Five Hundred Years of Hydrological Drought in the Upper Colorado River Basin1

Abstract: This article evaluates drought scenarios of the Upper Colorado River basin (UCRB) considering multiple drought variables for the past 500 years and positions the current drought in terms of the magnitude and frequency. Drought characteristics were developed considering water‐year data of UCRB’s streamflow, and basin‐wide averages of the Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (PHDI) and the Palmer Z Index. Streamflow and drought indices were reconstructed for the last 500 years using a principal component regression model based on tree‐ring data. The reconstructed streamflow showed higher variability as compared with reconstructed PHDI and reconstructed Palmer Z Index. The magnitude and severity of all droughts were obtained for the last 500 years for historical and reconstructed drought variables and ranked accordingly. The frequency of the current drought was obtained by considering two different drought frequency statistical approaches and three different methods of determining the beginning and end of the drought period (annual, 5‐year moving, and ten year moving average). It was concluded that the current drought is the worst in the observed record period (1923‐2004), but 6th to 14th largest in terms of magnitude and 1st to 12th considering severity in the past 500 years. Similarly, the current drought has a return period ranging from 37 to 103 years based on how the drought period was determined. It was concluded that if the 10‐year moving average is used for defining the drought period, the current drought appears less severe in terms of magnitude and severity in the last 500 years compared with the results using 1‐ and 5‐year averages.     

Evaluations of a sacred place: Role and religious belief at the Magh Mela

People perceive places differently because of the different material, social, and symbolic aspects of the locations and because individuals have different backgrounds and different reasons for being at the locations. Two studies examined how role and religious beliefs affect perceptions of the environment at the Magh Mela, an annual religious festival at the confluence of the Ganges and Yamuna Rivers in north India. In the first study (n=375), we interviewed individuals who were at the Mela for one of six reasons (religious pilgrims, sweepers, boatmen, police, businessmen, or student volunteers) about their religious beliefs and their perceptions of the Mela. Results indicated that the evaluations of pilgrims, who were at the Mela for religious reasons, were associated with evaluations of physical amenities and religious social support, whereas the other five groups, who were at the Mela primarily for nonreligious purposes, evaluated the Mela on the basis of material characteristics only. In the second study (n=311), we found that religious leaders’ evaluations of the Mela were affected by material characteristics, religious social support, and intrinsic religious belief.