A statistical model for predicting PM2.5 for the western United States

ABSTRACT

A new statistical model for predicting daily ground level fine scale particulate matter (PM_2.5) concentrations at monitoring sites in the western United States was developed and tested operationally during the 2016 and 2017 wildfire seasons. The model is site-specific, using a multiple linear regression schema that relies on the previous day’s PM_2.5 value, along with fire and smoke related variables from satellite observations. Fire variables include fire radiative power (FRP) and the National Fire Danger Rating System Energy Release Component index. Smoke variables, in addition to ground monitored PM_2.5, include aerosol optical depth (AOD) and smoke plume perimeters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Hazard Mapping System. The overall statistical model was inspired by a similar system developed for British Columbia (BC) by the BC Center for Disease Control, but it has been heavily modified and adapted to work in the United States. On average, our statistical model was able to explain 78% of the variance in daily ground level PM_2.5. A novel method for implementation of this model as an operational forecast system was also developed and was tested and used during the 2016 and 2017 wildfire seasons. This method focused on producing a continuously-updating prediction that incorporated the latest information available throughout the day, including both updated remote sensing data and real-time PM_2.5 observations. The diurnal pattern of performance of this model shows that even a few hours of data early in the morning can substantially improve model performance.

Implications: Wildfire smoke events produce significant air quality impacts across the western United States each year impacting millions. We present and evaluate a statistical model for making updating predictions of fine particulate (PM_2.5) levels during smoke events. These predictions run hourly and are being used by smoke incident specialists assigned to wildfire operations, and may be of interest to public health officials, air quality regulators, and the public. Predictions based on this model will be available on the web for the 2019 western U.S. wildfire season this summer.     

Characterizing sources of nitrate leaching from an irrigated dairy farm in Merced County, California

Dairy farms comprise a complex landscape of groundwater pollution sources. The objective of our work is to develop a method to quantify nitrate leaching to shallow groundwater from different management units at dairy farms. Total nitrate loads are determined by the sequential calibration of a sub-regional scale and a farm-scale three-dimensional groundwater flow and transport model using observations at different spatial scales. These observations include local measurements of groundwater heads and nitrate concentrations in an extensive monitoring well network, providing data at a scale of a few meters and measurements of discharge rates and nitrate concentrations in a tile-drain network, providing data integrated across multiple farms. The various measurement scales are different from the spatial scales of the calibration parameters, which are the recharge and nitrogen leaching rates from individual management units. The calibration procedure offers a conceptual framework for using field measurements at different spatial scales to estimate recharge N concentrations at the management unit scale. It provides a map of spatially varying dairy farming impact on groundwater nitrogen. The method is applied to a dairy farm located in a relatively vulnerable hydrogeologic region in California. Potential sources within the dairy farm are divided into three categories, representing different manure management units: animal exercise yards and feeding areas (corrals), liquid manure holding ponds, and manure irrigated forage fields. Estimated average nitrogen leaching is 872 kg/ha/year, 807 kg/ha/year and 486 kg/ha/year for corrals, ponds and fields respectively. Results are applied to evaluate the accuracy of nitrogen mass balances often used by regulatory agencies to assess groundwater impacts. Calibrated leaching rates compare favorably to field and farm scale nitrogen mass balances. These data and interpretations provide a basis for developing improved management strategies.     

FUNDAMENTAL INVESTIGATION OF GRAVITY CURRENTS WITH VARYING DENSITY1

ABSTRACT: A one-dimensional, gradually varying, non-uniform, flow equation is developed to describe the movement of a variable density gravity current through a reservoir. A linearly decreasing underflow density function is used to investigate the effect of in-reservoir density reduction on typical gravity current flow profiles. Only two types of flow profiles are found to exist for varying density underflows: Type I profiles where the underflow asymptotically approaches a horizontal surface, and Type III profiles where the underflow vertically approaches critical depth. Type I profiles pass through a transitional depth as the underflow density approaches that of the upper layer. Results indicate that a reservoir can be segmented into four distinct spatial regions with well defined flow profile characteristics. The location of these regions allows the sketching of interfacial flow profiles along with identifying the location of transitional depth conditions. Transitional depth conditions are utilized as the logical starting point for Type I flow profile numerical computation. (KEY WORDS: density; fluid flow; reservoirs; hydraulics.)     

