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This paper describes a method that minimizes the mean squared error (MSE) in estimating the spherical harmonic components of the surface air temperature field. The ratio of the MSE to the variance of the spherical harmonic component is expressed in terms of the length scale λ0, and the positions and weights of the measurement stations. The weights are optimized by the condition of minimizing the sampling error. To present an analytical example, we assume the homogeneous statistics of the temperature anomaly field, and take the low frequency approximation (i.e. ignoring the time dependence). The spectra of the temperature anomaly are the coefficients of a Fourier–Legendre series of the covariance function, and they are analytically derived from a linear noise forced energy balance climate model. Consequently, the MSE, the percentage sampling error, and the signal–noise ratio are computed for a given network of stations. Our results show that: (i) the sampling errors computed from both optimal weights and uniform weights increase with respect to the order of the spherical harmonic component; (ii) the sampling errors computed from optimal weights are significantly smaller than those from uniform weights for sufficiently dense networks. With about 60 reasonably positioned stations for sampling the spherical harmonic components 00 T10 and T11, one can get the sampling error below 10 per cent when the optimal weights are applied. An experiment with 210 stations produces the sampling errors of less than 10 per cent for the spherical harmonic components from T00 up to T54  相似文献   
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A transactional approach was used to examine responses to dining and living rooms. In experiment 1, 19 subjects evaluated a sample of 37 rooms on nine scales and ranked ordered the scales as to difficulty of application. A factor analysis yielded three room categories: Decorative; Stylish; and Familiar. Subjects found it easier to make affective rather than cognitive judgments. Experiment 2 examined the effects of relative involvement on responses to the three categories of rooms. Stimulus materials included two matched sets (A and B) of 12 rooms (four from each category) and a detail from each (e.g. a lamp). Twenty-four male and 24 female subjects viewed the 12 rooms (set A or set B) and rated each one on six 7-point scales, wrote brief imaginative accounts of an episode which might take place in each room, and performed a recognition task for details of the rooms. Subjects did the scale ratings either before or after writing the narrative accounts, and wrote each narrative either from first or third person perspectives in a within-subjects design. The desire to live in a room was best predicted by perceived beauty and personal involvement. Involvement was fostered by rating the rooms before writing the stories and by a first person perspective. Familiar rooms were preferred most, while Decorative rooms were seen as most informative about the person.  相似文献   
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The ocean provides food, economic activity, and cultural value for a large proportion of humanity. Our knowledge of marine ecosystems lags behind that of terrestrial ecosystems, limiting effective protection of marine resources. We describe the outcome of 2 workshops in 2011 and 2012 to establish a list of important questions, which, if answered, would substantially improve our ability to conserve and manage the world's marine resources. Participants included individuals from academia, government, and nongovernment organizations with broad experience across disciplines, marine ecosystems, and countries that vary in levels of development. Contributors from the fields of science, conservation, industry, and government submitted questions to our workshops, which we distilled into a list of priority research questions. Through this process, we identified 71 key questions. We grouped these into 8 subject categories, each pertaining to a broad component of marine conservation: fisheries, climate change, other anthropogenic threats, ecosystems, marine citizenship, policy, societal and cultural considerations, and scientific enterprise. Our questions address many issues that are specific to marine conservation, and will serve as a road map to funders and researchers to develop programs that can greatly benefit marine conservation. Setenta y Un Preguntas Importantes para la Conservación de la Biodiversidad Marina  相似文献   
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It is a vexing problem to achieve a consensus about the proper scientific way to assess population viability for habitat conservation plans. Rather than a hypothesis-testing approach, here it is proposed to select population models, estimate extinction parameters, and assess prediction uncertainty using a pragmatic, empirical Bayesian approach. The simplest usable models include the effects of population growth, r; carrying capacity, K; Allee threshold, N(A); and environmental stochasticity, v(r). Analytic predictions of expected extinction times are available for such models. Models that are more complex can be elaborated from this basis. Selection from a hierarchy of nesting population models can often be done through the evaluation of parameters. The estimation of the most important extinction parameters can be undertaken in a variety of ways. Time series can be analyzed to estimate r(d), v(r), rho, and K. Habitat models and individualistic population models may help estimate N(A) and K and demographic stochasticity. Fine-scale biogeography and climatological data may be useful in the estimation of a variety of parameters. Because it takes many years to estimate extinction parameters accurately for a given population of interest, the most efficient estimation procedures are desirable. I propose the use of prior information from an (as yet nonexistent) population biology database. The accumulation of local