A Critique of Estimating Future Costs Using Most Likely Value

ASTM E2137 (Standard Guide for Estimating Monetary Costs and Liability for Environmental Matters, or E2137) is the guidance for developing estimates of future environmental costs. E2137 provides a hierarchy of cost estimation approaches, and expresses an explicit preference for the use of probabilistic cost analysis to develop expected values for environmental costs. Dr. Ram and his colleagues have published an article (Remediation Journal, Autumn 2013) which rejects the use of EV analysis, arguing that while “good in principle” it has little practical value because it is nearly impossible to develop supportable probabilities. The E2137 principles and processes have been used for more than a decade in the context of addressing future environmental costs, yet their view of E2137 renders the standard meaningless. We conclude that the deficiency is not in the ASTM standard, and that when properly constructed, probabilistic analyses can be used to develop expected values with supportable probabilities. ©2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Exploratory Analysis of the Winter Chemistry of Five Lakes on the North Slope of Alaska1

Abstract: Lakes are important water resources on the North Slope of Alaska. Freshwater is required for oilfield production as well as exploration, which occurs largely on ice roads and pads. Since most North Slope lakes are shallow, the quantity and quality of the water under ice at the end of winter are important environmental management issues. Currently, water‐use permits are a function of the presence of overwintering fish populations, and their sensitivity to low oxygen concentrations. Sampling of five North Slope lakes during the winter of 2004‐2005 shed some light on the winter chemistry of four lakes that were used as water supplies and one undisturbed lake. Field analysis was conducted for oxygen, conductivity, pH, and temperature throughout the lake depth, as well as ice thickness and water depth. Water samples were retrieved from the lakes and analyzed for Na, Ca, K, Mg, Fe, dissolved‐organic carbon, and alkalinity in the laboratory. Lake properties, rather than pumping, were the best predictors of oxygen depletion, with the highest dissolved‐oxygen levels maintained in the lake with the lowest concentration of constituents. Volume weighted mean dissolved‐oxygen concentrations ranged from 4 to 94% of saturation in March. Dissolved oxygen and specific conductance data suggested that the lakes began to refresh in May.     

The short-term effects of prescribed burning on biomass removal and the release of nitrogen and phosphorus in a treatment wetland

Nutrient removal by constructed wetlands can decline over time due to the accumulation of organic matter. A prescribed burn is one of many management strategies used to remove detritus in macrophyte-dominated systems. We quantified the short-term effects on effluent water quality and the amount of aboveground detritus removed from a prescribed burn event. Surface water outflow concentrations were approximately three times higher for P and 1.5 times higher for total Kjeldhal nitrogen (TKN) following the burn event when compared to the control. The length of time over which the fire effect was significant (P < 0.05), 3 d for TKN and up to 23 d for P fractions. Over time, the concentration of soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) in the effluent decreased, but was compensated with increases in dissolved organic phosphorus (DOP) and particulate phosphorus (PP), such that net total P remained the same. Total aboveground biomass decreased by 68.5% as a result of the burn, however, much of the live vegetation was converted to standing dead material. These results demonstrate that a prescribed burn can significantly decrease the amount of senescent organic matter in a constructed wetland. However, short-term nutrient releases following the burn could increase effluent nutrient concentrations. Therefore, management strategies should include hydraulically isolating the burned area immediately following the burn event to prevent nutrient export.     

Effect of shore position and environmental metal levels on body metal burdens in the barnacle, Elminius modestus

Body (thorax and prosoma) weight, shell growth, and Zn, Cu, Fe, Mn and Ca levels were measured in artificially settled Elminius modestus over a 14-month period following transfer to high, mid and low tide positions in the uncontaminated Menai Strait and two mid tide sites within a Zn and Cu polluted bay on the North West coast of Anglesey. Barnacles showed higher mortality and slower growth at the upper shore position than at any other site. There was no evidence of Zn and Cu regulation by the bodies or shells, and both seemed to reflect environmental levels. Body metal levels were lowest in early winter and the highest second year values were found in January (Zn), March (Cu, Fe) or May (Ca). Higher shore barnacles contained larger concentrations of Zn than mid or low tide animals. Differences in feeding activity and the amount of testes may account for these variations. Reciprocal transplants between polluted and 'clean' sites indicate that body Cu and Zn accumulation and loss was very rapid. Spatial and temporal changes in shell metal levels closely mirror that of the body.     