New and versatile optical-immunoassay instrumentation for water monitoring

This article is a review of new and versatile optical-immunoassay instrumentation for water monitoring developed through two European Union projects, RIver ANAlyser (RIANA) and Automated Water Analyser Computer Supported System (AWACSS). Both projects utilise immunoassay techniques to isolate the analytes and Total Internal Reflection Fluorescence (TIRF) to quantify them. Completed in 1999, the RIANA project developed a sensitive and cost-effective analytical system capable of simultaneous detection of multiple-analytes in real-world water samples. The AWACSS project has been in progress since 2001 and is developing rugged-but-sensitive instrumentation that will detect up to 30 analytes simultaneously, will operate unattended, and will have networking capability.     

The interaction between some human obstacles and birds

Some of the literature pertinent to the interactions of birds of flight and man made obstacles, such as transmission lines is reviewed here. Some birds use these towers, poles, and buildings for nesting and perches. They also collide with them. Original observations presented here suggest that the environmental impacts of these types of obstacles on birds, and vice-versa, seem not due to the inability of the birds to perceive the obstacles, but rather that the birds are apparently distracted from a safe flight pattern by their own species, or by others. Editor's Note: Although this paper is quite specialized in comparison with many other articles published in Environmental Management, I feel it is a very useful overview of the problems and the literature related to bird collisions with manmade obstacles. It is hoped that the information presented by the Willards will be helpful to other workers who are perhaps engaged in preparing environmental impact statements concerning structures that could invite bird collisions.     

Derivation of ecotoxicity thresholds for uranium

Assessment of the risk of impact from most radionuclides is based on the total radiological dose rate to the organism of concern. However, for uranium (U) there can be greater risk from chemical toxicity than radiological toxicity (depending on the isotopic composition). Chemical ecotoxicity of U is dependent on several environmental parameters. The most important are carbonate content, because of the formation of soluble carbonate complexes, and divalent cation content (Ca++ and Mg++), because of their competitive interaction with the uranyl ion (UO2++). This study summarizes the literature available to set PNECs (predicted no-effect concentrations) for chemical toxicity of U to non-human biota. The corresponding radiological doses were estimated, and as expected chemical toxicity proved to be the greater concern. There were limited data from some types of biota; however, PNECs for the types of biota of interest were as follows: terrestrial plants--250 mg U kg(-1) dry soil; other soil biota--100 mg U kg(-1) dry soil; freshwater plants--0.005 mg U L(-1) water; freshwater invertebrates--0.005 mg U L(-1) water; freshwater benthos--100 mg U kg(-1) dry sediment; freshwater fish at water hardnesses of: <10 mg CaCO3 L(-1) (very soft water)--0.4 mg U L(-1) water; 10-100 mg CaCO3 L(-1) (soft water)--2.8 mg U L(-1) water; and >100 mg CaCO3 L(-1) (hard water)--23 mg U L(-1) water; or as a function of hardness--0.26 (hardness as mg CaCO3 L(-1); mammals--0.1 mg U kg(-1) body weight d(-1).     

Optimal Treatment Zone Moves During Enhanced Reductive Dechlorination in Fractured Bedrock

An enhanced bioremediation pilot test was implemented to study the efficacy of enhancing in situ reductive dechlorination of tetrachloroethene (PCE) in shallow bedrock where some intrinsic degradation to cis‐1,2‐dichloroethene (cis‐1,2‐DCE) was observed without further degradation to vinyl chloride or nontoxic ethene. Limited Dehalococcoides spp. cell concentrations were present within the study area prior to the gravity‐fed injection of an injectate of fermentable carbon substrates in native anaerobic groundwater. Direct connectivity between the injection well screen and performance monitoring well was evidenced and resulted in the degradation of nearly all PCE to cis‐1,2‐DCE, significant decrease in pH, and apparent inhibited Dehalococcoides spp. growth in the study area groundwater in the first six months. After 24 months, nearly all cis‐1,2‐DCE had degraded to nontoxic ethene, pH rebounded to more optimal levels, and abundant growth of Dehalococcoides spp. (6.8E05 cells/mL) and its functional gene expressions responsible for complete dechlorination were evident. The observations indicated initial poor dechlorination within the injection zone did not preclude effective treatment, allowing sufficient monitoring time showed the effective treatment zone (or more‐optimal fringe) first moved outward from the injection zone beyond the monitoring point and then receded back toward the point of injection over a period of two years. ©2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Scaling toxicity data across species

