最近和未来欧洲气候变化的特征

为了从日温度和日降水变化的层次来研究欧洲未来的气候,进行了6个区域气候模型的试验,研究了上述变量概率分布的变化.研究发现,这些分布的非对称性随地点和季节的变化各不相同.夏季中欧、东欧、南欧极端最高温度的大幅度变化之后,通常会出现暖季高于平均的温度升高,与此类似,东欧和北欧寒冷日温度的升高也显著大于冬季平均温度的升高.将冬季温度的模型模拟值与历史观测资料值进行比较,结果表明模拟值与观测值在日变率方面是相似的.特别地,和历史上寒冷时期相比,观测到的温暖时期平均温度在增加,而较这种增加强烈得多的寒冷日温度增加也被模型模拟了出来.在欧洲绝大部分地区和所有季节,强降水事件在模拟中的作用增加.     

Supportive Breeding and Variance Effective Population Size

The practice of supporting weak, wild populations through release of individuals bred in captivity is becoming an increasingly important conservation measure. A frequently recommended form of such breeding-release activity refers to supportive breeding: a fraction of the target population is brought into captivity for reproduction, and the resulting progeny are released to mix with the wild segment of the population. We derived an expression for the variance effective size of a population managed through supportive breeding and discuss its relationship to previously published equations that are based on the assumption of random mating. We show that the effect of supportive breeding may be quite different on the inbreeding and the variance effective sizes. Whereas supportive breeding always results in a reduction of the inbreeding effective number, the variance effective number may either decrease, increase, or remain unchanged. We discuss these observations in relation to conservation management and suggest some general guidelines for supportive breeding situations. Our recommendations include making a distinction between inbreeding and variance effective numbers; taking particular care when dealing with organisms with high reproductive potential; assuring that the amount of drift be no larger than it would be without supportive breeding; and focusing primarily on the variance effective size of a population-that is, on the effective number directly related to the rate of loss of gene diversity.     

A Variance Estimator for Constrained Estimates of Change in Relative Categorical Frequencies

Consistent estimators of change and state becomes an issue when sample data come from a mix of permanent and temporary observation units. A joint maximum likelihood estimator of state and change creates estimates of state that depend on antecedent viz. posterior survey results and may differ from estimates of state derived from a single-date analysis of the sample data. A constrained estimator of change in relative categorical frequencies that eliminates this potential inconsistency is proposed and a model based estimator of their sampling variance is developed. The performance of the constrained estimator is quantified against six criteria and a joint maximum likelihood estimator in simulated sampling from 15 populations with three combinations of permanent and temporary samples, four to six categorical class attributes, and constant size between sampling dates. Bias of the constrained estimators was negligible but larger than for joint maximum likelihood estimators. Mean absolute deviations and variances of constrained estimators were generally at par with the joint estimators. Constrained estimators of root mean square errors and achieved coverage of nominal confidence intervals of constrained estimators were occasionally better. A generalized variance function for the constrained estimates of change is provided as a computational shortcut.     

A study on the behaviour of pesticides and their transformation products in the Scheldt estuary using liquid chromatography-electrospray tandem mass spectrometry

Off-line solid-phase extraction (SPE) combined with liquid chromatography-electrospray tandem mass spectrometry (LC-ESI-MS-MS) was used to study the estuarine behaviour of the polar pesticides, atrazine, chloridazon, diuron and metolachlor, and their transformation products (TPs), hydroxyatrazine (HA), desisopropylatrazine (DIA), desethylatrazine (DEA), 3,4-dichlorophenylmethylurea (DPMU) and monuron. The compounds were identified by comparing their LC retention times and product-ion spectra with those of standard solutions. In all but one case the detection limits of the method were sufficient to determine the compounds of interest over the entire salinity range in the estuary. The concentrations of the dissolved pesticides ranged from 70 ng l-1 for chloridazon to 1350 ng l-1 for diuron. The levels of TPs were 3-8% of the levels of their parent pesticide. The mixing plots of polar pesticides and their TPs indicated that TPs, which are present in fresh river water, are conservatively transported to the sea and that no additional amounts of TPs are formed during their transport through the estuary. The one exception was HA, of which approximately 10% of the amount transported to the North Sea is formed in the lower part of the estuary by photochemical oxidation of atrazine. The latter was concluded from the ratios of each analyte over the sum total of the parent pesticide and all TPs along the salinity gradient, which proved to be a useful tool for identifying such estuarine transformations.     

科学的挑战--重视成本效益,清洁波罗的海

波罗的海是世界上受人类活动影响最严重的海洋之一,虽然有减少向波罗的海排放营养物质的国际协议,但迄今为止采取的措施,既没有从根本上减少营养物质的排放,也没有促进环境的改善.部分原因可以归咎为缺少有关物理学、生物地球化学和生态特性之间大尺度关系和相互作用的知识,但是还缺少全流域范围的成本效益分析.错误的决策非常危险,例如,执行的减少排放的方案根本没有效果,或远远达不到成本效益.许多学科的研究者正面临着一个共同的挑战开发一个决策支持系统,作为整个波罗的海成本效益分析法的科学基础.研究项目海洋富营养化的研究(MARE)(http∥www.mare.su.se)正致力于这方面的研究.     

