Forecasting volatility of carbon under EU ETS: a multi-phase study

Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - Carbon management is a strategic priority and organizations need to forecast carbon for that. We aim to find out the best ARIMA-GARCH model for...     

Seasonal and long-term variations in the body size of planktonic copepods in the northern Baltic Sea

Seasonal and long-term variations in the body size of planktonic copepods were studied in the northern Baltic Sea. The influence of temperature, salinity and phytoplankton concentration to the body size of Eurytemora affinis, Acartia bifilosa and Limnocalanus macrurus (Calanoida) was examined at three sea areas, differing in their hydrographical and trophic conditions (an archipelago area and an enclosed bay on the SW coast of Finland in 1992 and at an open sea station in the Gulf of Bothnia in 1991). There was an inverse relationship between copepod body length and temperature, while there was a direct effect of phytoplankton concentration. According to multiple regression analysis, the relative importance of these factors varied according to species, developmental stage and study area. In the archipelago area, copepod body size was mainly determined by temperature, while in the open Gulf of Bothnia, phytoplankton concentration was usually more important. Interannual variation in the summer body length of E. affinis and A. bifilosa was examined using samples collected over 18 years (1967 to 1984) in the archipelago area. In this analysis, the inverse relationship between water temperature and copepod body size disappeared; in E. affinis the average female length correlated positively with summer temperature. We suggest that the length and timing of the study period greatly influence the investigator's view of the factors regulating copepod body size.     

SO2 emission measurement with the European standard reference method,EN 14791, and alternative methods – observations from laboratory and field studies

EN 14791 is a European Standard Reference method for the measurement of SO₂ in emissions. This standard is based on a wet-chemical method in which SO₂ present in flue gases is absorbed into an absorption solution containing hydrogen peroxide, and analyzed as sulfates after sampling. This study presents the results obtained when three portable automated measuring systems (P-AMS), based on Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy, non-dispersive infrared (NDIR) and ultraviolet-fluorescence (UV) techniques, were compared to the Standard Reference Method for SO₂ (EN 14791) in order to verify whether they could be used as alternative methods (AM) to EN 14791. In the case of FTIR, the measurements were performed from hot and wet gas, without any conditioning. UV-fluorescence analyzers were equipped with dilution probes and one NDIR applied a permeation dryer, whereas the other had a chiller. Tests were carried out at concentration ranges from 0 to 200 mg/m³(n) and from 0 to 800 mg/m³(n) for testing of equivalency according to CEN/TS 14793 using a test bench. Equivalency test criteria were met for all tested P-AMS except for NDIR at the lower range. The SO₂ results measured with NDIR and the chiller were lower compared to the set-up with NDIR and permeation. This was most probably due to the chiller causing absorption of SO₂ in the condensate. Tests were also carried out at field conditions, measuring the SO₂ emissions from a boiler combusting mainly bark. The same phenomena were observed in these tests as during the test bench study, i.e. the measurement set-up with NDIR and the chiller gave the lowest results. These data demonstrated that the tested alternative methods (FTIR, UV-fluorescence, and NDIR) could be used instead of the standard reference method EN 14791, thus providing real-time calibration of automated measuring systems. It must however be emphasized that when measuring water-soluble gases, such as SO₂, the choice of suitable conditioning technique is critical in order to minimize losses of the studied component in the condensate.

Implications: Portable automated measuring systems (P-AMS) provide real-time information about emissions and their concentrations, thus offering significant advantages compared to wet-chemical methods. This study presents results which can be used as a validation protocol to show that the tested P-AMS techniques (FTIR, NDIR, UV-fluorescence) could be used instead of EN 14791 (CEN 2017a) as alternative methods (AM), when paying attention to the selection of an appropriate conditioning technique.     

A feasible method to assess inaccuracy caused by patchiness in water quality monitoring

Patchiness is a typical property of water quality in lakes. However, in conventional water quality monitoring, patchiness is usually too expensive to take into account, due to the high number of required samples. This study examines a feasible methodology developed for estimating the representativeness of discrete chlorophyll a measurements. Four spatially extensive data sets were collected from the Enonselkä basin of Lake Vesijärvi in Southern Finland, using a flow trough system with a fluorometer in a moving boat. Data sets were used to estimate (1) the spatial representativeness of discrete sampling; (2) the effect of varying sample size on the detected mean chlorophyll a concentration and on the observed proportion of variance. Spatial representativeness was assessed using semivariogram analysis. Results indicate that the spatial representativeness of discrete sampling can remain undesirably low. Furthermore, in monitoring programs involving just one or only a few samples, there is a significant risk of obtaining a false estimate for the mean value and variance of chlorophyll a concentration over the whole monitoring area.     

