fertilizer. The treatments were tested on corn with low and high root colonization by arbuscular mycorrhizae (AM). The study showed that sludge did not impede AM root colonization, corn germination, or seedling growth. Corn plants with both high and low levels of AM colonization responded to the sludge from the three-leaf stage and showed the greatest benefit at the six-leaf stage. Corn responded more to sludge placed at 5 than at 15 cm from the corn rows, whereas the response at the 10-cm spacing was intermediate. There was little difference in seedling growth or final harvest parameters between the side-banded fertilizer P and the 5-cm sludge treatment. The results show a new way to use manure nutrients, namely precision-placement sludge for corn. This may obviate the need for chemical fertilizers for improving farm nutrient balances. Other anticipated benefits are less energy use for hauling and injection of the sludge fraction and reduced risk of nutrient loss by runoff and volatilization (ammonia) and nuisance odors due to injection.     

The longitudinal dependence of black carbon concentration on traffic volume in an urban environment

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of traffic volume on ambient black carbon (BC) concentration in an inner-city neighborhood "hot spot" while accounting for modifying effects of weather and time. Continuous monitoring was conducted for 12 months at the Baltimore Traffic Study site surrounded by major urban streets that together carry over 150,000 vehicles per day. Outdoor BC concentration was measured with an Aethalometer; vehicles were counted pneumatically on two nearby streets. Meteorological data were also obtained. Missing data were imputed and all data were normalized to a 5-min observational interval (n = 105,120). Time-series modeling accounted for autoregressively (AR) correlated errors. This study found that outdoor BC was positively correlated at a statistically significant level with neighborhood-level vehicle counts, which contributed at a rate of 66 +/- 10 (SE) ng/m3 per 100 vehicles every 5 min. Winds from the SW-S-SE quarter were associated with the greatest increases in BC (376-612 ng/m3). These winds would have entrained BC from Baltimore's densely trafficked central business district, as well as a nearby interstate highway. The strong influence of wind direction implicates atmospheric transport processes in determining BC exposure. Dew point, mixing height, wind speed, season, and workday were also statistically significant predictors. Background exposure to BC was estimated to be 905 ng/m3. The optimal, statistically significant representation of BC's autocorrelation was AR([1:6]) x 288 x 2016, where the short-term AR factor (lags 1-6) indicated that BC concentrations are correlated for up to 30 min, and the AR factors for lags 288 and 2016 indicate longer-term autocorrelations at diurnal and weekly cycles, respectively. It was concluded that local exposure to BC from mobile sources is substantially modified by meteorological and temporal conditions, including atmospheric transport processes. BC concentration also demonstrates statistically significant autocorrelation at several time scales.     

Neanderthal medics? Evidence for food, cooking, and medicinal plants entrapped in dental calculus

Neanderthals disappeared sometime between 30,000 and 24,000?years ago. Until recently, Neanderthals were understood to have been predominantly meat-eaters; however, a growing body of evidence suggests their diet also included plants. We present the results of a study, in which sequential thermal desorption-gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (TD-GC-MS) and pyrolysis-gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (Py-GC-MS) were combined with morphological analysis of plant microfossils, to identify material entrapped in dental calculus from five Neanderthal individuals from the north Spanish site of El Sidrón. Our results provide the first molecular evidence for inhalation of wood-fire smoke and bitumen or oil shale and ingestion of a range of cooked plant foods. We also offer the first evidence for the use of medicinal plants by a Neanderthal individual. The varied use of plants that we have identified suggests that the Neanderthal occupants of El Sidrón had a sophisticated knowledge of their natural surroundings which included the ability to select and use certain plants.     

Protective factors associated with young passenger intervening in risky driving situations

IntroductionWhile the negative influence of passengers on driving is usually studied, young passengers may protect against young drivers' crash involvement by speaking out and trying to stop unsafe driving behavior. This study sought to examine psychosocial constructs of young passengers who are likely to intervene in their friends' risky driving.MethodUniversity students aged 17 to 25 years who were single (n = 123) or in a romantic relationship (n = 130) completed an online survey measuring protective factors.ResultsThe combination of individual, friend and (for participants in a relationship) romantic partner protective factors predicted self-reported passenger intervening intentions.Impact on IndustrySince peer passengers often increase young drivers' crash risk, research on passenger intervening has significant implications for road safety strategies. The findings provide support for the operationalization of protective factors in strategies that target passenger intervening behavior.     

RNA-DNA ratio: an index of larval fish growth in the sea

Data on water temperature, RNA-DNA ratio, and growth of eight species of temperate marine fish larvae reared in the laboratory were fit to the equation: $$G_{pi} = 0.93{\text{ }}\operatorname{T} + 4.75{\text{ RNA - DNA}} - 18.18$$ where G_pi is the protein growth rate in % d^-1 and T is the water temperature. Water temperature and larval RNA-DNA ratio explained 92% of the variability in growth rate of laboratory-reared larvae. The model is useful over the entire range of feeding levels (starvation to excess), temperatures (2° to 20°C) and fish species studied. Estimates of recent growth of larval cod, haddock, and sand lance caught at sea based on water temperature and RNA-DNA ratio ranged from negative to 26% d^-1. These data demonstrate the importance of food availability in larval fish mortality and suggest that short-term growth under favorable conditions may be considerably higher than expected from long-term indicators. RNA-DNA ratio analysis offers new possibilities for understanding larval growth and mortality, and their relation to environmental variability.     

Environmental sensitivity mapping — what,why and how

Terms such as environmental stability, resilience or sensitivity are verbal abbreviations or abstractions for particular features of environmental stress-response relationships. An environmental planning map must take account of the range of possible stresses, responses, and stress-response relations, assess the significance of each, and express the most significant in a form immediately useable by planning engineers. The most critical part of this process is predicting the form of the stress-response relation for each stress and response. This is done essentially by comparison with similar environmental units elsewhere where the actual responses of particular stresses are already known. The level of precision attainable in an environmental planning map depends on the extent and relevance of information available for comparison: on the degree of similarity between the ecosystems and stresses where the responses are known and those for which the map is being prepared. The collection of environmental data from the area concerned, by aerial and ground survey, is of course also essential, but such data are of limited value without the background information required to predict the consequences of particular actions in the course of development.