Impact analysis of drought, water excess and salinity on grass production in The Netherlands using historical and future climate data

The coupled SWAP-WOFOST model was used to study the effects of increasing salinity of groundwater, drought and water excess on grass production in The Netherlands. WOFOST simulates crop growth and SWAP simulates transport of water, solutes and heat in the vadose zone. The model was tested using several datasets from field experiments. We applied the models at regional scale where we quantified the impact of various groundwater salinity levels on grass growth and production using historical weather data (1971-2000). The salt concentrations in the subsoil were derived from the National Hydrological Instrument. The results show that salinity effects on grass production are limited. In wet years the excess rainfall will infiltrate the soil and reduce salt water seepage. In a next step we used future weather data for the year 2050, derived from 3 Global Circulation Models. From each model we used data from two CO₂ emission scenarios. As expected higher temperatures increased drought stress, however, the production reduction as a result of salt water in the root zone is limited. Salt stress mainly occurred when irrigation was applied with saline water. The increased CO₂ concentration in combination with the limited drought stress resulted in increasing simulated actual and potential yields. Overall conclusion for grassland in The Netherlands: drought stress is stronger than stress caused by water excess which on its turn is stronger than salinity stress. Future water demand for irrigation may increase by 11-19% and result in water scarcity if water supply is insufficient.     

Climate change impacts on the leaching of a heavy metal contamination in a small lowland catchment

The Keersop catchment (43km(2)) in the south of The Netherlands has been contaminated by the emissions of four zinc ore smelters. The objective of this study was to assess the effects of future projected climate change on the hydrology and the leaching of heavy metals (i.e. Cd and Zn) in the catchment. The numerical, quasi-2D, unsaturated zone Soil Water Atmosphere Plant model was used with 100-year simulated daily time series of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. The time series are representative of stationary climates for the periods 1961-1990 ("baseline") and 2071-2100 ("future"). The time series of future climate were obtained by downscaling the results of eight regional climate model (RCM) experiments, driven by the SRES A2 emissions scenario, using change factors for a series of climate statistics and applying them to stochastic weather generator models. The time series are characterized by increased precipitation in winter, less precipitation in summer, and higher air temperatures (between 2°C and 5°C) throughout the year. Future climate scenarios project higher evapotranspiration rates, more irrigation, less drainage, lower discharge rates and lower groundwater levels, due to increased evapotranspiration and a slowing down of the groundwater system. As a result, lower concentrations of Cd and Zn in surface water are projected. The reduced leaching of heavy metals, due to drying of the catchment, showed a positive impact on a limited aspect of surface water quality.     

The predictive value of short-term screening tests for carcinogenicity

Short term tests are increasingly used to detect mutagenicity and/or possible carcinogenicity. This increasing use is based on the new ideas in chemical carcinogenesis, which have led to the so-called somatic mutation theory.It is emphasized that not all carcinogens will be mutagenic per se especially since two classes of carcinogens can be distinguished, i.e. genotoxic and non-genotoxic or epigenetic carcinogens. The most commonly used short-term tests are those which detect mutagenic action, DNA damage or those which detect malignant transformation in cell cultures.Since most short-term tests lack metabolic activation a metabolic activation system is usually added to the test system. The sensitivity, the specificity and the accuracy of the different short-term test are discussed. The use of a combination of mutagenicity tests usually increases the sensitivity whereas specificity and accuracy usually decrease. The use of a battery of different short-term tests may yield better results with respect to the specificity and accuracy.     

Parvovirus B19 infection in pregnancy: new insights and management

In this article, we review the virology, pathology, epidemiology and clinical spectrum of intrauterine human parvovirus B19 (B19V) infection, including intrauterine fetal death, non-immune hydrops fetalis, thrombocytopenia and neurological manifestations such as pediatric stroke and perivascular calcifications. In addition, we discuss the new insights into the neurodevelopmental outcome of intrauterine B19V infection. Current diagnosis and management of B19V infection is summarized, including a diagnostic and follow-up flowchart for practical clinical use. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Effect of Channelization on Floodplain Sediment Deposition and Subsidence Along the Pocomoke River,Maryland1

Kroes, Daniel E. and Cliff R. Hupp, 2010. The Effect of Channelization on Floodplain Sediment Deposition and Subsidence Along the Pocomoke River, Maryland. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(4): 686-699. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00440.x Abstract: The nontidal Pocomoke River was intensively ditched and channelized by the mid-1900s. In response to channelization; channel incision, head-cut erosion, and spoil bank perforation have occurred in this previously nonalluvial system. Six sites were selected for study of floodplain sediment dynamics in relation to channel condition. Short- and long-term sediment deposition/subsidence rates and composition were determined. Short-term rates (four years) ranged from 0.6 to 3.6 mm/year. Long-term rates (15-100+ years) ranged from −11.9 to 1.7 mm/year. ¹³⁷Cs rates (43 years) indicate rates of 0.24 to 7.4 mm/year depending on channel condition. Channelization has limited contact between streamflow and the floodplain, resulting in little or no sediment retention in channelized reaches. Along unchannelized reaches, extended contact and depth of river water on the floodplain resulted in high deposition rates. Drainage of floodplains exposed organic sediments to oxygen resulting in subsidence and releasing stored carbon. Channelization increased sediment deposition in downstream reaches relative to the presettlement system. The sediment storage function of this river has been dramatically altered by channelization. Results indicate that perforation of spoil banks along channelized reaches may help to alleviate some of these issues.     

Propagation of uncertainties in soil and pesticide properties to pesticide leaching

In the new Dutch decision tree for the evaluation of pesticide leaching to groundwater, spatially distributed soil data are used by the GeoPEARL model to calculate the 90th percentile of the spatial cumulative distribution function of the leaching concentration in the area of potential usage (SP90). Until now it was not known to what extent uncertainties in soil and pesticide properties propagate to spatially aggregated parameters like the SP90. A study was performed to quantify the uncertainties in soil and pesticide properties and to analyze their contribution to the uncertainty in SP90. First, uncertainties in the soil and pesticide properties were quantified. Next, a regular grid sample of points covering the whole of the agricultural area in the Netherlands was randomly selected. At the grid nodes, realizations from the probability distributions of the uncertain inputs were generated and used as input to a Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation analysis. The analysis showed that the uncertainty concerning the SP90 is 10 times smaller than the uncertainty about the leaching concentration at individual point locations. The parameters that contribute most to the uncertainty about the SP90 are, however, the same as the parameters that contribute most to uncertainty about the leaching concentration at individual point locations (e.g., the transformation half-life in soil and the coefficient of sorption on organic matter). Taking uncertainties in soil and pesticide properties into account further leads to a systematic increase of the predicted SP90. The important implication for pesticide regulation is that the leaching concentration is systematically underestimated when these uncertainties are ignored.