Emission measurements of heavy metals with the European standard reference methods EN 14385 and EN 13211—observations from interlaboratory comparison (ILC) measurements performed at waste-to-energy plant in Finland

ABSTRACT

This study presents the heavy metal results obtained during Finnish interlaboratory comparison (ILC) measurements made during 2019. The aim of this measurement campaign was to verify the skills of accredited emission measurement teams and also to evaluate the challenges that stack testing teams face in the future when emission levels decrease. ILCs have been organized in Finland since the 1970s. ILCs provide an important platform for stack testing teams so that they can verify their measurement skills and also for the dissemination of knowledge. The knowledge about the measurement standards and their requirements has improved among stack testing teams during past years in Finland. As emission levels get lower, they still need to pay more attention to some quality assurance procedures, e.g. to method and field blanks. Based on the observations of this ILC for heavy metals it can be noted that the challenges that stack testing teams face are related to the fact that no guidance is given in the standard reference methods EN 13211 and EN 14385 for example on the calculation of measurement uncertainties and how results below limit of quantification should be taken into account. These reference methods were suitable for their purpose at the time they were validated. However, emission levels are now more stringent and it is challenging to measure them with acceptable uncertainty criteria. As a consequence, there is a clear need for harmonized approaches in Europe for consistent implementation of standards and regulations. Key issues where guidance should be provided include realistic measurement uncertainties at low concentration levels, reporting low concentrations and guidance on how measurement uncertainties should be taken into account when the results are used for compliance assessment. The overall aim is to ensure that even with low emission levels, the emission measurement results would be transparent and robust throughout the EU.

Implications: Interlaboratory comparison measurements between stack testing teams are the most important tool to verify the quality of the measurements. Participation in an appropriate ILC is often mandatory to successfully achieve accreditation under ISO/IEC 17025. Such campaigns also provide an efficient platform for dissemination of knowledge. In addition, ILCs can be used to clarify the challenges that teams nowadays face when measuring low emission levels, thus creating important information for the revision work of standards.     

Prospective changes in irrigation water requirements caused by agricultural expansion and climate changes in the eastern arc mountains of Kenya

Water resources and land use are closely linked with each other and with regional climate, assembling a very complex system. The understanding of the interconnecting relations involved in this system is an essential step for elaborating public policies that can effectively lead to the sustainable use of water resources. In this study, an integrated modelling framework was assembled in order to investigate potential impacts of agricultural expansion and climate changes on Irrigation Water Requirements (IWR) in the Taita Hills, Kenya. The framework comprised a land use change simulation model, a reference evapotranspiration model and synthetic precipitation datasets generated through a Monte Carlo simulation. In order to generate plausible climate change scenarios, outputs from General Climate Models were used as reference to perturbing the Monte Carlo simulations. The results indicate that throughout the next 20 years the low availability of arable lands in the hills will drive agricultural expansion to areas with higher IWR in the foothills. If current trends persist, agricultural areas will occupy roughly 60% of the study area by 2030. This expansion will increase by approximately 40% the annual water volume necessary for irrigation. Climate change may slightly decrease crops' IWR in April and November by 2030, while in May a small increase will likely be observed. The integrated assessment of these environmental changes allowed a clear identification of priority regions for land use allocation policies and water resources management.     

The Role of Large Carnivore Committees in Legitimising Large Carnivore Management in Finland and Sweden

Many countries, including Sweden and Finland, are decentralizing the management of large carnivore species within their borders and emphasizing the role of stakeholder participation in legitimizing formal policy. Regional large carnivore committees (RLCCs), including representatives of authorities and non-governmental organizations, are essential to these endeavors. These committees are formally constituted in Sweden, whereas in Finland, they are informally developed from the bottom-up. In both countries, the declared roles of these committees are consultative. A comparative study based on survey data is described here, which address the question of how procedural legitimacy is shaped and maintained in institutional settings with different origins, such as top-down or bottom-up. The results indicate no clear difference in the representatives’ general satisfaction with the country-specific arrangements. Notable differences were found in specific perceptions of the clarity and purposes of the RLCCs. In both countries, the perceived rationale for the establishment of RLCCs emphasized the knowledge and expertise of the represented interest groups and authorities. Between the countries, similarities were also found in the strong links between overall satisfaction and personally perceived success and progress in communication and information exchange, i.e., deliberative processes. The capacity of the RLCCs to improve trust and acceptability with regard to different opinions was viewed as a key element underlying satisfactory RLCC activities, irrespective of the institutional settings.