Integrated BIosphere Simulator (IBIS) yield and nitrate loss predictions for Wisconsin maize receiving varied amounts of nitrogen fertilizer

Agriculture in the U.S. Midwest faces the formidable challenge of improving crop productivity while simultaneously mitigating the environmental consequences of intense management. This study examined the simultaneous response of nitrate nitrogen (NO3-N) leaching losses and maize (Zea mays L.) yield to varied fertilizer N management using field observations and the Integrated BIosphere Simulator (IBIS) model. The model was validated against six years of field observations in chisel-plowed maize plots receiving an optimal (180 kg N ha(-1)) fertilizer N application and in N-unfertilized plots on a silt loam soil near Arlington, Wisconsin. Predicted values of grain yield, harvest index, plant N uptake, residue C to N ratio, leaf area index (LAI), grain N, and drainage were within 20% of observations. However, simulated NO3-N leaching losses, NO3-N concentrations, and net N mineralization exhibited less interannual variability than observations, and had higher levels of error (20-65%). Potential effects of 30% higher (234 kg N ha(-1)) and 30% lower (126 kg N ha(-1)) fertilizer N use (from optimal) on NO3-N leaching loss and maize yield were simulated. A 30% increase in fertilizer N use increased annual NO3-N leaching by 56%, while yield increased by only 1%. The NO3-N concentration in the leachate solution at 1.4 m below the soil surface was 30.7 mg L(-1). When fertilizer N use was reduced by 30% (from optimal), annual NO3-N leaching losses declined by 42% after seven years, and annual average yield only decreased by 8%. However, NO3-N concentration in the leachate solution remained above 10 mg L(-1) (11.3 mg L(-1)). Clearly, nonlinear relationships existed between changes in fertilizer use and NO3-N leaching losses over time. Simulated changes in NO3-N leaching were greater in magnitude than fertilizer N use changes.     

Impact of climate change and seasonal trends on the fate of Arctic oil spills

We investigated the effects of a warmer climate, and seasonal trends, on the fate of oil spilled in the Arctic. Three well blowout scenarios, two shipping accidents and a pipeline rupture were considered. We used ensembles of numerical simulations, using the OSCAR oil spill model, with environmental data for the periods 2009–2012 and 2050–2053 (representing a warmer future) as inputs to the model. Future atmospheric forcing was based on the IPCC’s A1B scenario, with the ocean data generated by the hydrodynamic model SINMOD. We found differences in “typical” outcome of a spill in a warmer future compared to the present, mainly due to a longer season of open water. We have demonstrated that ice cover is extremely important for predicting the fate of an Arctic oil spill, and find that oil spills in a warming climate will in some cases result in greater areal coverage and shoreline exposure.     

Oil spill response capabilities and technologies for ice-covered Arctic marine waters: A review of recent developments and established practices

Renewed political and commercial interest in the resources of the Arctic, the reduction in the extent and thickness of sea ice, and the recent failings that led to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, have prompted industry and its regulatory agencies, governments, local communities and NGOs to look at all aspects of Arctic oil spill countermeasures with fresh eyes. This paper provides an overview of present oil spill response capabilities and technologies for ice-covered waters, as well as under potential future conditions driven by a changing climate. Though not an exhaustive review, we provide the key research results for oil spill response from knowledge accumulated over many decades, including significant review papers that have been prepared as well as results from recent laboratory tests, field programmes and modelling work. The three main areas covered by the review are as follows: oil weathering and modelling; oil detection and monitoring; and oil spill response techniques.