The response of various species to doses of chemicals can often give the impression that some (such as cattle in the case of molybdenum) are much more susceptible than others to these chemicals. These impressions usually rely on an underlying assumption that equivalent doses are based on mg of the chemical per kg body weight of the animal. That is, that doses scale as the first power of body weight. This assumption is more often wrong than right. When viewed in a more general way, where the scaling is proportional to a power of the body weight and the exponent determined empirically, it is often found that equivalent doses scale with an exponent in the range of 0.6 to 0.8. As a result, larger animals are indeed more susceptible to toxicity on a mg kg^–1 body weight basis, but this is not because of unique differences in the species, but only because of different body sizes. This method of scaling is called allometry or allometric scaling. An early version of this approach was based on body surface area where the exponent is 2/3. More recently, pharmacokinetics has revealed that the reason for the different response of larger animals is related to the slower metabolic and clearance rates for larger animals which give rise to larger biological half-lives for chemicals in the body and to higher tissue concentrations per given dose.     

Flame retardants and legacy contaminants in polar bears from Alaska, Canada, East Greenland and Svalbard, 2005-2008

Flame retardants and legacy contaminants were analyzed in adipose tissue from 11 circumpolar polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulations in 2005-2008 spanning Alaska east to Svalbard. Although 37 polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), total-(α)-hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD), 2 polybrominated biphenyls (PBBs), pentabromotoluene, pentabromoethylbenzene, hexabromobenzene, 1,2-bis(2,4,6-tribromophenoxy(ethane) and decabromodiphenyl ethane were screened, only 4 PBDEs, total-(α-)HBCD and BB153 were consistently found. Geometric mean ΣPBDE (4.6-78.4 ng/g lipid weight (lw)) and BB153 (2.5-81.1 ng/g lw) levels were highest in East Greenland (43.2 and 39.2 ng/g lipid weight (lw), respectively), Svalbard (44.4 and 20.9 ng/g lw) and western (38.6 and 30.1 ng/g lw) and southern Hudson Bay (78.4 and 81.1 ng/g lw). Total-(α)-HBCD levels (<0.3-41.1 ng/g lw) were lower than ΣPBDE levels in all subpopulations except in Svalbard, consistent with greater European HBCD use versus North American pentaBDE product use. ΣPCB levels were high relative to flame retardants as well as other legacy contaminants and increased from west to east (1797-10,537 ng/g lw). ΣCHL levels were highest among legacy organochlorine pesticides and relatively spatially uniform (765-3477 ng/g lw). ΣDDT levels were relatively low and spatially variable (31.5-206 ng/g lw). However, elevated proportions of p,p'-DDT to ΣDDT in Alaska and Beaufort Sea relative to other subpopulations suggested fresh inputs from vector control use in Asia and/or Africa. Comparing earlier circumpolar polar bear studies, ΣPBDE, total-(α)-HBCD, p,p'-DDE and ΣCHL levels consistently declined, whereas levels of other legacy contaminants did not. International regulations have clearly been effective in reducing levels of several legacy contaminants in polar bears relative to historical levels. However, slow or stalling declines of certain historic pollutants like PCBs and a complex mixture of "new" chemicals continue to be of concern to polar bear health and that of their arctic marine ecosystems.     

The worldwide availability of cobalt

The US Department of Interior, Bureau of Mines has evaluated the potential resource and annual availability of cobalt from 27 deposits or districts in 11 market economy countries. More than 90% of primary cobalt production from market economy countries, mainly by-product output from copper and nickel operations, was analysed. The producing operations evaluated in this study were expected to produce about 19 000 t of cobalt in 1989, significantly less than the available capacity of 31 000 t. Approximately 1200 000 t of cobalt is potentially recoverable at the demonstrated resource level. Very large additional resources exist, especially in laterite deposits, but are at the inferred level.