information through monitoring will improve our estimates allowing adaptive management. Uncertainty in the estimates will always remain, but it may be quantified by the posterior distributions. A crude example is discussed using treefrog population data. Although the motivations, beliefs, and biases of competing stakeholders will differ, a habitat conservation plan could accommodate this variation in the prior distributions. Field experience from monitoring will increasingly clear up any discrepancies between the opposing beliefs and the real ecosystem. As the world is an uncertain place and because there is no universal scientific method, there will always be controversy and surprises. The best we can do is (1) agree about our prior information, (2) agree about the strategy of model selection and parameter estimation, and (3) agree about our strategy for adaptive management. Perhaps the greatest impediment to such prior agreements for HCPs is the likely paranoia inspired by the use of unfamiliar statistical methodology. We need to train students of ecology in a more flexible and deeper understanding of statistics and philosophy of science.  相似文献   
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Abstract:  Endemism is thought to be relatively rare in marine systems due to the lack of allopatric barriers and the potential for long-distance colonization via pelagic larval dispersal. Although many species of coral reef fishes exhibit regionally restricted color variants that are suggestive of regional endemism, such variation is typically ascribed to intraspecific variation. We examined the genetic structure in 5 putatively monospecific fishes from the Indo-West Pacific ( Amphiprion melanopus , Chrysiptera talboti , and Pomacentrus moluccensis [Pomacentridae] and Cirrhilabrus punctatus , and Labroides dimidiatus [Labridae]) that express regional color variation unique to this area. Mitochondrial-control-region sequence analysis showed shallow to deep genetic divergence in all 5 species (sequence divergence 2–17%), with clades concordant with regional color variation. These results were partially supported by nuclear RAG2 data. An analysis of molecular variation (AMOVA) mirrored the phylogenetic results; ΦST values ranged from 0.91 to 0.7, indicating high levels of geographic partitioning of genetic variation. Concordance of genetics and phenotype demonstrate the genetic uniqueness of southwestern Pacific color variants, indicating that these populations are at a minimum distinct evolutionarily significant units and perhaps distinct regionally endemic species. Our results indicate that the alpha biodiversity of the southwestern Pacific is likely underestimated even in well-studied groups, such as reef fishes, and that regional endemism may be more common in tropical marine systems than previously thought.  相似文献   
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The substitution of coal for charcoal in domestic use in Dakar and Dar es Salaam is not immediately feasible for technical, social and economic reasons. In the event of severe charcoal shortages, coal is the only large-scale substitute likely to be available and research should be carried out to ensure that the problems of its use and distribution are solved in advance. Coal, bottled gas, improvements in stove efficiency and charcoal manufacture are unlikely to ease the pressure on free-good wood resources unless they are associated with effective ceilings on wood exploitation. The production of charcoal for urban use should become a commercial responsibility linked with rural wood lot planting and exploitation. La substitution du charbon à la place du charbon de bois pour les usages domestiques à Dakar et à Dar es Salaam n'est pas possible dans l'immédiat pour des raisons techniques, sociales et économiques. Dans le cas de pénuries aigues en charbon de bois, le charbon est l'unique combustible de remplacement qui serait disponible sur une grande échelle et des recherches devraient être entreprises afin de s'assurer que les problèmes concernant son utilisation et sa répartition soient résolus d'avance. Le charbon, le gaz en bouteille, les améliorations dans le rendement des fourneaux et dans la fabrication du charbon de bois ne soulageront sans doute pas la pression exercée sur les ressources gratuites en bois à moins que celles-ci ne soient limitées par des plafonds concernant l'exploitation du bois. La production du charbon de bois pour les utilisations urbaines devrait être commercialement liée à un programme de plantation et d'exploitation parcellaires rurales. La substitución de carbón vegetal por carbón mineral para uso doméstico en Dakar y Dar es Salaam no es factible en forma immediata debido a razones técnicas, sociales y económicas. En caso de una escasez severa de carbón vegetal el único substituto que puede estar disponsible es el carbón mineral; en consecuencia debe investigarse para asegurar que los problemas de su uso y distribución sean resueltos con anticipación. El carbón mineral, el gas embotellado, y las mejoras en la eficiencia de las cocinas y en la fabricación del carbón vegetal tienen poca probabilidad de disminuir la demanda de un bien gratuito como es la leña a menos que esten asociados a una limitación efectiva de la explotación de los bosques. La producción del carbón vegetal para uso urbano debe ser una responsabilidad comercial ligada a la reforestación y explotación de bosques.  相似文献   
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Significant distinctions that exist between crude oil and natural gas compel that separate terms for gas be included in petroleum agreements. Fiscal terms, production shares and cost recovery are, like oil, important economic considerations in gas agreements. However, unlike oil agreements, other economic terms will also need to receive attention because gas agreements need to give explicit recognition to the process for commercializing the gas discovery.  相似文献   
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