不稳定气候条件下中上层鱼类的种群补充:瑞典四大湖泊研究

通过对瑞典维纳恩、韦特恩、梅拉伦和哈马伦四大湖泊中上层鱼类种群生物学的研究得出,适宜区域里鱼苗在生长季节尽早孵化,并在冬季到来之前达到一定的体长,对鱼苗的成活是至关重要的.一般认为,这不仅是为了适应春季浮游动植物的生长,同时也是为了避免被捕食.相对于秋季产卵的欧白鲑(Coregonus albula)来说,通过对春季产卵的胡瓜鱼(Osmerus eperlanus)和梭鲈(Stizostedion lucioperca)的研究,我们更容易得出上述的结论.冰融之后欧白鲑苗的迅速孵化对鱼类的种群生长较为有利.在贫营养性、掠食性鱼类很少的湖泊中,冰融化之后水温的快速回升对种群的补充较为有利,而在富营养性的湖泊中,由于存在被捕食的压力,情况就大不一样了.研究结果表明秋季产卵群体较难适应全球变暖的趋势,不同年份鱼类在年种群生长强度方面存在着较大的差异,这可用生活史来予以解释.     

Transabdominal chorionic villus sampling in the second and third trimesters of pregnancy: Chromosome quality,reporting time,and feto-maternal bleeding

Transabdominal chorionic villus sampling (TA-CVS) was performed in 210 pregnancies from 13 to 38 weeks using a double-needle technique. The sampling success was comparable to first-trimester TA-CVS and the diagnostic success rate was 98.2 per cent for the short-term technique and 99.3 per cent for cultured villi. Two fetuses could not be karyotyped. We found the chromosome quality to be similar to that in the first trimester, comparing the number of G-bands and other chromosome attributes. There were no unintended losses in a group (n = 142) with no sonographic abnormality, except for one death in utero at 38 weeks, 20 weeks after sampling. Chromosomal aberrations were seen in 19 per cent of cases with abnormal sonograms (n = 58). One case of a discordant karyotype was found (false-negative prediction of Down's syndrome by the short-term preparation). There were no cases of fetal demise due to feto-maternal bleeding. It is suggested that double-needle TA-CVS in advanced pregnancies combines the advantages of rapid karyotyping of chromosomes of good quality and low risk for the fetus, and seems to be easier to practise and is probably safer than cordocentesis.     

Chorionic villus culture for prenatal diagnosis of chromosome defects: Reduction of the long-term cultivation time

We report in detail two series of chorionic villus cultivation for prenatal chromosomal diagnosis. Chorionic villi were sampled from both first- and second-trimester pregnancies. One hundred cultures were treated with trypsin–EDTA for 2 h and collagenase overnight, (method A) and 100 were treated with trypsin–EDTA for 1 h and collagenase for 2 h (method B). Using short-term enzymatic digestion, the cultivation time was reduced from 14 days to 6 days. Sufficient amounts of metaphases of good quality were present in 93 per cent of primary cultures harvested in situ, whereas enough metaphases of sufficiently good quality were in most cases present only after subcultivation of the cultures using method A. The decrease in cultivation time obtained is probably due to a higher yield of viable cells in monocellular suspension, an increased attachment efficiency, and a more rapid attachment of single cells (within 24 h).     

Prenatal diagnosis of medium-chain acyl-CoA dehydrogenase (MCAD) deficiency in a family with a previous fatal case of sudden unexpected death in childhood

Medium-chain acyl-CoA dehydrogenase (MCAD) deficiency is a potentially fatal inherited disease with a carrier frequency of approximately 1:100 in most Caucasian populations. The disease is implicated in sudden unexpected death in childhood. A prevalent disease-causing point mutation (A985G) in the MCAD gene has been characterized, thus rendering diagnosis easy in the majority of cases. Since the clinical spectrum of MCAD deficiency ranges from death in the first days of life to an asymptomatic life, there are probably other genetic factors—in addition to MCAD mutations—involved in the expression of the disease. Thus, families who have experienced the death of a child from MCAD deficiency might have an increased risk of a seriously affected subsequent child. In such a family we have therefore performed a prenatal diagnosis on a chorionic villus sample by a highly specific and sensitive polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay for the G985 mutation. The analysis was positive and resulted in abortion. We verified the diagnosis by direct analysis on blood spots and other tissue material from the aborted fetus and from family members.     

A radical public administration? Green radicalism and policy influence among local environmental officials in Sweden

Green radicalism among local environmental officials in Sweden is examined with the aims of theoretically elaborating on different dimensions of Green radicalism in the context of public administration, exploring the dimensionality of Green radicalism among officials, and examining the extent to which Green radicalism is associated with policy influence. Three types of Green radicalism are identified: Green ethics, Green institutional change, and Green activism. Survey data (N = 701) show that the three theoretical dimensions are present among officials, and that there is no negative association between radicalism and influence. It is primarily officials with Green activism beliefs who perceive themselves as able to influence policy. These findings suggest a need for more nuanced understanding of and further studies into the role of public administration in the quest for more radical Green reforms.