Modelling spatial zero-inflated continuous data with an exponentially compound Poisson process

A parsimonious model is presented as an alternative to delta approaches to modelling zero-inflated continuous data. The data model relies on an exponentially compound Poisson process, also called the law of leaks (LOL). It represents the process of sampling resources that are spatially distributed as Poisson distributed patches, each containing a certain quantity of biomass drawn from an exponential distribution. In an application of the LOL, two latent structures are proposed to account for spatial dependencies between zero values at different scales within a hierarchical Bayesian framework. The LOL is compared to the delta-gamma (ΔΓ) distribution using bottom-trawl survey data. Results of this case study emphasize that the LOL provides slightly better fits to learning samples with a very high proportion of zero values and small strictly positive abundance data. Additionally, it offers better predictions of validation samples.     

Adaptation potential of ecosystem-based management to climate change in the eastern Canadian boreal forest

Ecosystem-based management (EBM) of forests is gaining acceptance for its focus on the maintenance of the long-term integrity of ecosystem processes, but climate change challenges this view because of its impacts on these very processes. We have therefore evaluated the robustness of EBM to projected climate change, considering the role of climate on forest growth and fire regime in a boreal forest of eastern Canada. A climate sensitive growth index model was calibrated for three commercial species and used to project the evolution of merchantable volume for two climate scenarios (B1 and A2) under conventional and EBM strategies. Current burn rate and burn rates under future climate scenarios were also considered. Under the most extreme projected climate scenario, the periodic timber supply could be reduced by up to 79% through direct (growth reduction) and indirect (fire) effects. However, ecological indicators show that EBM is a more robust forest management strategy than conventional one demonstrating its adaptation potential to climate change at least in the short term.     

An umbilical cord teratoma in a 17-week-old fetus

A therapeutic abortion was conducted on a 17-week-old male fetus with a large umbilical cord teratoma associated with an exomphalos. A review of the literature revealed ten other cases of umbilical cord teratoma and shows that these tumors have a very polymorphic presentation. Four fetuses and infants died from various causes indicating that there is a need for close follow-up of pregnancies with umbilical cord teratoma. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Toxicities of 48 pharmaceuticals and their freshwater and marine environmental assessment in northwestern France

A risk assessment for freshwater and marine ecosystems is presented for 48 pharmaceutical compounds, belonging to 16 therapeutic classes, and prescribed in northwestern France. Ecotoxicity data were obtained on two freshwater organisms, i.e., crustacean Daphnia magna and the green algae Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata, and on two marine organisms, i.e., the crustacean Artemia salina and the diatom Skeletonema marinoi. Measured environmental concentrations (MEC), in the Orne River and sea off Merville-Franceville in the Basse-Normandie region, were compared to the predicted environmental concentrations (PEC). Predicted no-effect concentrations (PNEC) were derived from acute data for each compound. Then, a risk assessment for each compound and the mixture was performed by calculating risk quotients (RQ as PEC or MEC/PNEC ratio). Results showed that no immediate acute toxicities were expected even if some compounds displayed strong toxicities at very low concentrations. Antibiotics, antidepressants, and antifungals would deserve attention because of their high or median ecological risk suspected on marine and freshwater ecosystems. Marine ecosystems would be more sensitive to pharmaceutical residues.     

What is the best biomarker to assess arsenic exposure via drinking water?

Arsenic (As) is a ubiquitous element. The current WHO guideline for As in drinking water is 10 μg/L. Furthermore, about 130 million people have only access to drinking water containing more than 10 gAs/L. Although numerous studies have shown the related adverse effects of As, sensitive appropriate biomarkers are still required for studies of environmental epidemiology. A review of the literature has shown that various biomarkers are used for such research. Their limits and advantages are highlighted in this paper: (i) the detection of As or its derivatives in the blood is an indication of the dose ingested but it is not evidence of chronic intoxication. (ii) The detection of As in urine is an indispensible procedure because it is a good marker for internal dose. It has been demonstrated to correlate well for a number of chronic effects related to As levels in drinking water. However confounding factors must be taken into account to avoid misinterpretation and this may require As speciation. (iii) As in the hair and nails reflects the level of long term exposure but it is difficult to relate the level with the dose ingested. (iv) Some studies showed a correlation between urinary As and urinary and blood porphyrins. However, it is difficult to use only porphyrins as a biomarker in a population survey carried out without doing further studies. (v) Genotoxic effects are based on the characterization of these potential effects. Most studies have detected increases in DNA damage, sister chromatid exchange, micronuclei or chromosomal aberrations in populations exposed to As in drinking water. Micronuclei assay is the technique of choice to follow these populations, because it is sensitive and easy to use.To conclude, whatever epidemiological studies are, the urinary and toenail biomarkers are useful to provide indications of internal dose. Moreover, micronuclei assay can be complementary use as biomarker of early effects.