Fusing strategic risk and futures methods to inform long-term strategic planning: case of water utilities

Risks and futures methods have complementary strengths as tools for managing strategic decisions under uncertainty. When combined, these tools increase organisational competency to evaluate and manage long-term risks, improving the flexibility and agility of the organisation to deal with gross uncertainties. Here, we set out a framework to guide the assessment of strategic risks for long-term business planning, based on its application at Portugal’s largest water utility, Empresa Portuguesa das Águas Livres. Our approach extends strategic risk assessment by incorporating scenario planning—a futures approach used to help the utility move beyond single point forecast of risks to focus on critical dimensions of uncertainty that are fundamental to the resilience of corporate objectives and their vulnerability to external pressures. We demonstrate how we combine two complementary approaches—risk and futures—and use them to assess (i) how a set of baseline strategic risks for a water utility evolves under alternative futures, (ii) the aggregate corporate-level risk exposure, and (iii) the process and responses needed to manage multiple, interdependent strategic risks. The framework offers a corporate approach to evolving strategic risks and improves a utility’s (i) knowledge of uncertainties, (ii) ability to assess the impacts of external developments over long time horizons and the consequences of actions and (iii) degree of flexibility to adapt to possible future challenges. The framework supports risk managers in their long-term strategic planning, through the appraisal and management of multiple, interdependent long-term strategic risks and can be replicated in other organisational contexts to bridge operational and corporate perspectives of enterprise risk.

     

Analysis of volatile organic compounds in water,waste water and an industrial effluent

Three analytical methods have been evaluated for the determination of volatile organic compounds in water. These techniques have been subsequently applied to the study of a trade effluent discharge problem.     

Measuring diversity: the importance of species similarity

Realistic measures of biodiversity should reflect not only the relative abundances of species, but also the differences between them. We present a natural family of diversity measures taking both factors into account. This is not just another addition to the already long list of diversity indices. Instead, a single formula subsumes many of the most popular indices, including Shannon's, Simpson's, species richness, and Rao's quadratic entropy. These popular indices can then be used and understood in a unified way, and the relationships between them are made plain. The new measures are, moreover, effective numbers, so that percentage changes and ratio comparisons of diversity value are meaningful. We advocate the use of diversity profiles, which provide a faithful graphical representation of the shape of a community; they show how the perceived diversity changes as the emphasis shifts from rare to common species. Communities can usefully be compared by comparing their diversity profiles. We show by example that this is a far more subtle method than any relying on a single statistic. Some ecologists view diversity indices with suspicion, questioning whether they are biologically meaningful. By dropping the naive assumption that distinct species have nothing in common, working with effective numbers, and using diversity profiles, we arrive at a system of diversity measurement that should lay much of this suspicion to rest.