Outcomes of Collaborative Water Policy Making: Applying Complexity Thinking to Evaluation

Collaborative policy making has become increasingly significant in environmental management, but it is often evaluated by whether or not agreement is reached and implemented. The most important outcomes of such policy dialogues are often invisible or undervalued when seen through the lens of a traditional, modernist paradigm of government and accountability. These dialogues represent a new paradigm of governance that can be best understood in the light of a complex adaptive system model of society. From this perspective collaborative policy making is a way of making a system more flexible, adaptive and intelligent. The authors document such outcomes in three cases of water policy making in California, including the San Francisco Estuary Project, the CALFED Bay-Delta Program and the Sacramento Area Water Forum. The outcomes include social and political capital, agreed-on information, the end of stalemates, high-quality agreements, learning and change, innovation and new practices involving networks and flexibility.     

Climatic sensitivity of temperate forests

Climatic change and associated global changes are of major interest to foresters, both in terms of forest ecology and of future forest production. Predicting the likely effects of global change on forests is extremely difficult due to the critical lack of information on regional changes in meteorological factors relevant to forests. However, existing models of forest production and forest distribution fail to take adequate account of what is already known. Climate and carbon dioxide concentrations have shown substantial changes over the last 100 years. Although the rate of change is likely to increase, recent proposed and implemented control strategies, together with better climatic models, are tending to suggest that the rate of change will be less than initially thought. This means that past changes may provide an increasingly useful source of information. In particular, information on the impact on forests of both long-term climate change and short-term climatic events is rapidly increasing. Such information should be built into future forest response models.     

Population structure of yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) in the western Pacific Ocean, inferred from microsatellite loci

Five polymorphic microsatellite loci were examined in 1391 yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) from eight regions of the western (Coral Sea, eastern Australia, Fiji, Indonesia, Philippines and Solomon Islands) and eastern (California and Mexico ) Pacific Ocean. Across all samples, numbers of alleles per locus ranged from 7 to 30 (mean: 17.0), and observed heterozygosities per locus ranged from 0.223 to 0.955 (mean: 0.593). Temporal collections were available for three areas: no significant temporal heterogeneity was observed for the Coral Sea (1991/1992 and 1995/1996 collections) or eastern Australia (1994/1995, 1995/1996, 1996/1997 and 1997/1998), but there was slight but significant heterogeneity at one locus (cmrTa-161) between the two Philippines collections (1994/1995 and 1996/1997). Genotypes generally showed a good fit to Hardy-Weinberg expectations within populations; only cmrTa-208 in the pooled Coral Sea population gave a significant deviation after Bonferroni correction for 40 tests, with a small but significant excess of homozygotes. Four loci showed no evidence of population differentiation following contingency Chi-squared and F_ST analyses. The fifth locus, cmrTa-161, showed small but significant differentiation (F_ST=0.002, P<0.001). This heterogeneity was largely a result of the Philippines 1994/1995 and Fiji collections; there was no correlation with geographic distance. The average F_ST across all five loci was very low (F_ST=0.002), but it was significant (P<0.001). It is unclear whether this low but significant differentiation reflects noise in the dataset, perhaps arising from experimental error, or real population differentiation. The finding of very limited population heterogeneity accords with most of the earlier allozyme and mitochondrial DNA studies of yellowfin tuna in the Pacific Ocean.     

Job involvement as a moderator variable in the life events stress–illness relationship

It is hypothesized that the relationship between life events and reported symptoms of psychological and physical illness is moderated by the extent to which a person is job-involved. Analysis of the data in a sample of employed men shows large correlations between a measure of life events and reported symptoms for men with low job involvement, substantially higher than where the men are highly job-involved.     

Monitoring and information reporting for sustainable forest management: a regional comparison of forestry stakeholder perceptions

Since the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) [1992, Agenda 21: programme of action for sustainable development. United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED), 3-14 June 1992. Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 294pp.], the management of information has become central to the management of forest resources. In the cases of North America and Europe, similar issues have been challenging policy makers as they determine the information suitable for monitoring progress towards sustainable forest management (SFM). Using an 'online' survey, this research explored multiple stakeholder perspectives on monitoring and information reporting for SFM in different jurisdictions. The research was based on the premise that an analysis of the variation in stakeholder observations across a range of SFM 'issue areas' could provide valuable insight into the perceived need for SFM-related monitoring and information reporting in the regions of Europe, Canada and the USA. Despite the traditional limitations associated with exploratory survey research, the results indicate a demand for more information on SFM-related issues. The results also highlight the degree to which the perceptions of a sample of stakeholders can differ between Europe, USA and Canada. While these results cannot be generalized beyond the present study, they do suggest that further studies are needed to understand stakeholder perspectives on forestry-related monitoring and information reporting in different jurisdictions.     

Forest health surveys--a critique

Surveys of forest health, as presently undertaken, provide information on the general condition of forests. They integrate the effects of all factors, biotic and abiotic, of which pollution is but one, that affect trees. Most surveys are based on the assessment of crown density and crown discoloration. These assessments are subjective and serious errors can occur. In some cases, the sampling design that has been adopted is not the most suitable for the forest area under investigation. The blanket application of a systematic sampling design based on a 16 by 16 km grid is particularly questionable in view of the variation in the nature of Europe's forests. Comparisons, either between regions or through time, may or may not be valid, depending on how the surveys are conducted. Although much progress has been made, standardisation within Europe has not yet been achieved and it is therefore difficult to make comparisons between the results obtained by different countries.     

