A heuristic expert system for forest fire guidance in Greece

Forests and forestlands are common inheritance for all Greeks and a piece of the national wealth that must be handed over to the next generations in the best possible condition. After 1974, Greece faces a severe forest fire problem and forest fire forecasting is the process that will enable the Greek ministry of Agriculture to reduce the destruction. This paper describes the basic design principles of an Expert System that performs forest fire forecasting (for the following fire season) and classification of the prefectures of Greece into forest fire risk zones. The Expert system handles uncertainty and uses heuristics in order to produce scenarios based on the presence or absence of various qualitative factors. The initial research focused on the construction of a mathematical model which attempted to describe the annual number of forest fires and burnt area in Greece based on historical data. However this has proven to be impossible using regression analysis and time series. A closer analysis of the fire data revealed that two qualitative factors dramatically affect the number of forest fires and the hectares of burnt areas annually. The first is political stability and national elections and the other is drought cycles. Heuristics were constructed that use political stability and drought cycles, to provide forest fire guidance. Fuzzy logic was applied to produce a fuzzy expected interval for each prefecture of Greece. A fuzzy expected interval is a narrow interval of values that best describes the situation in the country or a part of the country for a certain time period. A successful classification of the prefectures of Greece in forest fire risk zones was done by the system, by comparing the fuzzy expected intervals to each other. The system was tested for the years 1994 and 1995. The testing has clearly shown that the system can predict accurately, the number of forest fires for each prefecture for the following year. The average accuracy was as high as 85.25% for 1995 and 80.89% for 1994. This makes the Expert System a very important tool for forest fire prevention planning.     

Cross-sectional biomonitoring study of pesticide exposures in Queensland,Australia, using pooled urine samples

A range of pesticides are available in Australia for use in agricultural and domestic settings to control pests, including organophosphate and pyrethroid insecticides, herbicides, and insect repellents, such as N,N-diethyl-meta-toluamide (DEET). The aim of this study was to provide a cost-effective preliminary assessment of background exposure to a range of pesticides among a convenience sample of Australian residents. De-identified urine specimens stratified by age and sex were obtained from a community-based pathology laboratory and pooled (n = 24 pools of 100 specimens). Concentrations of urinary pesticide biomarkers were quantified using solid-phase extraction coupled with isotope dilution high-performance liquid chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry. Geometric mean biomarker concentrations ranged from <0.1 to 36.8 ng/mL for organophosphate insecticides, <0.1 to 5.5 ng/mL for pyrethroid insecticides, and <0.1 to 8.51 ng/mL for all other biomarkers with the exception of the DEET metabolite 3-diethylcarbamoyl benzoic acid (4.23 to 850 ng/mL). We observed no association between age and concentration for most biomarkers measured but noted a “U-shaped” trend for five organophosphate metabolites, with the highest concentrations observed in the youngest and oldest age strata, perhaps related to age-specific differences in behavior or physiology. The fact that concentrations of specific and non-specific metabolites of the organophosphate insecticide chlorpyrifos were higher than reported in USA and Canada may relate to differences in registered applications among countries. Additional biomonitoring programs of the general population and focusing on vulnerable populations would improve the exposure assessment and the monitoring of temporal exposure trends as usage patterns of pesticide products in Australia change over time.     

Cytogenetic diagnoses after chorionic villus sampling are less reliable in very-high- or very-low-risk pregnancies

An increasing number of cytogenetic prenatal diagnoses are performed on chorionic villus samplings. The accuracy of this method is influenced by chromosomal mosaicism, mostly confined to direct preparation methods. Especially those investigators who have experienced false-negative and false-positive findings propagate the combined use of direct and culture methods. Yet large collaborative studies have shown that in approximately two-thirds of diagnostic cases only one procedure is applied. Moreover, the accuracy of a cytogenetic investigation depends not only on the ontogenetic origin of the tissues investigated, but also on interacting factors such as the ‘a priori risk’ and the ‘predictive value of a cytogenetic finding’. On this basis a differentiated prenatal diagnostic procedure is discussed, including either sole short-term culture (STC), combined STC and long-term culture (LTC), primary amniocentesis (AC), or primary percutaneous umbilical blood sampling (PUBS). The predictive value of the cytogenetic diagnosis from CVS varies significantly dependent on the a priori risk of a chromosome aberration and, in the case of an abnormal karyotype, on the specific chromosome involved. A non-mosaic and ‘non-lethal’ trisomy detected in STC is highly representative of the embryo/fetus, but there are exceptions of limited predictive value, e.g., trisomy 18. Guided by the strategy of an optional follow-up by LTC, AC, or PUBS in 1317 successive CV samplings, we are not aware of a false-negative diagnosis, but probably had one false-positive diagnosis: 47,XXY after STC; 46,XY after LTC. When referring to the rate of fetuses with an unbalanced karyotype expected in the different indication groups, a relative increase of false-positive findings in the very-low-risk group (maternal age ⩽35 years of age) and of false-negative findings in the very-high-risk group (abnormal ultrasonographic findings) of pregnant women when only performing CVS becomes obvious. Because of this dilemma, AC or—especially in the latter group—PUBS might be primarily offered to these indication groups instead of CVS.