Microbiological characteristics in a zero-valent iron reactive barrier

Zero-valent iron (Fe⁰)-based permeable reactive barriertreatment has been generating great interest for passivegroundwater remediation, yet few studies have paid particularattention to the microbial activity and characteristics withinand in the vicinity of the Fe⁰-barrier matrix. The presentstudy was undertaken to evaluate the microbial population andcommunity composition in the reducing zone of influence byFe⁰ corrosion in the barrier at the Oak Ridge Y-12 Plantsite. Both phospholipid fatty acids and DNA analyses were usedto determine the total microbial population and microbialfunctional groups, including sulfate-reducing bacteria,denitrifying bacteria, and methanogens, in groundwater andsoil/iron core samples. A diverse microbial community wasidentified in the strongly reducing Fe⁰ environment despitea relatively high pH condition within the Fe⁰ barrier (up topH 10). In comparison with those found in the backgroundsoil/groundwater samples, the enhanced microbial populationranged from 1 to 3 orders of magnitude and appeared to increase from upgradient of the barrier to downgradient soil. Inaddition, microbial community composition appeared to change overtime, and the bacterial types of microorganismsincreased consistently as the barrier aged. DNA analysisindicated the presence of sulfate-reducing and denitrifyingbacteria in the barrier and its surrounding soil. However, theactivity of methanogens was found to be relatively low,presumably as a result of the competition by sulfate/metal-reducing bacteria and denitrifying bacteria because of the unlimited availability of sulfate and nitrate in the site groundwater. Results of this study provide evidenceof a diverse microbial population within and in the vicinity ofthe iron barrier, although the important roles of microbial activity, either beneficially or detrimentally, on the longevityand enduring efficiency of the Fe⁰ barriers are yet to be evaluated.     

Incorporating natural capital into economy-wide impact analysis: a case study from Alberta

Traditionally, decision-makers have relied on economic impactestimates derived from conventional economy-wide models. Conventional models lack the environmental linkages necessary for examining environmental stewardship and economic sustainability, and in particular the ability to assess the impact of policies on natural capital. This study investigatesenvironmentally extended economic impact estimation on a regionalscale using a case study region in the province of Alberta knownas the Foothills Model Forest (FMF). Conventional economic impactmodels are environmentally extended in pursuit of enhancingpolicy analysis and local decision-making. It is found that theflexibility of the computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelingapproach offers potential for environmental extension, with a solid grounding in economic theory. The CGE approach may be the tool of the future for more complete integrated environment andeconomic impact assessment.     

Sulphate, Nitrogen and Base Cation Budgets at 21 Forested Catchments in Canada, the United States and Europe

To assess the concern over declining base cation levels in forest soils caused by acid deposition, input-output budgets (1990s average) for sulphate (SO₄), inorganic nitrogen (NO₃-N; NH₄-N), calcium (Ca), magnesium (Mg) and potassium (K) were synthesised for 21 forested catchments from 17 regions in Canada, the United States and Europe. Trend analysis was conducted on monthly ion concentrations in deposition and runoff when more than 9 years of data were available (14 regions, 17 sites). Annual average SO₄ deposition during the 1990s ranged between 7.3 and 28.4 kg ha⁻¹ per year, and inorganic nitrogen (N) deposition was between 2.8 and 13.8 kg ha⁻¹ per year, of which 41–67% was nitrate (NO₃-N). Over the period of record, SO₄ concentration in deposition decreased in 13/14 (13 out of 14 total) regions and SO₄ in runoff decreased at 14/17 catchments. In contrast, NO₃-N concentrations in deposition decreased in only 1/14 regions, while NH₄-N concentration patterns varied; increasing at 3/14 regions and decreasing at 2/14 regions. Nitrate concentrations in runoff decreased at 4/17 catchments and increased at only 1 site, whereas runoff levels of NH₄-N increased at 5/17 catchments. Decreasing trends in deposition were also recorded for Ca, Mg, and K at many of the catchments and on an equivalent basis, accounted for up to 131% (median 22%) of the decrease in acid anion deposition. Base cation concentrations in streams generally declined over time, with significant decreases in Ca, Mg and K occurring at 8, 9 and 7 of 17 sites respectively, which accounted for up to 133% (median 48%) of the decrease in acid anion concentration. Sulphate export exceeded input at 18/21 catchments, likely due to dry deposition and/or internal sources. The majority of N in deposition (31–100%; median 94%) was retained in the catchments, although there was a tendency for greater NO₃-N leaching at sites receiving higher (<7 kg ha^-1 per year) bulk inorganic N deposition. Mass balance calculations show that export of Ca and Mg in runoff exceeds input at all 21 catchments, but K export only exceeds input at 16/21 sites. Estimates of base cation weathering were available for 18 sites. When included in the mass balance calculation, Ca, Mg and K exports exceeded inputs at 14, 10 and 2 sites respectively. Annual Ca and Mg losses represent appreciable proportions of the current exchangeable soil Ca and Mg pools, although losses at some of the sites likely occur from weathering reactions beneath the rooting zone and there is considerable uncertainty associated with mineral weathering estimates. Critical loads for sulphur (S) and N, using a critical base cation to aluminium ratio of 10 in soil solution, are currently exceeded at 7 of the 18 sites with base cation weathering estimates. Despite reductions in SO₄ and H⁺ deposition, mass balance estimates indicate that acid deposition continues to acidify soils in many regions with losses of Ca and Mg of primary concern. The U.S. Government's right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty free licence in and to any copyright is acknowledged. The Canadian Crown reserves the right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty free licence in and to any copyright.     