Quantitative genetic analysis of growth in larval scallops (Placopecten magellanicus)

We estimated the broad-sense heritability of larval size in 20 full-sib families of the giant scallop, Placopecten magellanicus (Gmelin, 1791) grown in laboratory culture in August and September 1991. The goal was to compare scallops with other bivalves which have been shown to have significant heritabilities for larval growth. Secondly, we estimated the lipid content of occytes from female parents, since this is hypothesized to affect larval growth and survival. Finally, we estimated the among-family variation in mortality from 4 to 21 d as a test of possible genetic variation for viability among larval scallops. Significant genetic variation (h²=1.10 to 1.24) was estimated for larval shell length at 4, 14, and 21 d. There was a significant correlation (r=0.66) between larval size at 4 d and lipid content of oocytes, but only when two females with high levels of lipid oocyte^–1 were excluded as outliers. There was no correlation between larval size at 14 and 21 d and lipid content of oocytes. Mortality among families from 4 to 21 d was high (69 to 97%), and was significantly different among families. These results indicate that there is significant heritability for larval growth which is largely independent of the lipid content of the oocytes. A high heritability for larval growth may indicate that this trait is only weakly correlated with fitness.     

Genetic structure of asexually reproducing Enteromorpha linza (Ulvales: Chlorophyta) in Long Island Sound

Heterotrophic bacterial uptake and turnover of glycolate were measured in the water column of the New York Bight apex during four seasonal cruises over almost a one-year period between May 1977 and March 1978. Glycolate turnover was most rapid in May and July, when primary productivity and estuarine runoff were high. Extremely rapid glycolate turnover times (<1 h) were detected at some stations during these months. Increased bacterial glycolate tunover did not accompany increased primary productivity in March, when water temperatures were lowest. Glycolate flux calculations indicate that the measured rates of glycolate consumption by bacteria always exceeded estimated glycolate production by phytoplankton, except in March. This excess may reflect an underestimation of phytoplankton production or the input of glycolate from other sources, such as estuarine runoff. Glycolate utilization appears to be seasonally important to bacteria in the New York Bight apex, coinciding with fluctuations in phytoplankton primary productivity.     

Reproductive isolation and reproductive output in two sympatric mussel species (Mytilus edulis, M. trossulus) and their hybrids from Newfoundland

The mussels Mytilus edulis L. and M. trossulus Gould are found sympatrically in most areas of Newfoundland, with a low frequency of hybrids. To assess the potential for reproductive isolation, we sampled mussels from three sites in an eastern Newfoundland Bay from May–October 1996 to determine if there were differences in the reproductive cycles of the two species and their natural hybrids. In mussels with sheil lengths of 38–42 mm, males and females with mature gametes were dominant in June for M. edulis and hybrids, while M. trossulus showed a lower frequency of individuals with mature gametes. M. trossulus and hybrids spawned over a prolonged period (from late spring to early autumn) compared with most M. edulis individuals that spawned over a period of 2–3 weeks in July. This asynchrony in spawning activity between the two species may partially explain the low frequency of hybrids found in previous studies of these mussel populations. Female and male hybrids between M. edulis and M. trossulus showed normal gonad development, ripening and spawning, providing an opportunity for the introgression of genes between the two species. M. trossulus had a higher reproductive output than M. edulis of similar shell length, while hybrids showed intermediate values of reproductive output. M. trossulus females produced smaller eggs than either M. edulis or hybrids. Differences in reproductive traits may partially explain the maintenance of the mussel hybrid zone in Newfoundland. Published online: 13 August 2002     

Air pollution and forest decline in Central Europe

The term 'Waldsterben' was introduced in the early 1980s to describe the progressive death of forests that was believed to be occurring in Central Europe as a result of air pollution. Subsequent surveys and investigations have failed to confirm that forests are dying or are even declining over large areas of Central Europe, defined here as consisting of Germany, Switzerland, southeastern France (Alsace), the Czech Republic, northern Italy and Austria. Foliar injury by air pollutants, together with mortality, has occurred, but is generally restricted to specific locations in the Czech Republic and in eastern Germany, such as the Fichtelgebirge. Where foliar damage has been recorded, it can often be attributed to high concentrations of sulphur dioxide, often acting in combination with other stresses (e.g. frost or insects). Outside areas affected by local sources of pollution, there is little, if any, evidence that the crown condition of trees has been adversely affected by pollution over large areas. Instead, climate appears to have a major effect on the crown condition and growth of trees. Measurements and surveys have revealed a very different picture to that forecasted in the mid-1980s. Growth rates of trees and stands in Central Europe are currently higher than have been recorded at any time in the past; the reasons for this are uncertain, although increases in forest area have not substantially contributed to the observed trends. Although declines in individual species in specific areas have been recorded, past records indicate that these do not represent a new phenomenon. Consequently, the terms 'Waldsterben' (forest deaths) and 'neuartige Waldsch?den' (novel type of forest damages) should not be used in the context of the phenomenon reported in Central Europe in the 1980s. Instead, different problems should be described separately and the term forest decline used only when there is clear evidence of a general deterioration in the condition of all tree species within a forest.