Benefits of protected areas for nonbreeding waterbirds adjusting their distributions under climate warming

Climate warming is driving changes in species distributions and community composition. Many species have a so-called climatic debt, that is, shifts in range lag behind shifts in temperature isoclines. Inside protected areas (PAs), community changes in response to climate warming can be facilitated by greater colonization rates by warm-dwelling species, but also mitigated by lowering extirpation rates of cold-dwelling species. An evaluation of the relative importance of colonization-extirpation processes is important to inform conservation strategies that aim for both climate debt reduction and species conservation. We assessed the colonization-extirpation dynamics involved in community changes in response to climate inside and outside PAs. To do so, we used 25 years of occurrence data of nonbreeding waterbirds in the western Palearctic (97 species, 7071 sites, 39 countries, 1993–2017). We used a community temperature index (CTI) framework based on species thermal affinities to investigate species turnover induced by temperature increase. We determined whether thermal community adjustment was associated with colonization by warm-dwelling species or extirpation of cold-dwelling species by modeling change in standard deviation of the CTI (CTI_SD). Using linear mixed-effects models, we investigated whether communities in PAs had lower climatic debt and different patterns of community change than communities outside PAs. For CTI and CTI_SD combined, communities inside PAs had more species, higher colonization, lower extirpation, and lower climatic debt (16%) than communities outside PAs. Thus, our results suggest that PAs facilitate 2 independent processes that shape community dynamics and maintain biodiversity. The community adjustment was, however, not sufficiently fast to keep pace with the large temperature increases in the central and northeastern western Palearctic. Our results underline the potential of combining CTI and CTI_SD metrics to improve understanding of the colonization-extirpation patterns driven by climate warming.     

Hydropower development in the lower Mekong basin: alternative approaches to deal with uncertainty

Governments in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) face decisions that involve trade-offs between the economic benefits from hydropower generation and potentially irreversible negative impacts on the ecosystems that provide livelihoods and food security to the rural poor. As a means of comparing these trade-offs, a sensitivity analysis of the benefit-cost analysis of certain Basin Development Plan (BDP) scenarios was undertaken. By changing some key assumptions in the BDP about discount rates, the value of lost capture fisheries, future aquaculture production in the LMB, and the value of lost ecosystem services from wetlands to reflect the full range of uncertainty, at the extremes, there could be a reversal of the Net Present Value (NPV) estimates of the scenarios from a positive $33 billion to negative $274 billion. This report recommends when dealing with large-scale, complex projects: a more comprehensive, integrated human and natural systems framework and adaptive management approach to LMB planning and development that deals with the entire watershed; a more comprehensive analysis and treatment of risk and uncertainty; a more thorough assessment of the value of direct and indirect ecosystem services; a broader set of scenarios that embody alternative models of development, broader stakeholder participation; and better treatment of the effects of infrastructure construction on local cultures and the poor.     

Contribution of hydrolysis in the abiotic attenuation of RDX and HMX in coastal waters

Sinking of military ships, dumping of munitions during the two World Wars, and military training have resulted in the undersea deposition of numerous unexploded ordnances (UXOs). Leaching of energetic compounds such as hexahydro-1,3,5-trinitro-1,3,5-triazine (RDX) and octahydro-1,3,5,7-tetranitro-1,3,5,7-tetrazocine (HMX) from these UXOs may cause adverse ecological effects so that the long-term fate of these chemicals in the sea should be known. The present study assesses the contribution of alkaline hydrolysis into the natural attenuation of RDX and HMX in coastal waters. Alkaline hydrolysis rates were shown to be unaffected by the presence of sodium chloride, the most common component in marine waters. Kinetic parameters (E(a), ln A, k(2)) quantified for the alkaline hydrolysis of RDX and HMX in deionized water (30-50 degrees C, pH 10-12) agreed relatively well with abiotic degradation rates determined in sterilized natural coastal waters (50 and 60 degrees C, variable salinity) even if the latter were generally slightly faster than the former. Furthermore, similar products (HCHO, NO(2)(-), O(2)NNHCH(2)NHCHO) were obtained on alkaline hydrolysis in deionized water and abiotic degradation in coastal waters. These two findings suggested that degradation of nitramines in sterilized natural coastal waters, away from light, was mainly governed by alkaline hydrolysis. Kinetic calculations using the present parameters showed that alkaline hydrolysis of RDX and HMX in marine waters at 10 degrees C would respectively take 112 +/- 10 and 2408 +/- 217 yr to be completed (99.0%). We concluded that under natural conditions hydrolysis should not contribute significantly to the natural attenuation of HMX in coastal waters whereas it could play an active role in the natural attenuation of RDX.     

Large carnivore hunting and the social license to hunt

The social license to operate framework considers how society grants or withholds informal permission for resource extractors to exploit publicly owned resources. We developed a modified model, which we refer to as the social license to hunt (SLH). In it we similarly consider hunters as operators, given that wildlife are legally considered public resources in North America and Europe. We applied the SLH model to examine the controversial hunting of large carnivores, which are frequently killed for trophies. Killing for trophies is widespread, but undertaken by a minority of hunters, and can pose threats to the SLH for trophy-seeking carnivore hunters and potentially beyond. Societal opposition to large carnivore hunting relates not only to conservation concerns but also to misalignment between killing for trophies and dominant public values and attitudes concerning the treatment of animals. We summarized cases related to the killing of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos), wolves (Canis lupus), and other large carnivores in Canada, the United States, and Europe to illustrate how opposition to large carnivore hunting, now expressed primarily on social media, can exert rapid and significant pressure on policy makers and politicians. Evidence of the potential for transformative change to wildlife management and conservation includes proposed and realized changes to legislation, business practice, and wildlife policy, including the banning of some large carnivore hunts. Given that policy is ultimately shaped by societal values and attitudes, research gaps include developing increased insight into public support of various hunting policies beyond that derived from monitoring of social media and public polling. Informed by increased evidence, the SLH model can provide a conceptual foundation for predicting the likelihood of transient versus enduring changes to wildlife conservation policy and practice for a wide variety of taxa and contexts.     

Phytotoxicity of nitroaromatic energetic compounds freshly amended or weathered and aged in sandy loam soil

The toxicities of 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene (TNT), 1,3,5-trinitrobenzene (TNB), 2,4-dinitrotoluene (2,4-DNT), and 2,6-dinitrotoluene (2,6-DNT) to terrestrial plants alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.), Japanese millet (Echinochloa crusgalli L.), and perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne L.) were determined in Sassafras sandy loam soil using seedling emergence, fresh shoot, and dry mass measurement endpoints. A 13-week weathering and aging of energetic materials in soils, which included wetting and drying cycles, and exposure to sunlight of individual soil treatments, was incorporated into the study design to better reflect the soil exposure conditions in the field than toxicity determinations in freshly amended soils. Definitive toxicity tests showed that dinitrotoluenes were more phytotoxic for all plant species in freshly amended treatments based on EC20 values for dry shoot ranging from 3 to 24mgkg(-1) compared with values for TNB or TNT ranging from 43 to 62mgkg(-1). Weathering and aging of energetic materials (EMs) in soil significantly decreased the toxicity of TNT, TNB or 2,6-DNT to Japanese millet or ryegrass based on seedling emergence, but significantly increased the toxicity of all four EMs to all three plant species based on shoot growth. Exposure of the three plant species to relatively low concentrations of the four compounds initially stimulated plant growth before the onset of inhibition at greater concentrations (hormesis).