Ambient air concentrations of PCDDs,PCDFs, coplanar PCBs,and PAHs at the Mississippi Sandhill Crane National Wildlife Refuge,Jackson County,Mississippi

Our objective was to determine the levels of selected airborne contaminants in ambient air at the Mississippi Sandhill Crane National Wildlife Refuge, Mississippi, that might be affecting the health of endangered cranes living there. Two high-volume air samplers were operated at separate locations on the Refuge during May–September 1991. The sampling media were micro-quartz filters in combination with polyurethane foam plugs. Composite bimonthly samples from each station were analyzed for polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), dibenzofurans (PCDFs), coplanar polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). Overall, residue concentrations were low. The toxic PCDD isomer 2,3,7,8-tetra-CDD was not detected, nor was penta-CDD. There was no difference (P>0.05) in residue concentrations between stations or over time and meteorological parameters were not correlated with residue concentrations. Because contaminant levels and patterns may differ seasonally, we recommend that air samples collected during winter months also be analyzed for these same chemical groups.     

monitoring bioaccumulation of contaminants in the belted kingfisher (ceryle alcyon)

The belted kingfisher (Ceryle alcyon), acommon piscivore in the eastern United States, hasbecome a common endpoint in ecological riskassessments (ERA) because of their high consumptionof potentially contaminated aquatic prey. Whilebioaccumulation data and biosurveys may be used tosupport conclusions of ERAs for kingfishers, thereare currently no published data on contaminantconcentrations in kingfishers. Additionally,methods available for collecting biological samples(e.g., feathers, eggs, food debris, etc.) fromkingfisher burrows can be detrimental to thereproductive success of the birds. We present amethod for obtaining samples from burrows during orfollowing the nesting season. The method wasapplied to kingfisher burrows on the Oak RidgeReservation (ORR) in eastern Tennessee. Feathers,eggshells, and nestlings were collected from burrows and analyzed. In addition, carcasses ofthree adult kingfishers found dead on the ORR wereanalyzed. Metals and radionuclides were accumulatedby both juvenile and adult birds. Body burdens ofcadmium, lead, and cesium-137 in adult birds were belowlevels associated with toxicity. Concentrations of selenium and mercury were observed at potentiallytoxic levels. Contaminants in eggshells andnestling feathers indicate exposure, however, thereis insufficient information to evaluate thetoxicological significance of this contamination.National Laboratory Oak Ridge National Laboratory is managed for the U.S. Department of Energy by Lockheed Martin Energy Research Corp. under contract DE-AC05-96OR22464     

Obligations to animals are based on rights

Some feminist philosophers criticize the idea of human rights because, they allege, it encapsulates male bias; it is therefore misguided, in their view, to extend moral rights to non-human animals. I argue that the feminist criticism is misguided. Ideas are not biased in favour of men simply because they originate with men, nor are ideas themselves biased in favour of men because men have used them prejudicially. As for the position that women should abandon theories of rights and embrace an ethic that emphasizes care: women who made this choice would not so much liberate themselves from the patriarchy as they would conform to its representation of women as emotional, subjective and irrational. There is, then, no good reason to withhold ascribing rights to non-human animals, based on the criticisms of rights made by some feminists.Some of the material in the discussion of the feminist critique of rights originally appeared in my The Case for Animal Rights: A Decade's Passing inA Quarter Century of Value Inquiry: Presidential Addresses of the American Society of Value Inquiry, edited by Richard T. Hull, pp. 451–455. Amsterdam and Atlanta, GA: Rodopi, 1994. These passages are reprinted with the permission of the editor and publisher, whose thoughtful co-operation is gratefully acknowledged.