SELECTING TREND TESTS FOR WATER QUALITY SERIES WITH SERIAL CORRELATION AND MISSING VALUES1

ABSTRACT: The use of nonparametric tests for monotonic trend has flourished in recent years to support routine water quality data analyses. The validity of an assumption of independent, identically distributed error terms is an important concern in selecting the appropriate nonparametric test, as is the presence of missing values. Decision rules are needed for choosing between alternative tests and for deciding whether and how to pre-process data before trend testing. Several data pre-processing procedures in conjunction with the Mann-Kendall tau and the Seasonal Kendall test (with and without serial correlation correction) are evaluated using synthetic time series with generated serial correlation and missing data. A composite test (pre-testing for serial correlation followed by one of two trend tests) is evaluated and was found to perform satisfactorily.     

Floristics, performance and prognosis of historical trees in the urban forest of Guangzhou City (China)

Outstanding historical trees embedded in cities constitute pertinent environmental assets, yet they are widely threatened in third-world cities. Inadequate understanding of this valuable natural-cum-cultural heritage hinders proper conservation. A case study of Guangzhou in south China evaluated floristic composition, age profile and biomass structure of historical trees, assessed their performance in major habitats (institutional, park and roadside), and established a prognosis for future growth and management. The 348 historical trees examined belonged to only 25 species, vis-à -vis 254 trees in the entire urban forest, dominated by five species and native members. Roadside had more trees, followed by institutional and park, with merely the most common four species shared by all habitats. The limited commonality reflected tree-performance differentiation by habitats exerting selection pressure on species. The institutional growth-regime was more conducive to nurturing high-caliber specimens, whereas park is less capable. Individual species achievement by habitats, derived from tree-count ranking and relative-abundance indices, could inform species choice and tree conservation. Few trees exceeded 300 years of age in the millennium-old city, echoing a history of intense tree—city conflicts. Potential life-span, trunk and crown diameters indicated ample opportunities for further expansion of biomass and landscape impacts, which would be straitjacketed by the tightening urban fabric.     

Paleolimnological assessment of Grove and Plow Shop Ponds, Ayer, Massachusetts, USA--a superfund site

Three sediment cores from each of severely polluted Grove and Plow Shop Ponds, Ayer, Massachusetts, USA, were dated using (210)Pb, characterized for plant macrofossil assemblages, and analyzed for H(2)O, loss-on-ignition, stable Pb isotopes, and concentrations of As, Ca, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Hg, methyl-Hg, Ni, Pb, and Zn. A core from nearby kettle Spectacle Pond, Littleton, Massachusetts, was similarly characterized (except for plant macrofossil assemblages) to assess the regional air pollution signal in sediment for comparison with the six cores. Accumulation rates for metals (mass per area per year), the anthropogenic component (mass per area per year), and total accumulation of the anthropogenic component (mass per area) indicate that As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, methyl-Hg, Ni, Pb, and Zn have accumulated in sediment as a consequence of point source pollution from within the drainage basins of Grove and Plow Shop Ponds. Three distinct sources of pollution are inferred. As is entering Plow Shop Pond via groundwater in the southwest. Cd, Ni, Pb, and Zn are entering the system predominantly at the eastern end of, or upstream from, Grove Pond. Pb also comes from the northwest corner of Grove Pond, the principal source of Cr, Cu, and Hg. These results are consistent with chemistry of modern surface sediments. The history of pollution extends back more than 100 years. Intra- and inter-core variability of concentrations and accumulation rates indicate that much of the pollution was likely in particulate form with little physical redistribution. Recently, concentrations and accumulation rates have generally decreased substantially for those elements present in excessive concentrations in the past. This is a consequence of accumulation of recent, less polluted sediment. In Spectacle Pond, the nearby reference lake, accumulation rates for As, Cd, Hg, and Pb, adjusted for background values and changes in sedimentation rate, increased above background starting in the late 19th century, peaked about 1980, and declined substantially to 2000. These decreases suggest that the anthropogenic (pollution) component of atmospheric deposition of these elements declined after 1980 by at least 50%(As), 80%(Cd), 80%(Hg), and 80%(Pb).     

Interlaboratory evaluation of endotoxin analyses in agricultural dusts--comparison of LAL assay and mass spectrometry

Endotoxin exposure is associated with wheeze and asthma morbidity, while early life exposure may reduce risk of allergy and asthma. Unfortunately, it is difficult to compare endotoxin results from different laboratories and environments. We undertook this study to determine if lipopolysaccharide (LPS) extraction efficiency could account for differences among laboratories. We generated and collected aerosols from chicken and swine barns, and corn processing. We randomly allocated side-by-side filter samples to five laboratories for Limulus assay of endotoxin. Lyophilized aliquots of filter extracts were analyzed for 3-hydroxy fatty acids (3-OHFAs) as a marker of LPS using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. There were significant differences in endotoxin assay and GC-MS (LPS) results between laboratories for all dust types (p < 0.01). Patterns of differences between labs varied by dust type. Relationships between assay and GC/MS results also depended on dust type. The percentages of individual 3-OHFA chain lengths varied across labs (p < 0.0001) suggesting that each lab recovered a different fraction of the LPS available. The presence of large amounts of particle associated LPS and absence of a freezing thawing cycle were associated with lower correlations between LPS and bioactivity, consistent with an absence of Limulus response to cell-bound endotoxin. These data suggest that extraction methods affect endotoxin measurements. The LAL methods may be most suitable when comparing exposures within similar environments; GC-MS offers additional information helpful in optimizing sample treatment and extraction. GC-MS may be of use when comparing across heterogeneous environments and should be considered for inclusion in future studies of human health outcomes.     

Trends in motor-vehicle related air pollutants in central London

Results of intermittent monitoring of six aromatic hydrocarbons (benzene, toluene, ethyl-benzene, m-xylene, p-xylene and o-xylene), carbon monoxide and oxides of nitrogen over a thirteen year period at a site in central London (Exhibition Road) are presented. Four monitoring regimes were undertaken; namely, 1979, 1982/83, 1986/87 and 1991/92. The summertime daytime mean ambient concentrations of the measured parameters at this site are presented. The reported concentrations show a reduction from 1979 to 1992 by approximately a factor of two, despite national increases in motor fuel consumption and the volume of traffic. Relevant European Community legislation covering emissions from motor-vehicles are outlined and comparisons are made with emissions from motor vehicles predicted from the UK national inventory. The importance of the frequency of measurements was also noted.     

空气污染与儿童呼吸系统患病率的相关分析

 在流行病学调查和空气污染物监测的基础上，研究讨论了儿童呼吸系统患病率与空气污染之间的相关关系，结果表明，空气中细颗粒物（PM_2.5）和可吸入颗粒物（PM₁₀）与儿童呼吸系统患病率呈线性正相关关系，其影响比SO₂、Nox更密切．哮喘明显受颗粒物、SO₂、Nox的综合作用的影响．未感冒咳嗽发生率明显受细颗粒物和Nox污染综合作用的影响．     

莫桑比克伊尼亚卡岛的珊瑚礁生长:珊瑚群落与1999/2000年南部非洲洪水对其造成的影响

引言 在过去几十年中进行的调查工作使我们对低纬度珊瑚礁的生长有了较清楚的认识.生长在这些环境(往往在温度、盐度和光照方面处于理想的条件下)中的珊瑚虫能够形成在空间上非常重要的珊瑚礁结构.在清澈的水体中,水下100m多的地方都有珊瑚生长[1,2],但据报道,在较浅的地方,碳酸盐净累积速度为0.83～0.91kg CaCO3/m2@a[3,4].